Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Market News
19 May 2014

CFTC: USD positions turned long

Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on May 16 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended on May 13.

According to the report, large speculators turned bullish on the US dollar, with net longs climbing to the highest in more than two months. The value of the dollar's net long position was $4.51 billion, up from short contracts totalling $2.03 billion the previous week. This week's long position came after 4 straight weeks of shorts. It's also important to note that speculators turned net short the euro.

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1266

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trade signals for May 19

Provided by Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Short at 1.3712 with a target of 1.3552 and a stop at 1.3777

USD/JPY: Short at 101.90 with a target of 100.76 and a stop at 102.45

GBP/USD: Short at 1.6830 with a target of 1.6657 and a stop at 1.6910

USD/CHF: Long at 0.8925 with a target of 0.9038 and a stop at 0.8875

AUD/USD: Long at 0.9322 with a target of 0.9461 and a stop at 0.9322

USD/CAD: Buy at 1.0858 with a target of 1.0961 and a stop at 1.0808

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/1504

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 19th: American session

Tatiana Norkina , an analyst at FBS

The U.S. dollar looks weaker against most world currencies. Today the dollar index loses about 0.21 %, falling to 79.95. The main factor of reduction was the uncertainty of market participants about the strength of the Chinese economy recovery. Major U.S. stock markets opened with some decrease , but at the moment the S & P500 is in the green zone, +0.10, and the DJIA pulled down to zero.


The currency pair EUR/USD tries to recover after the morning consolidation, punching the resistance at 1.3725. USD/CHF is still kept above 0.8900 figure, but bears increase pressure. The British currency continued Friday's strengthening: GBP/USD has recovered to around 1.6845, but then went back to 1.6825 support. Major changes have occurred on the USD/JPY: the pair has broken down long-term support 101.40 and declined to 101.10.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1267

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 20: Asian session

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses. Nikkei 225 is up by 0.7%. USD/JPY is trading in the 101.50 area after testing 101.10 yesterday. The Bank of Japan begins a 2-day meeting today.

AUD/USD was the biggest mover of the day, extending the decline and testing the levels below the $0.9300 mark. News that S&P may downgrade the Australia's AAA credit rating was a factor weighing on the currency. RBA meeting minutes didn’t bring any surprises to the market, but the RBA’s Assistant Governor Debelle tried to pull the currency lower by saying that “lower capital inflows may result in a lower AUD”. NZD/USD dropped, but found support around $0.8610. Gold price sits unchanged at $1293.

EUR/USD keeps trading in the $1.3700 area. Yesterday the pair tested $1.3734. The ECB officials Daniele Nouy and Luis Maria Linde are scheduled to speak today at the Frankfurt Finance Summit, while Erkki Liikanen speaks in Helsinki. GBP/USD is trading just above $1.6800. Poundawaitsinflationdataat 08:30 GMT.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1269

 

[riki143]

Market News

Key option levels (May 20)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).
Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3700/10 (large), $1.3725, $1.3745/55 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6900 (large);

USD/JPY: 100.60 (large) 100.75 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9330, $0.9360;

USD/CAD: $1.0825 (large), $1.0900, $1.0925 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.8600;

EUR/GBP: 0.8200 (large).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1270

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 20: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

The U.S. dollar has strengthened somewhat today, returning to the area above the 80th figure, but the bearish pressure is still strong. Currently, the index is adding about 0.05%. The U.S. stock markets have opened with a pretty big downfall today. Thus, DJIA has lost 0.33%, S&P500 - slightly more than 0.35%.

Strengthening of the US dollar has had an impact on the currency markets as well. Thus, the major Forex market currency pair - EUR/USD - was sliding to the 1.3675 area today. After a small correction to the 1.3700 figure, the bears keep on advancing. The USD/CHF pair has broken through the 0.8925 resistance and buyings are likely to increase. The British currency was supported by today's inflation data: the GBP/USD pair was recovering to the 1.6865 mark but is still trading in the 1.6840 area. The USD/JPY currency pair remains under pressure - it is consolidating under the recent support of 101.40.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1271

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 21: Asian session

Asian shares fell for a fourth day. MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1%. Nikkei 225 is down by 0.2%.

USD/JPY is once again testing the 200-day MA at 101.18. Yen strengthened after the Bank of Japan refrained from expanding stimulus and said it expects a moderate economic recovery to continue. In addition, US yield premium over Japan shrank before the release of the Fed’s meeting minutes.

AUD/USD dipped to $0.9220 before recovering by 18 pips. Australian dollar held its sharpest loss in 2 months after consumer confidence dropped and iron ore prices fell to the lowest since September 2012.

NZD/USD slid almost to $0.8550, the lowest this month. New Zealand’s dollar declined after Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd. said whole-milk powder prices declined for a seventh auction.

EUR/USD remains in the $1.3700 area. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.8635 area.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1272

 

[riki143]

Market News

Key option levels (May 21)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3650 $1.3700/10 (large), $1.3800 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6775, $1.6880;

USD/JPY: 101.00 (large), 101.25 (large), 101.50 (large), 101.70/75 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9200 (large), $0.9300 (large), $0.9345 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0850, 1.0895/0900 (large), 1.0920;

EUR/GBP: 0.8200/05 (large).

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1273

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 21: European session

GBP/USD rose to a 2-week high of $1.6920 on strong UK retail sales (+1.3% vs. forecast of +0.4%). The Bank of England’s meeting minutes showed that the MPC members voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged. EUR/GBP slid to the 0.8100 area.

EUR/USD remains glued to $1.3700 after testing $1.3723 (bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud) earlier today. The euro area’s current account surplus was lower than expected (18.8B vs. forecast of 24.2B). Germany has conducted a successful debt auction.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1275

 

[riki143]

Market News
21 May 2014

Demand for gold at 4-year low

According to the World Gold Council’s latest Gold Demand Trends report, global demand for bars and coins declined by 39% to 283 tonnes in Q1 2014, the lowest level in 4 years.

China’s gold demand fell 18% in the first 3 months of the year as investors bought fewer bars and coins, offsetting record demand for jewellery. Other major purchasers such as India also recorded a drop in demand.

Lower demand from China, which surpassed India as the world’s largest gold consumer last year, was blamed on price-sensitivity as gold appreciated nearly 8% in 2014. Factors that caused a decrease in India were duty and restrictions on gold imports which was coupled with restrictions on free movement of cash and other assets.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1277

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 21: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The index of the U.S. dollar began to strengthen sharply, mainly due to the weakening of the euro. During the day, the dollar index soared to around 80.25 and now adds about 0.20% compared to the opening levels. Trading on the major U.S. stock exchanges opened with a strong growth. So, DJIA adds about 1.00%, while the S&P500 - 0.75%. Today, the market is expected to publish April FOMC protocols, as well as the performance of a number of FRS heads.

The U.S. dollar strengthened today and against most world currencies. So, EUR/USD pair tried to break up the yesterday’s range, but eventually bulls gave up and the rate fell to around 1.3650 mark, from which at the moment is adjusted upward. The pair USD/CHF has crept close to the highs of last week, recovering to around 0.8953 mark. British currency again was supported by statistical data, now - retail sales, the growth of which is observed in both monthly and in year. GBP/USD pair soared to around 1.6920 mark, but then corrected to 1.6880 area. The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar this afternoon: the currency pair USD/JPY dropped to around 100.80 mark – the level of support four months ago. Testing at this level led to a sharp increase in purchases and growth of the currency pair to 101.55 area.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1278

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 22: Asian session

Asian shares rose for the first time in 5 days after the Fed meeting minutes showed policy makers see a muted risk of inflation from continued US stimulus and a Chinese manufacturing gauge came better than expected. MSCI Asia Pacific index gained 1.2%. Nikkei 225 added more than 2%. USD/JPY rose to 101.75 after spiking down to 100.81 yesterday.

Commodity currencies are in demand on Thursday as the risk appetite increased on the upbeat Chinese manufacturing figures. HSBC manufacturing PMI came in at 5-month high in May (49.7 versus expected 48.4). AUD/USD recovered from the yesterday’s low of $0.9210 to $0.9260. The pair formed a candle with a long lower shadow yesterday – the recent bearish move in the Aussie seems to be over. NZD/USD recovered into the $0.8580 area. Gold price remains flat slightly below the $1300 mark.

EUR/USD lowered to $1.3670, but is trading above yesterday’s low at $1.3634. GBP/USD is trading just below $1.6900.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1280

 

[riki143]

Market News

Key option levels (May 22)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3625, $1.3650 (large), $1.3700, $1.3715;

GBP/USD: $1.6850, $1.7000;

USD/JPY: 101.00 (large), 101.25, 101.40 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9200 (large), $0.9225 (large), $0.9260;

USD/CAD: 1.0900 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.8050, 0.8100.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1281

 

[riki143]

Market News
22 May 2014

FOMC meeting minutes: takeaway

Here are the main comments of the minutes:

- There are no inflation risks from the continued stimulus to push unemployment lower.

- Most FOMC members saw inflation at 2.0% within the next few years (in March inflation was 1.1% staying below the 2% target for almost 2 years).

- Fed officials discussed several approaches to policy when they raise short-term interest rates, but decided further study was needed.

Full text of the minutes here

All in all, the minutes offer little insight into the future policy of the Fed. According to BK Asset Management, “while the central bank is and intends to end QE in 2014 they provided no additional hints on when rates will rise.”

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1282

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 22: European session

EUR/USD continues trading below $1.3700 after the euro zone’s PMIs came mixed. While manufacturing PMIs in France, Germany and the euro area as a whole turned out to be lower than expected, services PMIs were firmer. German manufacturing PMI fell to 52.9 vs. the forecast of 54, while the euro zone’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.5 vs. the forecast of 53.2.

GBP/USD fell from the daily high of $1.6917 to $1.6870 as the UK public sector net borrowing came much worse than expected (9.6B vs. 3.6B forecasted). UK GDP increased by 0.8% in Q1, up from the 0.7% rise in the previous quarter. This result is in line with market consensus. UK preliminary business investment increased by 2.7% in Q1 (forecast: 2.3%). Great Britain will release industrial order expectations later in the session.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1283

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 22nd: American session

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS

The U.S. dollar strengthened once again against the major world currencies today. The main driver of growth was positive data on the Chinese economy. Currently, the dollar index (80.25) is in the green zone, adding about 0.20 %. Stock markets opened rather sluggishly. Analysts blame the relatively weak performance of the labor market and the secondary housing market. DJIA index grew by 0.10 %, while the S & P500 - 0.20% .
The currency pair EUR/USD fell to 1.3650 support at the beginning of the session. GBP/USD falls as well, trading at which conducted a mark 1.6850 . At the same time, the dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, USD/JPY returns to morning highs of 102.70. There is some weakness in the pair USD/CHF, which failed to pass above resistance 0.8950

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1285

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 23: Asian session

Asian shares rose, with the regional benchmark heading for a 4-month high, after data showed US manufacturing expanded and as the yen held yesterday’s losses. MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5% to 141.03 heading for the highest close since Jan. 1. Nikkei 225 rose by almost 1%. USD/JPY edged up to 101.85.

AUD/USD recovered into the $0.9250 area after hitting a session low of $0.9215. NZD/USD hovers in a tight $0.8555/75 range. Gold price consolidates around $1295 after having tested the levels above $1300 yesterday.

EUR/USD declined to $1.3640. Euro weakened ahead of data that may show German business cclimate index fell and amid concerns that euro-skeptic parties will gain ground in elections for the European Union Parliament. GBP/USD edged up to $1.6870.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1286

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 22nd: American session

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS

The U.S. dollar strengthened once again against the major world currencies today. The main driver of growth was positive data on the Chinese economy. Currently, the dollar index (80.25) is in the green zone, adding about 0.20 %. Stock markets opened rather sluggishly. Analysts blame the relatively weak performance of the labor market and the secondary housing market. DJIA index grew by 0.10 %, while the S & P500 - 0.20% .
The currency pair EUR/USD fell to 1.3650 support at the beginning of the session. GBP/USD falls as well, trading at which conducted a mark 1.6850 . At the same time, the dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, USD/JPY returns to morning highs of 102.70. There is some weakness in the pair USD/CHF, which failed to pass above resistance 0.8950

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1285

 

[riki143]

Market News

May 26: Asian session

Asian stocks rose for a third day, touching a 6-month high, after an increase in US home purchases boosted confidence in the world’s largest economy and billionaire Petro Poroshenko had a decisive win in Ukraine’s presidential election. MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3%. USD/JPY is trading just below 102.00.

AUD/USD sits in a tight range around $0.9240 – slightly above the last week’s lows at $0.9210. NZD/USD trades under pressure at $0.8530 (minimum levels since the end of April). New Zealand April trade balance disappointed, coming below the forecast at +534M (vs. expected +634M). Gold price consolidates in the narrow $1290/94 range.

EUR/USD has come close to $1.3600 before the ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at a forum in Portugal amid speculation the ECB will expand stimulus in June. Exit polls of the European Parliamentary elections indicate that although hat left-center and right-center parties will still hold a majority of seats, Euroskeptic groups who oppose the European Union are definitely gaining ground. GBP/USD edged up to $1.6845. The US and UK financial markets are closed today for public holidays.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1288

 

[riki143]

Market News
26 May 2014

China Premier Li hints on easing

Chinese stock markets rose on Monday amid increased monetary easing expectations. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on May 23 the government will "fine-tune" policy when needed and solve problems such as tight funds for the real economy, especially for small companies.

“Investors’ risk appetite is rising while expectations about defaults are diminishing,” analysts at Guotai Junan Securities Co., Chinese third-biggest brokerage, say. “The central bank wants to maintain an appropriately loose environment to prevent explosion of regional or systematic risks. The central bank doesn’t want to see more companies collapse, so it has to allow borrowing costs to fall."

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1291