Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Pennant" points to a new high
8/1/2016

The price has faced a resistance at 1.1186, so we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern here. Therefore, bulls are likely going to move on towards the next resistance near the main downtrend. However, if a pullback from this resistance happens later on, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.1221 – 1.1186.

There’s a consolidation in progress, which brought a “Pennant” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to break the last high, so we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.1222 – 1.1235. If bulls be stopped here, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local downward correction in the direction of a support at 1.1196 – 1.1166.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9846

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: consolidation going to move on
8/1/2016

We’ve got a consolidation between the nearest resistance at 1.3289 and support at 1.3116. So, the market is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens afterwards, the pair will probably try to have a support at 1.3116 once again.

The price is moving up and down. It’s likely that we’re going to see a local decline towards the Moving Average lines. At the same time, bulls will probably try to deliver a new high afterwards.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9847

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Shooting Star" calling bearish correction
8/1/2016

The price has found a lodgement under the 144 Moving Average, but we’ve got a “Hanging Man” and an “Engulfing”. However, a confirmation of both patterns is a quite weak. Therefore, the market is likely going to a local downward correction toward the 144 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal patterns so far, but considering the situation, which is taking place on the four-hour chart, it’s likely to have a local correction and a further bullish steps afterwards.

There’s a local consolidation inside the current upward movement. Also, we’ve got a “Shooting Star” and a “Doji” at the local high. So, if we see a pullback from the nearest support line, bears are likely going to deliver a correction, so we should keep an eye on the closest Moving Averages.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9856

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" acted as a support
8/1/2016

There’s a bullish “High Wave” at the local low, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, it’s likely that the price is going to test the nearest resistance level once again. If we see a pullback from this resistance, there’ll be an opportunity to have the next bearish rally. As we can see on the Daily chart, the pair found a lodgement under the last “Window”, so bears will probably try to move on.

We’ve got a support by the closest “Window” and also there’s an “Inverted Hammer” at the last low. This pattern confirmed enough, so it’s likely to see an upward correction in the short term. However, sellers will possibly test the “Window” once again, which can bring more reversal patterns.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9857

 

[riki143]

GBP/JPY reversed from resistance zone
8/1/2016

GBP/JPY falling inside minor impulse wave 5
Next sell target – 130.00
GBP/JPY has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave 5 – which started in June – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 142.00, upper daily Bollinger Band and 38.2% Fibonacci correction of impulse wave 3. The active impulse wave 5 belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from May.

GBP/JPY will, most likely, continue to fall toward the next sell target at the support level 130.00 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 3 in July).

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9859

 

[riki143]

GBP/CHF falling inside the C-wave
8/1/2016

GBP/CHF falling inside the C-wave
Next sell target - 1.2600
GBP/CHF continues to fall inside the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2), which started earlier this month – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.3200 (which stopped the previous wave 4, as can be seen from the daily GBP/CHF chart below) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the end of June.

GBP/CHF is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.2600 (forecast price calculated for the completion of impulse wave C). Strong resistance now stands at 1.3200.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9860

 

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for August 1-7
8/1/2016

US dollar posted a weekly decline. The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback versus a basket of currencies, declined by 2%.

Traders started selling American currency after the Federal Reserve’s meeting. The US central bank made it clear that it’s in no hurry to raise interest rates and despite economic recovery, inflation is still low. Moreover, US GDP for Q1 disappointed: according to the first estimate, American economy gained only 1.2% in Q2 versus 2.6% growth expected. As a result, the expectations of higher Fed’s interest rate in the coming months decreased. Interest rate futures see 30% chance that the US central bank will raise interest rates by the year-end, down from 43% on Thursday. Bond traders went even further predicting that the Fed won’t be able to pull off another interest-rate increase until September 2017.

In will certainly take time and good US data before the greenback will be able to start recovering after the disappointment. The Fed’s officials reminded the market that the regulator will keep looking on the incoming economic figures, so the release of American labor market statistics on Friday will be as important as it always is. Analysts believe that US economy added 180K jobs in July after a 287K gain in June. Other important data releases from the United States include ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, core PCE price index and personal spending on Tuesday, ADP employment report, as well as ISM services PMI on Wednesday.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9861

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for August 1-7
8/1/2016

EUR/USD finished last week around July highs in the 1.1170 area. The wait-and-see position taken by the European Central Bank and the decline in expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike supported the pair.

Although the euro area’s economic growth slowed down from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.3% in Q2, the region moved away from deflation. Eurozone inflation rose to 0.2% in July from 0.1% in June as a result of higher food, alcohol and tobacco prices. Higher inflation reduces the chances that the ECB will ease policy. In addition, the results of the European bank’s stress tests were better than feared.

European economic calendar this week will be rather light. Final PMIs will be released on Wednesday and German factory orders will come out on Friday. US nonfarm payrolls should make trading on Friday volatile.

EUR/USD is currently trading at the top of the recent month’s range. On the daily chart the pair met resistance in form of the daily Ichimoku Cloud around 1.1180. Further resistance is at 1.1260 (top of the daily Cloud, 50% Fibonacci of May-June decline) – this level will be hard to break for the bulls. There’s also 2016 resistance line in the 1.1290 area. Support lies at 1.1105, 1.1075 and 1.1015.

More;
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9862

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for August 1-7
8/1/2016

Last week British pound managed to hold its ground versus the US dollar. The Bank of England’s policymaker Martin Weale, who used to think that the BOE should raise rates sooner than later, said he sees the economic outlook differently after PMIs showed that UK economy contracted in July at its fastest rate since the beginning of 2009. However, GDP growth for Q2 was rather good despite the Brexit referendum in June: British economy rose by 0.6% beating the 0.4% growth forecast.

The Bank of England will meet on Thursday. The regulator is expected to cut interest rates from 0.50% to 0.25%, though most experts think that the central bank won’t revive its massive bond-buying program for now. The market is ready for such outcome: according to overnight swaps rate, a rate 30 basis points is already priced in. It means that the Bank of England will have to deliver much more easing for the British pound to fall, especially as the US dollar is not feeling particularly well. Apart from the Bank of England’s meeting pay attention to British PMIs on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

So far, GBP/USD managed to remain above the key 1.3050/00 support, and has potential for some recovery. Resistance is at 1.3300, 1.3500 and 1.3640 (38.2% Fibonacci) of the post-Brexit decline. Support is at 1.3085, 1.3000 and 1.2950.

GBP/USD: outlook for August 1-7

Last week British pound managed to hold its ground versus the US dollar. The Bank of England’s policymaker Martin Weale, who used to think that the BOE should raise rates sooner than later, said he sees the economic outlook differently after PMIs showed that UK economy contracted in July at its fastest rate since the beginning of 2009. However, GDP growth for Q2 was rather good despite the Brexit referendum in June: British economy rose by 0.6% beating the 0.4% growth forecast.

The Bank of England will meet on Thursday. The regulator is expected to cut interest rates from 0.50% to 0.25%, though most experts think that the central bank won’t revive its massive bond-buying program for now. The market is ready for such outcome: according to overnight swaps rate, a rate 30 basis points is already priced in. It means that the Bank of England will have to deliver much more easing for the British pound to fall, especially as the US dollar is not feeling particularly well. Apart from the Bank of England’s meeting pay attention to British PMIs on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

So far, GBP/USD managed to remain above the key 1.3050/00 support, and has potential for some recovery. Resistance is at 1.3300, 1.3500 and 1.3640 (38.2% Fibonacci) of the post-Brexit decline. Support is at 1.3085, 1.3000 and 1.2950.

[IMG]GBP/USD: outlook for August 1-7

Last week British pound managed to hold its ground versus the US dollar. The Bank of England’s policymaker Martin Weale, who used to think that the BOE should raise rates sooner than later, said he sees the economic outlook differently after PMIs showed that UK economy contracted in July at its fastest rate since the beginning of 2009. However, GDP growth for Q2 was rather good despite the Brexit referendum in June: British economy rose by 0.6% beating the 0.4% growth forecast.

The Bank of England will meet on Thursday. The regulator is expected to cut interest rates from 0.50% to 0.25%, though most experts think that the central bank won’t revive its massive bond-buying program for now. The market is ready for such outcome: according to overnight swaps rate, a rate 30 basis points is already priced in. It means that the Bank of England will have to deliver much more easing for the British pound to fall, especially as the US dollar is not feeling particularly well. Apart from the Bank of England’s meeting pay attention to British PMIs on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

So far, GBP/USD managed to remain above the key 1.3050/00 support, and has potential for some recovery. Resistance is at 1.3300, 1.3500 and 1.3640 (38.2% Fibonacci) of the post-Brexit decline. Support is at 1.3085, 1.3000 and 1.2950.

[IMG]GBP/USD: outlook for August 1-7

Last week British pound managed to hold its ground versus the US dollar. The Bank of England’s policymaker Martin Weale, who used to think that the BOE should raise rates sooner than later, said he sees the economic outlook differently after PMIs showed that UK economy contracted in July at its fastest rate since the beginning of 2009. However, GDP growth for Q2 was rather good despite the Brexit referendum in June: British economy rose by 0.6% beating the 0.4% growth forecast.

The Bank of England will meet on Thursday. The regulator is expected to cut interest rates from 0.50% to 0.25%, though most experts think that the central bank won’t revive its massive bond-buying program for now. The market is ready for such outcome: according to overnight swaps rate, a rate 30 basis points is already priced in. It means that the Bank of England will have to deliver much more easing for the British pound to fall, especially as the US dollar is not feeling particularly well. Apart from the Bank of England’s meeting pay attention to British PMIs on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

So far, GBP/USD managed to remain above the key 1.3050/00 support, and has potential for some recovery. Resistance is at 1.3300, 1.3500 and 1.3640 (38.2% Fibonacci) of the post-Brexit decline. Support is at 1.3085, 1.3000 and 1.2950.

GBP/USD: outlook for August 1-7

Last week British pound managed to hold its ground versus the US dollar. The Bank of England’s policymaker Martin Weale, who used to think that the BOE should raise rates sooner than later, said he sees the economic outlook differently after PMIs showed that UK economy contracted in July at its fastest rate since the beginning of 2009. However, GDP growth for Q2 was rather good despite the Brexit referendum in June: British economy rose by 0.6% beating the 0.4% growth forecast.

The Bank of England will meet on Thursday. The regulator is expected to cut interest rates from 0.50% to 0.25%, though most experts think that the central bank won’t revive its massive bond-buying program for now. The market is ready for such outcome: according to overnight swaps rate, a rate 30 basis points is already priced in. It means that the Bank of England will have to deliver much more easing for the British pound to fall, especially as the US dollar is not feeling particularly well. Apart from the Bank of England’s meeting pay attention to British PMIs on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

So far, GBP/USD managed to remain above the key 1.3050/00 support, and has potential for some recovery. Resistance is at 1.3300, 1.3500 and 1.3640 (38.2% Fibonacci) of the post-Brexit decline. Support is at 1.3085, 1.3000 and 1.2950.

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9863/GBPUSDDaily(7).png

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pURL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9863]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9863[/URL]

 

[riki143]

USDJPY: outlook for August 1-7
8/1/2016

The Bank of Japan eased monetary policy On Friday. Still, the market got disappointed, because the regulator didn’t increase purchases of Japanese government bonds or take negative interest rates even lower. What the central bank did was double purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF) from 3 to 6 trillion yen, but many thought that the BOJ is running out the policy tools. Governor Kuroda did leave room for possible action in future as he announced that the regulator will do a comprehensive assessment of monetary stimulus effects at the next meeting. However, during the press conference Kuroda didn’t confirm that such an assessment would lead to major shifts in policy.

With such position taken by the Bank of Japan, Japanese yen is going to remain strong. USD/JPY reversed down from the 200-week MA and the downtrend resistance line in the 106.70/107.50 area. The pair is vulnerable for decline to 100.70/100.40 support. Further support is at 98.80. Resistance is at 103.60, 104.05 and 105.20.

Japanese economic calendar contains only data releases of low importance, such as final manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence and average cash earnings. Pay attention to China’s PMI on Wednesday as it may have an impact on the market’s risk sentiment and, consequently, demand for the yen. The US nonfarm payrolls will make trading volatile on Friday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9864

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: outlook for August 1-7
8/1/2016

AUD/USD managed to recover the previous week’s losses. Aussie was driven higher mainly by the general weakness of the US dollar. The most important upcoming event for Australian dollar is the meeting of the Reserve bank of Australia on Tuesday. Australian consumer prices rose by 0.4% in Q2 after declining by 0.2% in the first 3 months of the year. Higher inflation makes rate cut less likely. Still, the figures didn’t completely alter the expectations of RBA’s rate cut. The futures market still sees a 68% chance that the RBA cuts rate from 1.75% to 1.50%. As Australian central bank is not interested in high value of its national currency, it may after all cut the cash rate.

Resistance is at 0.7600 (psychological level) and 0.7670 (100-week MA). Support is at 0.7550, 0.7500 and 0.7430.

Lower commodity prices act as limitation for AUD bulls: oil remains under pressure and copper reversed down. Official China’s manufacturing PMI showed the nation’s factory activity fell in July. Pay attention to China’s services PMI on Wednesday. Australia will also release building approvals and trade balance on Tuesday, retail sales on Thursday and the RB monetary policy statement on Friday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9865

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD & UK Construction PMI: Downside road before BoE's meeting?
8/2/2016

This week will be crucial for the Sterling, as the BoE will decide about interest rates and where the markets are expecting a possible rate cut on Thursday. However, before that key event, today at 08:30 GMT will be released the UK Construction PMI and analysts are expecting a decline to 44.2 from 46.0 in this month's reading. With that scenario, GBP could be hurt and we can see Cable re-testing July's lows.

Our technical view for GBP/USD at H4 chart is still sideways ahead of that macro data mentioned above. A triangle pattern can be seen below the 200 SMA, but still, we can see that the pair is trapped inside the post-Brexit range. If the Construction PMI is weaker than expected, a breakout below the support level can happen, towards the 1.2885 level on a first degree. The other scenario can be calling to a consolidation above last week's highs, in order to rally towards the 1.3428 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9866

 

[riki143]

Key option levels: August 2
8/2/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 169 776 ↑ + 125 927 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.1196; 1.1215; 1.1236; 1.1268
Closest support levels 1.1155; 1.1126; 1.1089; 1.1045
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Buy pair above 1.1196, with the target points at 1.1215 and 1.1236
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1155 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1126 and 1.1089

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 253 ↑ + 2 100 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.3225; 1.3247; 1.3263; 1.3282
Closest support levels 1.3167(54?); 1.3138; 1.3118; 1.3095
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3167, with target points at 1.3138 and 1.3118
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3225 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3247 and 1.3263

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9867

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Horizontal Triangle" points to coming wave v of (c)
8/2/2016

Wave 4 is likely going to end soon as a possible “Double Three” could finish its rally near 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). So, if a pullback from this levels happens, there’ll be an open door for wave . The nearest bearish target is 2/8 Murrey Math Level.

We’ve got a “Horizontal Triangle” in wave iv, which points to a possible upward movement in wave v of (c). Therefore, the price is likely going to achieve 8/8 Murrey Math Level, which could act as a resistance. At the same time, bears will probably try to set up wave afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9868

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD is feeling giddy
8/2/2016

On the daily AUD/USD the attempt of the bulls to restore the uptrend has failed. The pair formed a combination of "3 Indians" model and 1-2-3. This formation points at the high possibility of a reversal. The break of support at 0.7470 (38.2% Fibonacci of the last bullish wave and the lower border of the uptrend channel) may be a signal for opening short positions.

On H1 successful test of the upper border of the uptrend channel and the further decline of the quotes below the local low at 0.7480 will activate the "Shark" pattern. Its 88,6% target is near 0.7435.

Recommendation: SELL 0.747 SL 0.757 TP1 0.734 TP2 0.725.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9869

 

[riki143]

Gold: will the bulls find strength to attack?
8/2/2016

On the daily XAU/USD chart there's sustainable uptrend. The trend counl continue in case of successful test of resistance at $1370 an ounce. Here's the target of the 161.8% AB=CD pattern. The area of $1305-1314 acts as support. The break of it will activate the "3 Indians" and 1-2-3 and will lead to correction to $1260-1280 an ounce.

On H1 the bulls have already twice managed to break above the consolidation patterns within the "Spike and ledge" pattern. Remember about the risks of a model (Fakeout-Shakout). Unsuccessful break of resistance and the following return to the lower border will be a signal for short positions.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9870

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro is still overbought
8/2/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1160, 1.1130; resistance – 1.1170, 1.1220.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1220; SL — 1.1240; TP1 — 1.1080; TP2 – 1.1050.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; golden cross of Tenkan and Kijun, but there is still an overbought market.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9871

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound holds above the cloud
8/2/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.3180; resistance – 1.3270, 1.3290.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.3180/90; SL — 1.3160; TP1 — 1.3270; TP2 — 1.3290.

Reason: a bullish Cloud with growing range; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9872

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: correction to Tenkan[/]
8/2/2016

Technical levels: support – 102.10, 101.40, 100.80; resistance – 102.50, 102.90.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 102.80; SL — 103.00; TP1 — 102.00; TP2 — 101.40.

Reason: dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A and B.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9873

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Pennant" increasing bullish pressure
8/2/2016

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hour chart. Also, we’ve got a “Flag” pattern, so the price is likely going to reach a resistance near the current downtrend. At the same time, if a pullback from the trend happens afterwards, then there’ll be an opportunity to see a bearish movement in the direction of a support at 1.1186 – 1.1166.

We’ve got a consolidation in a range of the current “Pennant” pattern. So, bulls are likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.1222 – 1.1235. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.1166.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9876