Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/NZD: next sell target
12 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

• EUR/NZD broke multiple support levels

• Next sell target - 1.4200

EUR/NZD has been under strong bearish pressure recently after the pair reversed down from the resistance zone located between the resistance level 1.4800 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the end of February. The subsequent sharp downward price thrust broke through multiple support levels – 1.4600, 1.4510 (which was set as the sell target in our previous report for this pair), the support trendline of the wide weekly down channel from last year, the round support level 1.4500 – and more recently it broke the support level 1.4400.

EUR/NZD is expected to fall further in the active minor impulse 3 toward the next sell target 1.4200. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the resistance level 1.4400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4066

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 13

US dollar corrected down on Thursday versus the major currencies as America released weaker than expected retail sales figures (-0.6% vs. the forecast of +0.3%). Another month of contraction in the retail sales could raise serious doubts regarding the positive effect of weak energy prices. The unemployment claims, however, were better – lower – than expected. On Friday America will release producer prices and consumer sentiment data.

EUR/USD tested levels below 1.0500, but then corrected up to 1.0680. Resistance is at 1.0700 and 1.0830. However, the general market’s sentiment about the euro remains bearish. Support is at 1.0560 and 1.0500.

GBP/USD recovered almost to 1.5030, but met resistance there. The risks are to the downside. Support is at 1.4915 and 1.4813. Bank of England's Governor Mark Carney sounded a bit dovish saying that low global CPI and strong pound may weigh on UK prices for some time.

USD/JPY may have formed a temporary top and can slide to the 120.00/119.70 area. Resistance is at 121.65 and 122.00. AUD/USD will face resistance at 0.7800 and looks set to print 0.7500.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4077

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar awaits the next week’s Fed

By Kira Iukhtenko

The past week has become very successful for the US currency with the US dollar index breaking above 100 points for the first time since 2003. Demand for the greenback was pushed up by the increased expectations of the Fed’s rate hike in mid-2015.

On the new week the US economic calendar is full of important releases, but the most important event is the Fed’s policy meeting on March 17-18. There is a high chance that the Fed excludes its pledge to stay “patient” in monetary policy from its forward guidance. If it happens, FOMC will theoretically open the way for a rate hike in June. The US dollar will stay in demand ahead of the meeting.

The US labor market data supports the hawkish expectations, but price growth remains weak. US consumer prices have never reached the Fed’s target of 2% over the past 3 years, while in 2015 monthly CPI turned negative. We’ll see how the Fed appraises the current economic conditions: it will also release renewed projections on Wednesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4084

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bearish sentiment prevails

By Elizaveta Belugina

The euro area is now frequently compared with Japan. Last year the Bank of Japan has launched an enormous monetary stimulus program in order to encourage inflation. This made investors buy Japanese shares and sell the yen.

The same can be now seen in Europe. The ECB has started its more than 1-trillion-euro QE on March 9. Bond yields in many countries of the euro area fell close to the record lows. As a result, European investors are going elsewhere for higher returns. Low interest rates made the region’s stock market surge. However, foreign investors sell the euro in order to hedge their European assets. The supply of the single currency is increasing because of the QE, while the demand for it remains week. As a result, it hit 12-year lows against the greenback. Analysts revised down their forecasts for EUR/USD targeting parity and lower.

The pair will likely remain under pressure. 3 negative factors are affecting the euro: low oil prices, the ECB’s QE and the expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike this summer. Although the currency is oversold and there’s an ever-present risk of a short covering rally, the key is now the market’s sentiment, and that is quite bearish.

EUR/USD made it down from above 1.0800 to 1.0500. Correction towards 1.0700 on Thursday allowed traders to take profit. If support at 1.0500 fails, the euro will fall to 1.0200. In the short-term resistance will be limited by 1.0830 and 1.1090. Our recommendation is still to sell on correction up or on the break of the support.

Given the fast speed of decline and the upcoming Fed’s meeting on Wednesday, we’ll probably see some consolidation in EUR/USD, especially in the first half of the week. Pay attention to the release of the euro area’s and German economic sentiment figures on Tuesday and the ECB’s new tranche of TLTRO for the euro area’s banks on Thursday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4092

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 16

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0521, TAKE PROFIT 1.0400, STOP LOSS 1.0593

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.62, STOP LOSS 120.59

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0295, STOP LOSS 0.9908 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2865, STOP LOSS 1.2596 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6961, STOP LOSS 0.7245

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7365, TAKE PROFIT 0.7515, STOP LOSS 0.7265

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.4810, TAKE PROFIT 1.4646, STOP LOSS 1.4900

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7790, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7865

EUR/JPY: Look to SELL

EUR/CHF: SELL AT 1.0605, TAKE PROFIT 1.0414, STOP LOSS 1.0685

EUR/CAD: Look to SELL

GBP/JPY: SELL AT 180.00, TAKE PROFIT 176.75, STOP LOSS 180.80

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4107

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks: what to expect from the Fed?
16 March 2015

FOMC policy announcement, economic projections and statement will be released at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, March 18. Press conference from Janet Yellen will follow at 18:30 GMT.

What do analysts at large banks expect from the meeting?

CIBC: The Fed will likely drop its pledge to stay patient. However, the sentence will likely be replaced by an emphasis on being 'data dependent'. Softness in recent growth indicators will be mentioned. What’s more, the Fed will cite reasons to limit pace of hikes - rising USD and yields falling overseas. Market reaction to the meeting will be muted.

Deutsche Bank: FOMC is expected to change its forward guidance language so as to allow the Committee the flexibility to raise interest rates sometime around the middle of this year (possibly in June). Fed’s economic projections should indicate a more confident outlook for the labor market, highlight disinflationary risks. During the press conference Yellen will likely elaborate on the FOMC's rationale for beginning the process of policy normalization.

Barclays: The Fed is expected to drop "patience" from its statement at the March meeting. However, the statement will likely introduce downside risk to inflation from a stronger USD. As a result, markets will believe that June rate hikes are off the table and will see the USD rally paused.

Goldman Sachs: The normalization of US monetary policy is a powerful force for EUR/USD lower looking ahead.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4119

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Mar .17

By Kira Iukhtenko

US dollar is trading under slight bearish pressure following the last week’s rally. Markets remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to change its forward guidance, opening the way for a rate hike in June. At the same time they will likely sound concerned by the deflationary threat hovering above the economy. We expect the US dollar to remain supported at least before the meeting.

EUR/USD recovered towards 1.0600 on Monday. On Tuesday pay attention to the ZEW economic sentiment indices in Germany and euro zone – forecasts are upbeat. There is a high chance of a bullish correction in EUR/USD, resistance is seen at 1.0650 and 1.0700.

GBP/USD rebounded to 1.4800 after hitting 1.4700 on Friday. Wednesday will likely be a volatile day for the cable: UK labor data, annual budget and meeting minutes in the European session and the Fed’s announcement in the US session.

USD/JPY holds below the last week’s peak of 122 yen and is forming a short-term triangle that will likely be broken to the upside this week. BOJ will hold its policy meeting tonight – no changes in policy are expected now.

Commodity currencies are also in demand: AUD/USD recovered to 0.7650, NZD/USD – to 0.7390. RBA is scheduled to release meeting minutes tonight at 00:30 GMT. We’ll see whether there are hints on a rate cut in the coming meetings or not.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4123

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 17

Open positions*:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.62, STOP LOSS 120.59

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.4810, TAKE PROFIT 1.4646, STOP LOSS 1.4900

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0295, STOP LOSS 0.9908

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6961, STOP LOSS 0.7245

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0605, TAKE PROFIT 1.0414, STOP LOSS 1.0685

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2865, STOP LOSS 1.2596

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 180.00, TAKE PROFIT 176.75, STOP LOSS 180.80

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7365, TAKE PROFIT 0.7515, STOP LOSS 0.7265

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0655, TAKE PROFIT 1.0432, STOP LOSS 1.0727

EUR/JPY: SELL at 129.20, TAKE PROFIT 125.72, STOP LOSS 130.20

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7790, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7865

EUR/CAD: SELL AT 1.3735, TAKE PROFIT 1.3230, STOP LOSS 1.3835

___________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4129

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks: positioning on EUR/USD

Danske Bank: SELL LIMIT at 1.0655, TAKE PROFIT 1.0432, STOP LOSS 1.0727 (set on Mar. 17)

Credit Suisse holds SHORT from 1.0560, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.0684 (entered on Mar. 16)

Morgan Stanley holds SHORT from 1.0650, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.0750 (entered on Mar. 12)

Citi Bank holds SHORT from 1.1368, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.1690 (entered on Feb. 6)

Citi Bank holds SHORT from 1.1430, TAKE PROFIT 1.0400, STOP LOSS 1.1710 (entered on Feb. 3)

JPMorgan holds SHORT from 1.1250, TAKE PROFIT 1.0100, STOP LOSS 1.1700 (entered on Jan. 26)

Danske Bank holds SHORT from 1.1578, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.1000 (entered on Jan. 20)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4131

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 18

EUR/USD rose above 1.0600. US dollar was affected by news that American housing starts fell by 17% in February. Resistance is at 1.0700 and 1.0830. Support is at 1.0570, 1.0500 and 1.0450 ahead of 1.0300. The focus is on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday and press conference at 18:30 GMT.

GBP/USD met resistance in the 1.4850 area and slid to 1.4750. The UK will release labor market data and the Bank of England’s meeting minutes at 09:30 GMT. Support is at 1.4700 and 1.4650. Resistance is at 1.4900 and 1.4950. Bears will dominate as long as the pair is below 1.4900.

USD/JPY is in 121.50/10 area. The Bank of Japan left its policy unchanged in line with expectations having to impact on the pair. Dollar/yen is consolidating ahead of the Fed meeting. Narrow range is a sign that a volatile move is coming. Support is at 120.50, 120.25 and 120.00. A hawkish Fed will make USD test 122.00 and 122.90.

AUD/USD is consolidating around 0.7650. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia March meeting showed that the central bank still thinks that Aussie is too high regarding the fundamentals. As a result, traders will keep expecting that the RBA will further ease its policy. On the hourly chart we see the pair consolidating within a triangle. Support is at 0.7610 and a break below this level will bring the prices down towards 0.7500. Resistance is at 0.7680 ahead of the downtrend resistance line in the 0.7750 area.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4145

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: consolidation under cloud
18 March 2015

By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Taking hold above 1.0500, the currency pair is slowly trying to recover. Yesterday, the prices grew to the 1.0600 mark, breaking the resistance of the four-hour Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-sen lines. This can be a good starting point for the bulls to grow to the Ichimoku cloud lower border, in case of consolidation at the current levels.

However, if 1.0570 does not stand under the bears pressure, we will expect the rate decline to the lows of the week beginning.

Technical levels: support – 1.0570; resistance – 1.0600, 1.0635, 1.0700.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0560; SL — 1.0580; TP1 — 1.0500; TP2 — 1.0450,

2. Buy — 1.0570; SL — 1.0550; TP1 — 1.0635; TP2 — 1.0700.

More:http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4146

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: bears not resting
18 March 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

As expected, the currency pair tested the four-hour Tenkan-sen line resistance early this week, recovering to the 1.4850 mark. Here they were met by a strong resistance that did not allow them to fix inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel. In addition, the pressure was exerted by the fellow-line - Kijun-sen, which triggered the currency pair rate to tumble into the negative zone again, set to continue the downtrend.

At the same time, Chinkou Span hints on the pair's oversoldness. We do not rule out consolidation at the current levels and another testing of the 48th figure. If the test fails, we will very soon witness trades in the 1.4600/30 area.

Technical levels: support – 1.4700/30; resistance – 1.4780, 1.4800, 1.4850.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.4780; SL — 1.4810; TP1 — 1.4700; TP2 — 1.4630.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4147

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for March 18

Open positions*:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.62, STOP LOSS 120.59

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.4810, TAKE PROFIT 1.4646, STOP LOSS 1.4900

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0295, STOP LOSS 0.9908

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2957, STOP LOSS 1.2730

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 129.00, TAKE PROFIT 125.72, STOP LOSS 130.20

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6961, STOP LOSS 0.7245

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0605, TAKE PROFIT 1.0414, STOP LOSS 1.0685

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 180.00, TAKE PROFIT 176.75, STOP LOSS 180.80

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7365, TAKE PROFIT 0.7515, STOP LOSS 0.7265

Trade signals:

EUR/USD: Look to SELL

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.764, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7735 (revised)

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3735, TAKE PROFIT 1.3230, STOP LOSS 1.3835

_____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4149

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Mar. 19

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar remains under slight bearish pressure on Wednesday ahead of the Fed's policy announcement. The Fed will likely change its policy statement, opening the way for a rate hike in June. However, we expect the greenback to decline following the meeting as the Fed will highlight the negative economic risks. On Thursday United States are scheduled to release jobless claims, current accout and Philly Fed manufacturing index (forecasts - upbeat).

EUR/USD consolidates slightly above 1.0600 and remains vulnerable to further selloff. The pair is unlikely to overcome the 1.0650/80 resistance area. ECB is scheduled to hold another TLTRO auction on Thursday - the demand is expected to be low. Watch the EU economic summit headlines - we could get some news on the Greek question.

GBP/USD plunged to 1.4630, disappointed by weak UK labor data and dovish BOE minutes. MPC members were focused on the downside risks to economic growth and inflation on the past meeting. They are seriously worried by growing policy divergence between the ECB and the BOE.

On top of that, pay attention to the New Zealand GDP tonight. Swiss National Bank will hold its policy meeting later in the day - we could get some hints on rate hikes planned for the coming months.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4164

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
19 March 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0500 (EUR 3.3bln), 1.0600 (EUR 2.1bln);

GBP/USD: 1.4875 (GBP 252m), 1.4910 (GBP 531m), 1.4950 (GBP 717m);

USD/JPY: 120.00 (USD 447m), 121.00 (USD 330m), 122.00 (USD 2.4bln), 122.50 (USD 661m);

USD/CAD: 1.2750 (USD 240m), 1.2780 (USD 320m);

AUD/USD: 0.7630 (AUD 230m), 0.7700 (AUD 314m), 0.7800 (AUD 2bln), 0.7915 (AUD 2bln);

NZD/USD: 0.7180 (NZD 441m), 0.7350 (NZD 201m);

EUR/JPY: 128.50 (USD 326m), 130.00 (USD 258m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2448

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for March 19

Open positions:

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0605, STOP LOSS 1.0685

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.3735, TAKE PROFIT 1.3230, STOP LOSS 1.3835

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7365, TAKE PROFIT 0.7611, STOP LOSS 0.7310 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 120.40, TAKE PROFIT 119.29, STOP LOSS 120.88

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL on return towards 131.67

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7372, STOP LOSS 0.7160

GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

USD/CHF: Possibly BUY

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4171

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks: what to expect from EUR/USD?

19 March 2015

Despite the change in Fed's forward guidance, the overall tone has become much softer. As a result, we've seen a strong wave of USD selling durring Yellen's press-conference: EUR/USD jumped to 1.1044. The majority of banks' positions were stopped out.

The only bank that stays in EUR/USD is Citi Bank:

1) SHORT from 1.1368, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.1690 (since Feb. 6)

2) SHORT from 1.1430, TAKE PROFIT 1.0400, STOP LOSS 1.1710 (since Feb. 3)

Meanwhile, Commerzbank sees the bullish correction limited at 1.1045. They are getting ready to reenter shorts.

RBC Capital Markets are also going to sell in the $1.1050-1.1100 range, targeting parity in the medium term.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4174

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 20

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD spiked to the downtrend resistance line connecting December highs and levels at the end of February in the area of 1.1045, but failed to sustain the advance. Retest of 1.0500 now looks quite likely. The market’s still bearish on the euro, but in the coming sessions volatility is going to be high, and we may see some attempts to bring the single currency higher, at better levels for selling. Traders are still digesting the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting and may remain indecisive for some time. Resistance area is at 1.0950/1.1000. Friday will be the second day of the EU economic summit, but no important decisions are expected: the Greek problem will take more time to solve.

GBP/USD has made a very volatile move to 1.5160 (bottom of the daily Cloud, 50% Fibo). The following selloff halted around 1.4800 and now the pair is consolidating in the 1.4900 zone. Britain will release public sector net borrowing at 09:30 GMT, forecast is negative. Yield spread continues to favor the USD and British labor data this week disappointed. The pair’s vulnerable for decline to 1.4720/00.

USD/JPY has touched 119.30 before recovering to 120.80. The Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes will be released early on Friday. This won’t be much of the news because the meeting in question was more than a month ago. The bulls will face resistance at 121.30 and then at 122.00.

AUD/USD spiked up, but failed to close above 0.7800 on Wednesday. There’s a band of resistance in the 0.7850/0.7900 area. Support is at 0.7650 and 0.7560; the bearish daily Ichimoku Cloud is still rather thick. Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Glenn Stevens will speak during Friday’s Asian session. This week we’ve learned that the RBA has become more dovish at its last meeting, and Stevens may provide some confirmation of this idea.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4180

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for Mar. 23-29

By Kira Iukhtenko

Less hawkish than expected Federal Reserve failed to support the cable for long. On the weekly chart the pair formed a long-shadowed candle with a small body, but we are closing the week far below the prior 1.4800 support.

Dovish BOE meeting minutes limited the sterling’s recovery. MPC members were focused on the downside risks to economic growth and inflation on the past meeting. BOE rate hike expectations shifted to 2016 as a result. On new week watch UK inflation figures on Tuesday. Consumer prices are expected to extend the decline. On Thursday Great Britain will publish February retail sales.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4196

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for March 23-29

By Elizaveta Belugina

During the past week the advance of USD/JPY halted, and levels above the 122.00 handle were unattainable for the bulls. US dollar tested 119.30 before recovering above 120.50.

The pair was driven mainly by the news from the United States about the Federal Reserve’s policy. As the Fed provided a more dovish stance on interest rates, the greenback’s appreciation slowed down. The overall trend for the US currency, however, is still bullish as American economic fundamentals are better than in other advanced economies including Japan.

As for the Bank of Japan, it left the policy unchanged in March in line with market’s expectations. On the one hand, Japanese policymakers keep repeating that they will reach the 2% inflation target in the year beginning in April, even if to do this they will have to increase monetary stimulus. At the same time, the minutes of the central bank’s February meeting showed that government officials who were present at the meeting said that there’s no need to hurry with encouraging inflation.

The bottom line is that although the medium-term outlook is positive, right now USD/JPY has few drivers for a decisive growth. Note that as we’re getting closer to the end of the month and the end of the fiscal year in Japan, demand for Japanese currency will go up as a result of the profit repatriation by Japanese companies. Next week all eyes will be on the US economic releases, especially inflation figures. Only on Friday there will be a block of economic statistics from Japan including inflation, retail sales & household spending data. Trading will likely be once again taking place in the 120.00/122.00 range.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4199