FBS
Broker Representative
Technical forecasts for majors (Dec. 18)
Elizabeth Belougina and Kira Iukhtenko, FX BAZOOKA analysts
EUR/USD
The medium term trend is to the upside. The pair’s consolidating between $1.3800 and $1.3700.
Resistance: $1.3810, $1.3830, $1.3850.
Chart. H4 EUR/USD
Upcoming events:
EUR - 9:00 GMT - German Ifo Business Climate
EUR - All Day - ECOFIN Meetings
USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits
USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate
GBP/USD
Market sentiment on the H4 is bullish. GBP/USD is trading in a bearish channel since Dec. 11. Cable tested the channel support yesterday (daily low at $0.6215), but met with buyers there.
Resistance: $1.6300, $1.6320
Chart. H4 GBP/USD
Upcoming events
GBP - 9:30 GMT - Claimant Count Change, MPC Policy Statement, Unemployment Rate
USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits (forecast: 0.99M; previous: 1.04M)
USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate
USD/JPY
Market sentiment is neutral ahead of the Fed: USD/JPY is consolidating in the 102.50/103.15 range.
Resistance: 103.00, 103.15, 103.40, 103.70, 103.95/104.00
Chart. Daily USD/JPY
Upcoming events:
USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits (forecast: 0.99M; previous: 1.04M)
USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate
USD/CHF
USD/CHF clearly remains under the bearish control, trading slightly above the 2-year low of 0.8832.
Resistance: 0.8890, 0.8900, 0.8920, 0.8940
Chart. Daily USD/CHF
Upcoming events:
CHF - 10:00 GMT - ZEW Economic Expectations
USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits (forecast: 0.99M; previous: 1.04M)
USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate
AUD/USD
The pair keeps consolidating below this week’s highs in the $0.8970 area.
Resistance: $0.8970, $0.9000, $0.9065.
Chart. H4 AUD/USD
Upcoming events:
USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits
USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate
USD - 19:30 GMT - FOMC Press Conference
AUD - 00:30 GMT - RBA Bulletin
USD/CAD
USD/CAD is trading at the lower side of the rising channel. The pair’s making fading fluctuations between 1.0700 and 1.0560.
Support: 1.0585/80 (channel support), 1.0560, 1.0580 and 1.0508.
Chart. H4 USD/CAD
Upcoming events:
USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits
CAD - 13:30 GMT - Wholesale Sales
USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate
USD - 19:30 GMT - FOMC Press Conference
Elizabeth Belougina and Kira Iukhtenko, FX BAZOOKA analysts
EUR/USD
The medium term trend is to the upside. The pair’s consolidating between $1.3800 and $1.3700.
- Market is in the waiting mode ahead of the important news: oscillators are generally neutral.
- 55- and 100-period MAs continue rising.
- The prices are above the bullish Ichimoku Cloud and its lines, though Tenkan and Kijun formed a dead cross (red and blue lines).
Resistance: $1.3810, $1.3830, $1.3850.
Chart. H4 EUR/USD
Upcoming events:
EUR - 9:00 GMT - German Ifo Business Climate
EUR - All Day - ECOFIN Meetings
USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits
USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate
GBP/USD
Market sentiment on the H4 is bullish. GBP/USD is trading in a bearish channel since Dec. 11. Cable tested the channel support yesterday (daily low at $0.6215), but met with buyers there.
- H4 MACD divergence (bullish signal)
- 55-period MA is still directed to the downside
- Cable remains below the thin bearish H4 Ichimoku ; dead cross remains valid. Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen are sidelined, leaving room for a bullish reversal.
Resistance: $1.6300, $1.6320
Chart. H4 GBP/USD
Upcoming events
GBP - 9:30 GMT - Claimant Count Change, MPC Policy Statement, Unemployment Rate
USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits (forecast: 0.99M; previous: 1.04M)
USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate
USD/JPY
Market sentiment is neutral ahead of the Fed: USD/JPY is consolidating in the 102.50/103.15 range.
- The pair holds above the bullish H4 Ichimoku, though Kijun-sen remains below the Tenkan-sen
- Supported by the 55-day MA (102.85) and the 100-period MA (102.50)
- Bulls need a break above 103.15 to take over control of the pair
Resistance: 103.00, 103.15, 103.40, 103.70, 103.95/104.00
Chart. Daily USD/JPY
Upcoming events:
USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits (forecast: 0.99M; previous: 1.04M)
USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate
USD/CHF
USD/CHF clearly remains under the bearish control, trading slightly above the 2-year low of 0.8832.
- The pair holds below the wide bearish Ichimoku Cloud, Tenkan and Kijun lines have formed a dead cross
- MACD histogramm is below the signal line and keeps declining (bearish signal)
- Sellers need to push the pair below the local low of 0.8830 to open the way to 0.8800
Resistance: 0.8890, 0.8900, 0.8920, 0.8940
Chart. Daily USD/CHF
Upcoming events:
CHF - 10:00 GMT - ZEW Economic Expectations
USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits (forecast: 0.99M; previous: 1.04M)
USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate
AUD/USD
The pair keeps consolidating below this week’s highs in the $0.8970 area.
- Bollinger bands have narrowed: volatility decreased as market players are waiting for the results of the Fed meeting. High and low volatility periods usually follow each other, so the narrowing of the bands often means that the volatility is about to increase sharply.
- There’s a small divergence in MACD/RSI that may allow bulls to make a correction a bit higher.
- All MAs are declining that indicates that a medium-term downtrend is well in place.
- The prices are below the widening bearish Ichimoku Cloud and the indicator lines.
Resistance: $0.8970, $0.9000, $0.9065.
Chart. H4 AUD/USD
Upcoming events:
USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits
USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate
USD - 19:30 GMT - FOMC Press Conference
AUD - 00:30 GMT - RBA Bulletin
USD/CAD
USD/CAD is trading at the lower side of the rising channel. The pair’s making fading fluctuations between 1.0700 and 1.0560.
- The pair approached resistance provided by the 100- and 50-period MAs. The latter line may cross the former to the downside – this will be a negative signal.
- The prices are below the bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but Tenkan-sen is providing them some support.
- MACD is approaching 0 from the downside. RSI (14) rose to 54.
Support: 1.0585/80 (channel support), 1.0560, 1.0580 and 1.0508.
Chart. H4 USD/CAD
Upcoming events:
USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits
CAD - 13:30 GMT - Wholesale Sales
USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate
USD - 19:30 GMT - FOMC Press Conference