• The Forex, Binary Options Forum - welcomes you to our Community!

    DigitalCashPalace Forum is dedicated to discussions about Forex, Binary Options, commodities, stocks related.

    Please take a look around, and feel free to .

Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

CANADIAN DOLLAR NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
12:55 16.05.2017

The Lonnie has strengthened against the USD on Monday as oil prices spiked to their highest level since late April after the large oil producers – Russia and Saudi Arabia – agreed to extend the supply cut deal for another nine months.

OPEC-led output curbs and talks over extension of the current production cut agreement will further support oil prices and commodity-sensitive CAD (the historically close link between the Canadian dollar and oil prices has strengthened in recent weeks).

The Canadian dollar’s outlook was less optimistic last week when Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the 6 nation’s banks for the first time in more than four years. Moody’s provided a rationale for their actions in their statement accompanying the decision to lower the long-term debt and deposit ratings. Moody’s noted that Canadian private sector debt amounted to 185% of the country’s GDP at the end of the last year. House prices soared despite the government’s desperate efforts to cool the market. A marked growth in Canadian consumer debt and heightened housing prices make consumers and Canadian banking industry more vulnerable to downside risks the nation’s economy face, Moody’s analysts note. Canadian government holds an opposite view. According to Canadian policymakers, the country’s financial sector is resilient and well-capitalized. The six downgraded banks have strong capital and liquidity, supported by their profitability, so there is no reason for Canadians to worry about their assets.

Another negative factor that affects Lonnie’s performance is growing concerns over the US protectionism that may lead to the disruption of US-Canada trade relationships developed under the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The following factors won’t allow the CAD to strengthen against its major peers in the near-term and long-term future. The recent appreciation of the Loonie will likely be short-lived. So, we would rather bet for a modest depreciation of the Canadian dollar in the upcoming months, than going long on CAD.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/canadian_dollar_near_term_outlook_1050
 
MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 17
06:14 17.05.2017

US dollar weakness extended in the course of the Asian session with DXY dropping to 97.93 and giving up all of the gains it made after Trump’s election victory last year. This came after the New York Times spared the details of James Comey’s memo. The former FBI Director wrote that Trump asked him to drop an investigation into ties between Michael Flynn (former White House security advisor). The following news deepened a political crisis for Trump’s administration by introducing the possibility that the president may have obstructed justice which is an impeachable offense. Donald Trump is already reeling from scalding criticism of his revelation of highly classified intelligence information to Russian ambassador, the recent news only aggravated the situation.
The market perceived the information about Comey's memo and Trump's offense potentially leading to impeachment as yet more uncertainties that tax cuts, fiscal stimulus are delivered in the forseable future.
The euro spiked above 1.1100 in the Tokyo morning. European data continues to be positive. Yesterday we received upbeat German ZEW index that rose to 20.6 from 19.5. Trade balance data came in better than expected. The dissemination of risk surrounding the French presidential election gave rise to speculation that the ECB might tilt its guidance to a hawkish side and remove the words “or lower” from its monetary policy statement.
Aussie dipped to 0.7420 in the hours of the Asian session. Quarterly wage data is still at record low level. It undermines consumer spending. Monthly consumer confidence data from Australia confirmed the weaker readings on the weekly consumer sentiment. Today, the market will be waiting for the Eurozone annual inflation figures coming at 12:00. The consensus forecast is the final CPI remaining at previous month inflation rate (at around 1.9%).
Kiwi rose above 0.6910 against USD following the upbeat release of quarterly PPI input/output figures. The outlook for NZD/USD currency pair is still neutral. Kiwi is expected to trade within the range of 0.6850 – 0.6950.
UK CPI that we received yesterday was stronger than expected. But the pound’s reaction was subdued given the Bank of England’s content to allow inflation figures to its coveted target. Today’s focus will be on Britain’s average hourly earnings, claimant count change and unemployment rate all released at 11:30 am.
USD/CAD went lower to 1.3590 ignoring the increase in US crude inventories. Keep an eye on Canadian monthly manufacturing sales and crude oil inventories that will be released at 3:30 pm and 5:30 pm (MT time) respectively.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_17__1062
 
USD/CAD: LOONIE GOT A FREE RIDE ON WOLF WAVE
06:36 17.05.2017

Recommendations:
hold shorts (SELL 1,365 SL 1,3705 TP1 1,3525 TP2 1,337),
BUY 1,3435 SL 1,338 TP 1,365.
On the USD/CAD daily chart, "Wolf Waves" pattern is in the process of realization. The main scenario is to develop correction towards 50% or 61.8% levels of the CD wave with a subsequent rebound. To continue the downward movement bears need to test the support at 1.3435.

Screenshot_2017_05_17_07_16_51.png


On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the breakout of support at 1.365 increased the risks for implementation of 161.8% target in the Crab pattern. It corresponds to the lower border of the upward trading channel.

Screenshot_2017_05_17_07_17_07.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad:_loonie_got_a_free_ride_on_wolf_wave_1064
 
EUR/USD: "V-TOP" AT THE LOCAL HIGH
06:36 17.05.2017

1495002937-c35b5361a49c5af0c10ac96dc76d4bad_1200x1200_q90.png


The price has been rising since a "Triple Bottom" was formed at the last low. However, bulls faced resistance at 1.1122, so there's an opportunity to have a downward correction towards the nearest support at 1.1066. If we see a pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on resistance at 1.1122 - 1.1152 as the next bullish target.

1495002937-93d05c6f9e68b4a8b0e0ddb885ef9f3e_1200x1200_q90.png


We've got a "V-Top" at the local high. If this pattern confirms, bears are likely going to test support at 1.1066. Meanwhile, if we a pullback from this level happens, bulls will try to push the price even higher.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"v_top"_at_the_local_high_1065
 
AUD/USD: WILL BULLS SHOW THEIR WEAKNESS?
06:37 17.05.2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, there is a continuation of the near-term bearish trend.There are two resistances at 0.7425 and 0.745. If bulls fail to test them, it will be a sign of their weakness, and it will lead to the formation of short positions.

Screenshot_2017_05_17_07_16_13.png


On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the realization of the Dragon pattern continues. To restore the upward short-term trend, bulls need to test the resistance at 0.7445. But at the same time, bears may easily regain control over the pair. They need to test the quotes located below the support at 0.7395. If it is tested successfully, the expanding wedge will be completed.

Screenshot_2017_05_17_07_16_35.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_will_bulls_show_their_weakness__1066
 
GBP/USD: POUND LOOKS BETTER
06:38 17.05.2017
Technical levels: support – 1.2900; resistance –1.2950, 1.3070.
Trade recommendations:
Buy — 1.2920/30; SL — 1.2900; TP1 — 1.3010; TP2 — 1.3070.
Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are supported by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the Bulls going to breakout an SSA’s resistance.

1495003097-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712827_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_pound_looks_better_1067
 
AUD/USD: AUSSIE KEEP STAYING IN CLOUD
06:40 17.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7370, 0.7420; resistance – 0.7470.
Trade recommendations:
Buy — 0.7420; SL — 0.7400; TP1 — 0.7470.
Sell — 0.7470; SL — 0.7490; TP1 — 0.7380; TP2 — 0.7340.
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and horizontal Senkou Span B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Kijun-sen; the prices are supported by Tenkan-Sen.

1495003179-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dbae66_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_aussie_keep_staying_in_cloud_1068
 
GBP/USD: BULLS GOING TO TEST NEXT RESISTANCE
06:41 17.05.2017

1495002937-3a5a6e29eaa5c823481b75396934e97f_1200x1200_q90.png


The pair is consolidating along the 55 Moving Average, so bulls are likely going to achieve the closest resistance at 1.2964 - 1.2995. As a result, the last high is going to be broken, but there's also an opportunity to have a bearish correction afterwards.

1495002937-5fcc52263ddb1de94ed7b730952bc438_1200x1200_q90.png


There's a consolidation, which is taking place between resistance at 1.2955 and support at 1.2883. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2964 - 1.2988 in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will have a chance to test support at 1.2901 - 1.2883.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bulls_going_to_test_next_resistance_1069
 
XAU/USD NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
10:32 17.05.2017

The bullion rose to $1245 as Trump-related news sparked safe-haven demand.
Gold has started its upsurge last week following Trump’s firing of FBI director James Comey. On Monday, Trump was accused of disclosing the US highly classified intelligence information to Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. The yellow metal got an additional boost following the high-rank meeting in Oval Office.
The latest news appeared on Tuesday in the New York Times. It said that President Donald Trump tried to influence an FBI investigation into the ties between former US security advisor Michael Flynn and Russian authorities. Investors are questioning now whether there is a possibility of impeachment as Donald Trump allegedly obstructed justice (an impeachable offense in the US). The White House denied the NYT’s revelation.
The investors perceived the turmoil in Trump’s West Wing as yet more doubt that tax cuts, fiscal stimulus, and other pro-growth policies will be introduced. The US dollar is still under pressure, while safe-haven assets caught a bid on Trump’s concerns.
The bullion’s prices are hovering near the key resistance at $1247.30 (which a lower border of the previous upward trading channel + it is located near 200-day and 50-day MAs). If bulls manage to test the following level and rise towards $1270, we might see the continuation of the rally towards $1295.80 (this year high). In the opposite scenario, the prices risk sliding towards supports at $1228.60, 1213.85 levels.

1495017113-e6046f42b75ea74e2c81523d81315324_1200x1200_q90.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/xau_usd_near_term_outlook_1081
 
EUR/USD: PRICE TESTING 7/8 MM LEVEL
12:22 17.05.2017

1495023564-c935b54b412ab66292704deb092c669a_1200x1200_q90.png


The price is testing 7/8 MM Level, so wave 2 is about to end. If we see a pullback from this level, there'll be an opportunity to have an impulse in wave (i). In this case, the nearest bearish target will be 6/8 MM Level.

1495023564-3574dbb7cece9a0bbc39def4c5d7e004_1200x1200_q90.png


There's a developing bullish impulse in wave (c) of [y] on the one-hour chart. It seems like wave iv could be a little bit bigger, so 7/8 MM Level is likely going to act as support soon. Also, this wave count requires confirmation, which is a downward impulse in wave i. So, until price doesn't achieve 6/8 MM Level, the current bullish impulse could move on.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_price_testing_7_8_mm_level_1082
 
EUR/USD: NEW HIGH COMING SOON
12:58 17.05.2017

1495025805-7a57b47dcafb5610de3cab2be2cd0f1e_1200x1200_q90.png


The market has been rising since the lower "Window" acted as support. However, there's a bearish "Engulfing", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. So, the pair is likely going to test the next resistance level in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have a downward correction.

1495025804-4e6d1c36a4b1ccf1542309dbedb8f804_1200x1200_q90.png


There's a bullish "Inverted Hammer", which has confirmation, so the price is consolidating. In this case, we're about to have a new local high, so it turns out that the price is going to rise until another bearish pattern forms.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_new_high_coming_soon_1083
 
USD/JPY: BROKEN "WINDOW" AND BEARISH CANDLES
13:04 17.05.2017

1495026201-234957303b0a97c94843bd6c429c0aad_1200x1200_q90.png


Bears have broken the "Window", so the price achieved the 144 Moving Average. Therefore, this broken "Window" is likely going to act as resistance in the coming hours. If we see a pullback from this level, bears will try to push the pair even lower.

1495026201-f0181eb8556ebd219fc3e1d902a7a016_1200x1200_q90.png


There isn't any reversal pattern on the one-hour chart, so all last candles are bearish. In this case, the current decline is going to be continued until any bullish pattern arrives.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_broken_"window"_and_bearish_candles_1084
 
EUR/USD REACHED BUY TARGET 1.1100
16:07 17.05.2017

EUR/USD reached buy target 1.1100
Next buy target - 1.1200
EUR/USD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 1.1100 (which was set as the buy target in out previous forecast for this currency pair) and the resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from January. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave C.
EUR/USD is expected to rise further the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1200 (target price for the termination of the active intermediate ABC correction (2)).

7pST6TFYd.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd_reached_buy_target_1.1100_1086
 
USD/CHF REACHED SELL TARGET 0.9870
16:09 17.05.2017

USD/CHF reached sell target 0.9870
Next sell target - 0.9750
USD/CHF recently broke through the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 0.9870 (previous sell target, which has been reversing the price from last January) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from November. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the C-wave from March.
USD/CHF is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 0.9750 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)).

7pZlzNXJX.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf_reached_sell_target_0.9870_1087
 
MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 18
06:10 18.05.2017

The US dollar was hurt and Treasury yields declined with allegations against Trump on the collusion between his election campaign and Russian entities. This came following the New York Times release of James Comey’s memo. It states that Trump pressured the former FBI Director to drop his investigation into Mike Flynn, former US security adviser, with Russian authorities in the mix. The news
The Trump reflation trade seems now totally unwound, and investors’ economic stimulus hopes are killed. USD/JPY saw a sharp dive overnight. The yen strengthened to 110.54 against the USD. In the Asian session, USD/JPY rebounded to 111.10 as there was little in the news from the US today apart from the appointment of a special counsel to the Russia investigation. We will be waiting for the test of 111.90 to restore the bullish outlook.
The euro spiked to a high above 1.1170 then retreated to 1.1140 as there was nothing in terms of euro specific news today. ECB President Draghi will be speaking tonight in the wake of the French Presidential election. We don’t expect it is a market driving event. Draghi will likely be cautious choosing not to speak of gradual tapering of QE and ECB’s monetary policy projections. There is also a streak of the US data on the agenda: jobless claims and the Philly Fed survey. Also, traders will have a chance to hear Fed president Mester speaking. And there is also a potential for some news from Washington. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will be speaking and the investors will be all ears to hear his view on the economy, trade, US currency, Administration’s fiscal plans.
Aussie rose higher to 0.7470 as the USD retreated. Yesterday’s statement from Standard & Poor’s affirmed Australia’s AAA sovereign rating and maintaining the negative outlook. The driving force of today’s AUD upsurge was upbeat labor market report from Australia with declined unemployment rate and more jobs created.
Kiwi was a big winner yesterday. It rose to 0.6943 but edged down to 0.6930 in the Asian session.
USD/CAD is trading near 1.3620. The currency pair is going through the consolidation phase. A break of resistance at 1.3640 will allow us to bet for a further upsurge towards 1.3670.
In commodities, oil prices lost a few point in the Asian session after settling at a two-week high overnight. A talk about OPEC’s production cuts has partially propped up the fuel but prices remain under pressure from still plentiful supplies.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_18_1097
 
NZD/USD: KIWI IS GAINING ITS STRENGTH
06:27 18.05.2017

Recommendation: BUY 0,695 SL 0,6895 TP 0,708.
On the NZD/USD daily chart, bulls managed to return quotes to the upper boundary of the downward trading channel and to the lower boundary of the previously formed triangle. If the resistance is tested successfully, activation of the inverted Shark pattern will increase the risks of implementation of target 113%. The convergence zone is located within 0.707-0.7085 levels.

Screenshot_2017_05_18_07_01_34.png


On the NZD/USD hourly chart, the Wolff Waves pattern is in the process of realization. A repeated successful test of line 2-4 and resistance at 0.695 can lead to the continuation of the rally towards 0.707.

Screenshot_2017_05_18_07_01_50.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd:_kiwi_is_gaining_its_strength_1099
 
EUR/USD: EURO BROKE THE TREND
06:28 18.05.2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a change in the long-term downward trend. It became clear after quotes went outside the downward trading channel and increased the slope of the medium-term "bullish" trend. In the nearest future, the euro may face a correction once 88.6% target in the inverted "Bat pattern is fulfilled. A successful test of the resistance at 1.12 may lead to the continuation of the rally towards 1.14 and higher.

Screenshot_2017_05_18_07_01_04.png


On the EUR/USD hourly chart, fulfillment of the target 200% (1.12) in the AB = CD pattern may lead to a short-term rollback towards the area of 1.1060-1.1085.

Screenshot_2017_05_18_07_01_18.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_euro_broke_the_trend_1100
 
EUR/USD: "TRIPLE TOP" STOPPED BULLS
06:30 18.05.2017

1495088938-a18e613f4632c302a1147a43d2385b09_1200x1200_q90.png


Bulls have faced resistance at 1.1152, so we've got a "V-Top" pattern. Therefore, the price is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.1122 - 1.1102. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.1198 - 1.1212.

1495088938-3427bd4f78f939a2cd80d72b6ea041ad_1200x1200_q90.png


There's a "Triple Top" pattern, which has been confirmed, so the price is consolidating. The main intraday target is the closest support at 1.1122 - 1.1103, which could be a departure point for a bullish rally towards resistance at 1.1171 - 1.1198.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"triple_top"_stopped_bulls_1101
 
GBP/USD: BEARS GOING TO TEST NEAREST SUPPORT
06:33 18.05.2017

1495088938-79a3c4a99371c2eb6d803fd96699850e_1200x1200_q90.png


The price is consolidating along the 55 Moving Average. It's likely that the pair is going to test support at 1.2945 - 1.2913 in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to reach resistance at 1.2995 - 1.3023.

1495088938-dbd135dd19209c0eb7adbeefafe5e30f_1200x1200_q90.png


There's a consolidation, which is taking place under resistance at 1.2988. The 34 Moving Average is acting as support. In this case, the market is likely going to decline towards the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.2988 - 1.3023 as an intraday target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bears_going_to_test_nearest_support_1102
 
EURO SOARED AMID WHITE HOUSE TURMOIL. WILL BE THERE A CONTINUATION OF THE RALLY?
08:53 18.05.2017

EUR/USD hit 1.1173 level overnight amid concerns over US President Donald Trump’s future following the reports that he tried to interfere with a federal investigation (that he obstructed justice). Some of the Republicans and Democrats called on Wednesday for an independent probe for possible collusion between Trump’s election campaign and Russian authorities. As a result, a former chief Robert Mueller was appointed to investigate the following case.
The euro rally has started following the final round of the French presidential elections as soon as hedge funds and investors opened some fresh long positions. European data continues to be broadly positive, reinforced with German ZEW Economic sentiment index rising to 20.6 from 19.5, Eurozone trade balance figures coming with a surplus, and flat CPI figures. Abating political risk and strong economic fundamentals gave a rise to speculation that the ECB will slightly alter its current dovish guidance at its June meeting by removing the word “or lower” from the pledge to stay on hold or adopt lower rate for the upcoming future.
The recent forecasts from major banks are almost all bullish on the euro.
ABN AMRO Bank gives 5 reasons for the further extension of the recent euro gains.
Fed’s rate hike in June is fully discounted and hike in September is only 50% priced in.
The market participants are waiting for the ECB’s announcement of QE taper that should support the euro in the future.
The allegations against Trump will still present in the headlines. The end of the reflation trade.
More squaring of net-long USD positions.
The technical picture has become more negative. US dollar index moved below the 200-da MA and EUR/USD above this technical level.
ING Bank analysts also believe that euro will be supported in the near-term as investors:
Try to determine the true value of the euro (whether it is still undervalued);
Prepare for a shift in the ECB’s monetary policy stance from extremely dovish to a more hawkish/neutral.
Use the euro as a safe haven to hedge Trump political risk.
Strategists from Danske bank note that the euro lost its shine in the early trades of May 18. EUR/USD looks extremely oversold from the technical view, that is why prices started sliding back. Despite the following decline, Danske analysts are still bullish on EUR/USD. They believe that the pair might have further legs in coming days due to the actions of speculators.
Commerzbank is also long the EUR/USD. It believes that the euro has potential to climb towards 1.1300. The immediate resistance can be found at 1.1200 (23.6% Fibo retracement level of the move down from the 2014 peak at 1.3995).
ANZ FX Research analysts are the only ones who are still skeptical about the further EUR appreciations. They argue that the current strengthening of the single currency is short lived. In the medium term, it is poised to weakening as the ECB may be very slow to change its policy direction pointing out at an absence of underlying inflation and wage pressures.


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ll_be_there_a_continuation_of_the_rally__1104
 
Top