Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/NZD falling inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
2 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/NZD falling inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
-Next selltarget - 1.0800

AUD/NZD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions – breaking through the two consecutive support levels 1.1030 and 1.0960, which were set previously as the sell targets for this currency pair. The breakout of these support levels greatly accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate downward impulse (3) from March. Waves 3 and (3) both started earlier - when the price reversed down from the strong resistance zone lying between resistance levels 1.1250 and 1.1340.

AUD/NZD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.0800 (target price calculated for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8821

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/USD rising inside impulse waves (v) and (C)
2 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-NZD/USD rising inside impulse waves (v) and (C)
-Next buy target - 0.7050

NZD/USD has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave (v), which belongs to the strong intermediate impulse wave (C) from January. The active impulse wave (v) started earlier – when the price reversed up from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 0.6860 (former strong resistance level from December and March) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from March.

NZD/USD is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7050 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (iii) in April).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8822

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Window" restrained bearish correction
2 May 2016
Galian Svetlova

As much as four “Three Methods” patterns were formed last week, which led to the current bullish price movement. Considering that a “Harami” at the local high hasn’t been confirmed, the market is probably going to reach the nearest resistance. We should keep in mind that it’s likely posible to see any kind of reversal pattern on this level. As we can see on the Daily chart, all last candles are bullish, but if buyers be stopped on the nearest resistance line, there’ll be time for bearish revenge.

We’ve got a new “Window”, which already acted as a support, so Friday’s high was broken. It’s interesting that this “Window” wasn’t closed, because the last candles couldn’t close under its lower side. Despite of this very bullish situation, the chance to see any bearish pattern on the nearest resistance is still an extremely high.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8823

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: "Three Methods" have ruined bulls at all
2 May 2016
Galina Svetlova

There're two “Three Methods” patterns, so the price found a lodgement under the last “Window”. Despite of the last “Three Methods” is unideal, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line. As well as we haven’t got any reversal patterns on the Daily chart, today’s candle is probably going to be a bearish one.

The price has been falling down since a “Shooting Star” arrived at the last high. We’ve got serious of “Three Methods” patterns, but currently the market is moving in a range of a flat. Anyway, bears are likely going to reach the nearest support, so we should be prepared for a possible bullish correction afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8824

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Key option levels: May 2-8
2 May 2016
Grigory Zverev

EUR/USD

o the closest resistance levels: 1.1472; 1.1560; 1.1637; 1.1706

o the closest support levels: 1.1305; 1.1240; 1.1164/25; 1.1053

o the range of upside risks: 1.1472-1.1871

o the range of downside risks: 1.1305-1.0880

Considering EUR/USD, the bulls has managed to turn the tide in their favor. However for growth continuation they need to overcome the number of strong resistances. Medium-term risks belong to bears so far. 1.1472 level excess will predetermine the new wave of growth to the 1.1560 and 1.1637 levels. The currency pair selling should be considered lower than 1.1305 level, with the target points at 1.1240 and 1.1164.

GBP/USD

o the closest resistance levels: 1.4699; 1.4792; 1.4830; 1.4928; 1.5045

o the closest support levels: 1.4452; 1.4321; 1.4237; 1.4174

o the range of upside risks: 1.4699-1.5130

o the range of downside risks: 1.4452-1.3969

GBP/USD has turned out to be under control of buyers again. 1.4699 level breakout will create a background for the currency pair growth this week. 1.4792 and 1.4830 levels can be used as the buy signals. There is also an alternative scenario – 1.4452 level downside breakout will open a way to 1.4321 and 1.4237.

USD/JPY

o the closest resistance levels: 106.63; 107.02; 107.94; 108.68

o the closest support levels: 105.94; 105.25; 104.24;

o the range of upside risks: 108.68-113.97

o the range of downside risks: 107.94-95.24

USD/JPY has got under the bear pressure. The main objective of the marketmakers is still located on 105.00 level. However 100.00 and 95.00 strikes development suggests the possibility of a deeper decrease. The decrease lower than 105.94 level can be considered as a signal for the currecny pair sale, with the target points at 105.25 and 104.24. Interests of buyers are located higher than 108.68 level.

USD/CAD

o the closest resistance levels: 1.2637; 1.2757/83; 1.2830; 1.2989/99

o the closest support levels: 1.2503 (?); 1.2444; 1.2355; 1.2261

o the range of upside risks: 1.2503-1.2261

o the range of downside risks: 1.2637-1.2999

USD/CAD has closed another week in a "red zone". However, Call-range strengthening can encourage the development of the ascending correction. 1.2637 level excess will become a good moment for buying; the objectives are 1.2757 and 1.2830 levels. In case of decrease lower than 1.2503 level it is possible to open short positions with the target points at 1.2444 and 1.2355.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8826

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bulls are inside the "Wedge"
3 May 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market has been rising since the upper side of the last “Wedge” was broken. The price faced a resistance at 1.1533, which led to the current local correction. Anyway, it’s likely possible to see an upward movement afterwards, so we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.1599.

There’s a “Wedge” in progress, which is a sign for an intraday correction. At the same time, the main trend remains a bullish one, so the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1599 subsequently.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8827

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: "Pennant" strongly supports buyers
3 May 2016
Sergey Logachev

The pair entered into a consolidation phase since the downtrend line was broken. The price found a resistance at 1.4692, but it’s likely that the market is going to reach the next resistance at 1.4797 in the short term.

There’s a flat in progress, which brought a possible “Pennant” pattern. So, the price is likely going to the next resistance at 1.4692 – 1.4738. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be a chance for a downward correction to happen.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8828

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD broke resistance zone
3 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/USD broke resistance zone
-Next buytarget - 1.4800

GBP/USD continues to rise following the earlier breakout of the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4650 (which stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (4) at the start of February, as you can see below) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse wave from last November. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (C) from the start of April.

GBP/USD is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4800 (target price calculated for the termination of the active impulse wave 3).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8831

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/AUD broke pivotal resistance level 1.5200
3 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/AUD broke pivotal resistance level 1.5200
-Next buy target - 1.5430

EUR/AUD today broke through the resistance area lying between the pivotal resistance level 1.5200 (top of the previous minor B-wave from the start of April) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous intermediate ABC correction (2) from February. The breakout of this resistance area continues the active intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the major long-term support level 1.4500, which has been reversing the price from December, as can be seen below.

EUR/AUD is likely to rise further in the active impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5430. Strong support now stands at the recently broken price level 1.5200.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8832

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Doji" points to a bearish correction
3 May 2016
Galina Svetlova

The last bearish “Harami” hasn’t been confirmed, so we’ve got a “Three Methods” at the local high. There’s a huge possibility to see any kind on bearish pattern on the already achieved resistance line. However, the coming downward movement will be just a correction, so bulls still have enough power to deliver new highs afterwards. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last candles are bullish, so the today’s one likely won’t be an exception too.

There's a bullish rally in progress, but we've got a “Doji” at the last high, which points to a possible local correction. The main target is the middle of the last upward movement as well as the upper side of the previously formed “Three Methods” pattern.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8833

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7050
4 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7050
-Next sell target - 0.6850

NZD/USD continues to fall inside the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier when the pair reversed down from pivotal resistance level 0.7050 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The resistance level 0.7050 also previously reversed the price sharply in the middle of April – starting the active primary impulse wave ③. Both of the last downward reversals from resistance level 0.7050 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal patterns Bearish Engulfing.

NZD/USD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.6850 (standing close to the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward price impulse from the middle of March).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8844

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for May 5


US dollar recovered on more hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve’s members. San Francisco Fed President John Williams claimed he could vote for an interest rate hike in June if the economy keeps improving. In addition, according to Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, two rate hikes this year were certainly possible. However, ADP employment report showed that the number of employed people in the United States rose by only 156K in April vs. 205K expected.

Risk assets also suffered as crude oil was under pressure. the American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday that US inventories increased last week by 1.3 million barrels.

EUR/USD is holding above support at 1.1460 after it formed spike up to 1.1614 on Tuesday, but failed to stay at these maximums. Euro area’s retail sales contracted by 0.5% in March, while an increase by 0.1% was expected. On Thursday German and French banks will be on holiday. Next support is at 1.1415 and 1.1350. The pair has to rise above 1.1550 in order for the bulls to feel powerful again. Note that there’s declining 100-week MA at 1.1638, and it should create significant resistance.

GBP/USD returned down to 1.4500. British manufacturing unexpectedly fell in April for the first time in 3 years. The nation’s construction PMI also came lower than expected (52.0 vs. 54.1). In addition, ICM poll, which was weighted to take into account the likelihood of respondents taking part in the vote, showed that 45% of voters were in favor of Brexit, while 44% were against it. The pound may suffer more if services PMI due at 08:30 GMT on Thursday disappoints. Below 1.4500 we’ll focus on the next big figure at 1.4400/1.4388 (100-day MA) and 1.4330. Resistance is at 1.4550 and 1.4630.

USD/JPY tried to recover after falling as low as to 105.55 on Tuesday. The lack of monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan last week is the biggest bearish factor the pair. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Tuesday that the government is monitoring speculative foreign-exchange trades and will act if it’s necessary. On Thursday liquidity will be lower because of a bank holiday in Japan, so we may see some volatile moves. The pair will likely remain under bearish pressure. Support is at 105.00 (200-day MA) ahead of 103.70 (may 2013 high). Resistance is at 107.50 and 108.25 ahead of 110.50.

AUD/USD was little changed in the 0.7480 area where it fell from levels above 0.7700 on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rate from 2.00% to 1.75%. There wasn’t much of the forward guidance in the central bank’s accompanying statement – we may get more insight about that from the RBA’s quarterly monetary policy statement, which is due on Friday. The RBA’s decision to act is probably connected with the slowdown in Australian inflation. Resistance lies at 0.7560 and 0.7600. Decline below 0.7450 will open the way down to 0.7410. Australia is due to release retail sales and trade balance figures at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, an improvement in data is expected.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8851

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bulls are pressed down by the "V-Top"
5 May 2016, 06:28

There's a “V-Top” at the last high, which brought bears into the market. Therefore, the price faced a support at 1.1464, so currently we’ve got a flat in progress. The market is likely going to reach a support at 1.1431 – 1.1398 subsequently. If we see a pullback from this area, an upward movement becomes possible.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the pair has been entered into a consolidation phase since a support at 1.1464 was achieved. So, the price is probably going to reach a resistance at 1.1529 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on a support at 1.1437 – 1.1413 as the next feasible bearish target.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8854

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: bears are in the game again
5 May 2016

The last bullish rally has been stopped by a “Rising Wedge” pattern, so bears returned into the market. The price faced a support at 1.4458 afterwards, but it’s likely that the pair is going to reach the next support at 1.4423 in the short term. If so, there’ll be a chance to see an upward correction.

The price has found a support at 1.4472, so we’ve got a local rise in progress. Therefore, if bulls successfully gets a resistance at 1.4573 and we see a pullback from this level subsequently, a decline towards a support at 1.4402 is going to be on the table.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8855

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Can I make a living with Forex trading?
5 May 2016

In life we face daily challenges that allow us to grow as people, but all this depends on the way how we face them, because if we do not have enough wisdom, these challenges would affect us in a negative way.

Fortunately, with the advancement of technology and mass diffusion of knowledge through the internet, we were able to meet with such an extremely profitable business, as Forex trading. However, like any business, it takes a lot of study to learn to master Forex trading, and even more if you want this to become your full-time business and make a living of it.

When we were kids, we went to school with the purpose of learning to read, write, do maths and many other basic functions that allow us to acquire more knowledge for the future, so we can deal with the life’s challenges successfully.

The example above is similar to learning Forex trading as a business, because we have to go through a series of processes that allow us to understand the complex, but profitable world of Foreign Exchange.

A common mistake that many beginners in Forex trading make is that they want to make money quickly, which makes them lose all their money quickly, because they do not have enough patience to learn, and what’s especially the beginners, don’t learn to master stress while trading in the Forex market.

Therefore, we will need to devote a lot of time to learning this business, but above all, we would have to know how to manage our investor’s psychology and believe that the Forex market is not a matter of luck, such as gambling. If you think that Forex trading is like gambling, then it is highly likely you’ll fail in this business and eventually lose all the money you've invested in a trading account.

There is no excuse to say that there is not enough information about how to master the techniques that allow us to generate profits with Forex trading, because thanks to the progressive democratization of information through the Internet we can find valuable sources of information about the Forex market.

At FX BAZOOKA, for example, you can find daily market analysis and news, which represent the necessary tools for growing in this profitable business.

Another important aspect to consider when trying to make money in Forex trading is managing a proper risk in each trade. If you believe that in this business you can quickly earn thousands of dollar with small investment, you're quite wrong and those expectations are what lead many people to failure in this business, because traders of that kind tend to overleverage their accounts.

Therefore, it is essential that you create a good risk management plan for your money, in order not to risk much on each trade. This will allow to you to protect your trading account from any unexpected event in the Forex market.

After all, you’re probably still asking yourself: can I make a living with Forex trading? The answer is: of course you can! But it is not as easy as many can make you believe.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8858

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

A Strategy to Trade on Nonfarm Payrolls
5 May 2016

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is an economic indicator released once a month, usually on the first Friday of the month. NFP shows the change in number of employed people in the United States during the previous month. The release usually causes strong movements in all currency pairs containing US dollar.

Right ahead of the NFP the market usually either becomes flat or starts swinging in different directions. Ahead of the release set two pending orders in opposite directions (buy and sell). The orders should be set at least 20 pips away from the current price, so that you could avoid false market entry. If the price goes up and opens the buy order, you will be in long position. If the price goes down and opens sell order, you will be in short position.

Set stop loss orders around the current price, that is at least 20 pips away from the entry points. Take profit orders should be 60 pips away from the entry points. In this case the risk/reward ratio will be 1:3.

In the example below there are the following positions ahead of NFP:

1. BUY STOP 1.2625, Take Profit 1.2685, Stop Loss 1.2605

2. SELL STOP 1.2585, Take Profit 1.2525, Stop Loss 1.2605

If one order is activated, you should close another one.

If the price is confidently moving in one of directions, you may move you stop loss order to breakeven. However, do this at least after 15 minutes from the release. Remember that the volatility of the currency pair depends on many factors and changes in time, so to choose the amount of pips to set your entry and exit orders correctly you should study the pair’s dynamics in the recent days and weeks.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8859

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bears have broken the "Window"
5 May 2016

There's a downward correction in progress. Previously, a “Harami”, a “Three Black Crows” and a “Three Methods” were formed at the last top. So, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line. As we can see on the Daily chart, a “Harami” and a “Shooting Star” have been confirmed. Therefore, today’s candle is probably going to be black.

The price has broken the nearest “Window”. If the market finds a lodgement under it, there’ll be nothing to stop bears on the way towards the next support line, which can bring a reversal bullish pattern.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8860

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: flat between "Hammer" and "Harami"
5 May 2016

There're an “Engulfing” and a “Three White Soldiers” at the last low. We’ve got a “Three Methods”, which points to a possibility that the current rise can be continued. At the same time, there's a “Window”, which obviously can act as a resistance. So, it’s likely that the pair is going to form a local downward correction during the day. However, bulls will likely try to reach the next “Window” afterwards. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “Hammer” and an “Inverted Hammer”, which both have been confirmed. So, today’s candle is likely going to be bullish.

The last local downward correction was finally ended by the “Hammer” candle. So, the market is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average. If bulls breaks this line, the next target will be on the nearest “Window".

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8861

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/CHF reversed from pivotal support level 0.9500
5 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CHF reversed from pivotal support level 0.9500
-Next buytarget - 0.9700

USD/CHF continues to rise – following the earlier upward reversal from the pivotal support level 0.9500 (which reversed the previous waves (iv) and 1, as can be seen from the daily USD/CHF chart below). The support zone near the support level 0.9500 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support level 0.9500 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.

With the clear bullish divergence visible on the daily RSI indicator - USD/CHF can be expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9640, the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 0.9700.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8862

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD reversed from strong resistance level 1.1600
5 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/USD reversed from strong resistance level 1.1600
-Next sell target - 1.1400

EUR/USD continues to fall – after the earlier sharp downward reversal from the strong resistance level 1.1600 (which also previously reversed the price sharply in last October, as can be seen below). The resistance zone near the resistance level 1.1600 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from December. The downward reversal from 1.1600 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star.

Given the strength of the resistance level 1.1600 - EUR/USD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.1400.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8863