Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for Nov 30 - Dec 6

By Kira Iukhtenko

The coming December will likely be an intense month for the financial markets. The US Fed will hold its policy meeting on December 16 – an initial rate hike is very likely. These expectations create a strong bullish risk for the US currency. The USD index is hovering slightly below the March highs of 100 points.

The US economic calendar on the new week is busy. Currency market will likely react on every positive headline. Watch the Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a range of the Fed’s officials will deliver their speeches. All the recent comments were bullish. On Thursday, the Fed’s chief Yellen will deliver a speech. On Friday, markets will focus on the November labor market report. The October data was highly positive, so there is potential for more bullish surprises. To sum up, the US dollar is a BUY on the coming week.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7201

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis
29 November 2015

Daily. The pair keeps developing correction B, which is taking form of a double zigzag. At the moment the pair is forming the wave [y], so let’s review its layout in greater detail.

H4. The wave [Y], according to its form, is a double zigzag. As a result, correction (x) will be complete in the coming 5 days, as shown on the chart. Then the advance will resume.

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7215

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
29 November 2015

Weekly. The market keeps moving within the multiyear uptrend. At the moment the pair’s forming its final part – impulse (V). Let’s review its layout at Н4.

H4. Correction in the wave 4 looks finished. The pair’s currently forming the beginning of the wave 5. As a result, we expect the pair’s growth at the new week.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7214

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis
29 November 2015

Daily. After finishing correction [ii], we saw the price’s rapid decline, which will continue in the coming weeks. Let’s review the pair’s layout in greater detail.

H4. The pair finished building correction (ii), after which it started developing downside impulse (iii). At the new week we expect the pair to decline as shown at the chart.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7213

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 30
30 November 2015

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0766 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.00, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.19

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5170, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.5165

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0466 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0195

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7382, STOP LOSS 0.7149

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3557 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3270 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 131.11 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0830, TAKE PROFIT 1.1050 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0805

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4215 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 185.15, TAKE PROFIT 188.81, STOP LOSS 184.15

Trade ideas:

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7065, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7115

NZD/USD: Look to SELL

_________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7222

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Pound updated lows
30 November 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The British currency keeps losing against the American. The GBP/USD currency pair has updated November lows this morning, sliding to the 1.5014 mark at the trading opening. The downward trend is obvious to continue in the future since all Ichimoku indicator lines are set to fall. The dead cross formed by the Tenkan and Kijun lines at the beginning of the previous week is active. The Ichimoku cloud is expanding downwards. Short-term recoveries into the 1.5050 area are possible.

Technical levels: support – 1.5000, 1.5010; resistance – 1.5050, 1.5070.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell— 1.5050; SL — 1.5070; TP1 — 1.5000; TP2 — 1.4970.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7218

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis
29 November 2015

Daily. After the market finished correction (4), we saw the development of a new downtrend impulse (5). At the moment this wave is at the final stage of development. Let’s view its structure at Н4.

H4. The wave 3 ended with a finishing diagonal triangle. We’ll likely see formation of the upward correction 4 at the new week. As a result, we recommend considering longs at the beginning of the new week.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7212

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Euro remains under pressure
30 November 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

EUR/USD continues moving downwards. After a clear rebound from the horizontal Kijun-sen line on Friday, the pair as well consolidated below the Tenkan line. The lines themselves, in turn, have formed another dead cross, confirming the bearish sentiment of market participants. It is obvious to expect the minimums update in the near future, but sharp fall in unlikely to follow since the current levels contain a great number of support levels. In addition, the Chinkou Span line is in the zone of oversoldness on the higher timeframes.

Technical levels: support – 1.0560; resistance – 1.0600.

Trade recommendations: out of market.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7217

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for December 1

Elizabeth Belugina

Pay attention to the bloc of Chinese data on Tuesday morning – the releases, especially Caixin manufacturing PMI, will be important for the market’s risk sentiment. The forecasts are rather well, though China’s manufacturing sector probably remained in bad shape. During American session watch ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast is positive): this release is an important gauge of the US economy.

EUR/USD remained under pressure ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday as the regulator will likely expand QE and/or cut the deposit rate. German retail sales and Italian CPI fell both by 0.4% on Monday. German inflation came in line with expectations. At the same time, the recent lows haven’t been confirmed by daily RSI. Traders are cautious waiting for the events of the second part of the week. Support is at 1.9565, 1.0520/00 and 1.0480. Resistance is in the 1.0650 area.

GBP/USD visited levels below 1.5000. Strong support is located in the 1.5000/4980 area. Failure here will lead to a much deeper decline. Resistance is at 1.5050, 1.5100 and 1.5150. The Bank of England will release bank stress tests results and the BOE financial stability report. The regulator may ask commercial banks to increase reserves in case of economic problems. Such step may be viewed as a type of monetary tightening. Governor Mark Carney will speak at 09:00 GMT.

USD/JPY is trying to fix above 123.00. The short-term technical outlook has improved. Next resistance levels are at 123.60 and 124.00. Support is at 122.50 and 122.20. Focus on the market’s risk sentiment and the US data releases.

AUD/USD tested 0.7170, but then turned up to 0.7200. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates unchanged early on Tuesday. However, taking into account the deep decline in commodity prices (in particular, iron ore), the RBA can alter its statement to bit a more dovish one. Supportisat 0.7150. Resistanceliesinthe 0.7240/50 area.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7227

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade ideas for December 1

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0691 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.00, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.19

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5170, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5140 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0466, STOP LOSS 1.0195

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7382, STOP LOSS 0.7149

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3557, STOP LOSS 1.3270 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 131.11 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0830, TAKE PROFIT 1.1050, STOP LOSS 1.0805 (revised)

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4215 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 185.15, TAKE PROFIT 188.81, STOP LOSS 184.15

Trade ideas:

EUR/GBP: REVISE SELL AT 0.7040, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7085 (revised)

NZD/USD: Possibly BUY

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7237

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/NZD: sell target - 1.5720
1 December 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/NZD broke sideways price range
• Next sell target - 1.5720

EUR/NZD continues to fall strongly – following the earlier breakout of the support level 1.6200, which is the lower boundary of the narrow sideways price range inside which the pair has been trading from the end of October (the upper boundary of this price range stands at the resistance level 1.6500). The breakout of the support level 1.6200 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3), which belongs to the primary impulse wave ③ , which started from the resistance level 1.6500 in November.

EUR/NZD is likely to fall further inside the active impulse waves (3) and ③ toward the next sell target at the support level 1.5720.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7238

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for December 2

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar gains remain capped at the beginning of the week: USD index holds below the 100 point resistance. November Manufacturing PMI, released on Tuesday, was a disappointment for traders: it came below the forecast at 48.6. On Wednesday, the Fed’s chief Yellen will deliver a speech in Washington. You should also watch the ADP NFP on Wednesday. However, the most important is yet to come: Yellen’s speech in Congress on Thursday and the US labor market data on Friday will really matter for the US Dollar. If ADP on Wednesday doesn’t disappoint badly, USD could resume the upside tomorrow.

EUR/USD recovered to 1.0615 on Tuesday (local resistance). Watch the euro zone’s inflation data on Wednesday (forecasts – slight improvement). However, they are not expected to change the global picture: the ECB president Mario Draghi is widely expected to announce additional easing measures on Thursday’s meeting. We expect EUR/USD to hit 1.0500 ahead of the meeting and to break lower in case if the easing is announced. If there is no easing on Thursday, EUR/USD could jump higher towards the 1.0800 area. However, don’t forget about “the Fed’s factor” – US dollar still remains the beloved currency of the crowd.

Commodity block currencies strengthened gradually (AUD and NZD), but in the current conditions the rally could end quickly. Watch the Australian GDP tomorrow: the forecast is upbeat, so the pair could jump towards the 0.7380 resistance before reversing ahead of the Fed's news at the end of the week. Your should also watch the Bank of Canada meeting on Wednesday – rate is expected to stay on hold, but the USD/CAD pair still has potential for more upside.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7244

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Euro might update lows
2 December 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

EUR/USD corrected to the four-hour Ichimoku cloud lower border yesterday. As expected, the growth was induced by the pair's oversoldness. Let us note that the bulls have only managed to test the Senkou Span A levels. This morning, we are already observing the negative dynamics in the market. The prices' dive below the Tenkan and Kijun lines support is obvious to attract more sellers to the market. In this case, we might as well witness new lows.

Technical levels: support – 1.0600, 1.0560; resistance – 1.0640.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0610/20; SL — 1.0640; TP1 — 1.0560; TP2 — 1.0500.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7245

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Pound holding above lines
2 December 2015
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The bulls managed to restore the GBP/USD currency pair rate into the 1.5120 area yesterday. The growth was of correctional nature, as we have mentioned earlier, since Chinkou Span was indicating the pair's oversoldness. However, the bears have once again started pressuring by the end of the day, returning trades to the 1.5060 mark. It is here that the Tenkan and Kijun lines are, so far holding the bears' further progress back. But the break through this level can be critical – there is a possibility of the rate's decline to this week's earlier lows, to the 50th figure.

Technical levels: support – 1.5000, 1.5060; resistande – 1.5080.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.5050; SL — 1.5070; TP1 — 1.5000; TP2 — 1.4970.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7246

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for December 2

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0691

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.00, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.19

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5170, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5140 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0466, STOP LOSS 1.0195 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7382, STOP LOSS 0.7240 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3557, STOP LOSS 1.3270 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 131.11

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7040, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7085

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0830, TAKE PROFIT 1.1050, STOP LOSS 1.0805

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 185.15, TAKE PROFIT 188.81, STOP LOSS 184.15

Trade ideas:

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.6610, TAKE PROFIT 0.6719, STOP LOSS 0.6577

_________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7249

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for December 3

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar index recovered the losses it suffered on Tuesday gaining especially versus the euro, British pound and Japanese yen. According to the data from ADP, the US economy added 217K jobs in November (vs. the forecast of 191K). Unit labor costs rose by 1.8% vs. 1.1% expected – another positive development. The Federal Reserve’s Chair Janet Yellen will likely confirm that December 16 FOMC meeting will be ‘live’ meaning that the Fed’s policy may be changed. Yellen will speak later on Wednesday and then testify at 15:00 GMT on Thursday. Note that America will release ISM non-manufacturing PMI as well at 15:00 GMT on Thursday, though the release probably won’t be the big market mover ahead of the nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

EUR/USD returned to the 1.0600 area and below on Wednesday. Traders await the results of the ECB meeting. The central bank will announce its interest rate decision at 12:45 GMT (the cut in deposit rate is likely), and at 13:30 GMT Mario Draghi will host a press conference. At the ECB’s last meeting in October Draghi said that the regulator would reconsider its policy in December hinting at the possibility of additional monetary easing in the form of QE monthly increase and overall extension. Draghi also noted that the option of reducing deposit rates had been discussed. Euro zone’s November inflation figures released on Wednesday came out lower than expected thus confirming the case for the ECB to ease its policy. Still, much of the easing has been already priced in EUR/USD’s rate since October as the pair descended from 1.13 on October 22 to the current range around 1.06. We are quite certain that the ECB will act on Thursday, the question is whether the central bank will do just enough to keep the euro from rising or do more than expected by the market and drive the single currency to 1.0500 and lower? With all the speculation about potential steps of the ECB, it’s difficult to say what is currently priced in. At this point, the market has, as far as we can judge, priced in 15-point deposit rate cut, an extension of QE and partly priced in the increase in monthly purchases. Remember that Mario Draghi is known for delivering more than the market thinks. The CFTC hasn’t released new data on the large players’ positioning, but we can assume that although the number of the euro shorts has increased, there’s room for more. As a result, the risks for the euro are definitely to the downside. Support is at 1.0520/00 and 1.0460. Beware of spikes in the 12:40-14:00 GMT period.

GBP/USD slid below 1.5000. British construction PMI disappointed and there’s only the UK services PMI due at 09:30 GMT on Thursday. The pair is testing support at 1.4950 and may try to hold above this area, though the risks of a slide to 1.4888 and much further have significantly increased. Resistance is at 1.5030, 1.5100 and 1.5150.USD/JPY wants to test 123.60. An increase to 124.00 will make USD sellers return. Support is at 123.00. AUD/USD paused at 0.7340, near the top of the short-term uptrend. Australia will release trade balance early on Thursday. Lower data will make Aussie slide to support at 0.7280/50. Next resistance is at 0.7380.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7255

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/CAD: buy target - 0.9000
4 December 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• NZD/CAD rising inside intermediate ABC correction (2)
• Next buy target - 0.9000

NZD/CAD has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions inside the C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (2) from the middle of November (which started when the price reversed up from the support level 0.8600). The active C-wave recently broke the resistance level 0.8800 – which intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair.

NZD/CAD is expected to rise further in the active C-wave toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 0.9000 (target price calculated for the completion of the active ABC correction (2) and the top of the previous primary ABC wave ② from September). Strong support remains at 0.8800.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7271

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for December 7-13

By Elizabeth Belugina

The meeting of the European Central Bank clearly disappointed the market. After Mario Draghi’s comments in October and November the market was clearly pricing in a big expansion of monetary easing and was positioned bearishly on the single currency. The ECB, however, delivered too little. There was a squeeze in EUR shorts and the currency soared.

In short, the ECB cut deposit rate only by the minimal number expected of 10 bps, didn’t increase the monthly amount of bond purchases and extended QE by only 6 months. There clearly are disagreements within the ECB’s Governing Council. Draghi failed to persuade Bundesbank Jens Weidmann and some other policymakers to adopt more aggressive monetary easing. It’s also interesting that Draghi didn’t reply on the question whether the ECB will make further cuts to the deposit rates. This is positive for the euro in the near term.

Still, euro’s reaction to the upside was very violent and exceptional. Formally, the divergence in policy between the euro area and the United States is still present. Good US employment data solidified the prospects of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike on December 16. However, the market is now more and more leaning to the expectations that the Fed’s rate increases will be small and gradual.

Next week there will much less intense in terms of news from the euro area. There won’t be important economic data to either confirm or deny the fact that the state of the euro zone’s economy is getting better. The most important thing to watch will be what Weidmann says on Thursday. European finance ministers will meet on Monday and Tuesday. Traders and will keep trying to guess what the Fed will do on December 16 and, even more importantly, how the US central bank will act after that. The most important releases in the US will take place on Friday (retail sales, PPI).

EUR/USD faces resistance in the 1.1000/1.1050 area (daily MAs). A break higher will open the way to 1.1300.

Our main scenario is that next week the bears will try to at least partly erase the gains made on the ECB meeting. The ECB president Mario Draghi will speak late on Friday, December 4, and may once again move the market.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7276

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for December 7-13

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY spent most of the week consolidating in the 123.60/122.20 area.

Next week the most important day in Japan’s economic calendar will be Tuesday: the nation will release current account and final Q3 GDP figures. There will also be a speech of the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda, though the central bank is unlikely to deviate from its current approach of keeping the amount of monetary stimulus unchanged.

The main driver of USD/JPY will continue to be the US dollar and the news from America. Here the main releases will be on Friday (retail sales, PPI). US employment left the door open for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike on December 16. The Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen warned against waiting to raise rates. At the same time, we expect that the US central bank will try to make rate increases as gentle as possible, so the main scenario is that the US dollar won’t have enough strength to continue its ascent against Japanese currency. In the 124.00 area and higher we will likely see Japanese companies selling US dollars. The pair has support at 121.50. A decline below this level will open the way down to 120.00. Still, for the longer term the uptrend support above 119.00 should remain in place taking into account the divergence in policy of the US and Japanese central banks.

Another thing, which will have an impact on USD/JPY fluctuations, in the coming week is the market’s risk sentiment. Watch Chinese trade data on Tuesday and inflation figures on Wednesday. Weaker readings will affect the pair, while better readings will be positive.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7277

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis

Daily. Last week the pair has completely finished descending wave [c] of X, which is an impulse of good shape. At the moment the pair is forming new upward part of the long corrective wave (4). We see the bullish zigzag Z.

H4. This week we expect the price to go a bit higher in the impulse [a], after which the pair will start small downward correction . The approximate scheme of the future move is shown at the chart.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7299