Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie ready to continue falling
3/8/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7580; resistance – 0.7600.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7570; SL — 0.7590; TP1 — 0.7490; TP2 — 0.7420.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the resistance of Tenkan and Kijun.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12775

 

[riki143]

Gold gave bears free rein
3/8/2017

On the daily chart of gold, a breakout of the supports at $1,244 and $1,220 led to the activation of the "Shark" pattern. If the "bears" manage to hold the quotes below the $1,220 level it can lead to the implementation of the 88.6% target. The nearest support is located at $1,205 mark, the resistance - close to $1,230 mark.

On the hourly chart of gold, quotes continue to move within the downward trading channel. If the correction ends near $1,198 and $1,190 (78.6% and 88.6% Fibo retracement levels of the last upward wave), the bulls will manage to regain control over precious metals.

Recommendations:

BUY $1198 SL $1188 TP $1222,

BUY $1190 SL $1180 $TP1 $1212 TP2 $1222.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12776

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: bulls play by the rules
3/8/2017

On the USD/CHF daily chart, bulls maintain their control over the pair. This is confirmed by the movement of quotes within the upward trading channel. To regain control over the market, the bears need to return the prices below the level of 1.0045. In contrast, a breakout of the resistance at 1.016 will be a signal of the new attack of buyers.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the test of the important level of 1.016 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the last downward wave) can lead to the implementation of the 200% target in the AB = CD pattern. It is located near the 1.028 level.

Recommendation: BUY 1,016 SL 1,0105 TP 1,028.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12777

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for March 8
3/8/2017

Markets continue to plough the sand waiting for riskier events to occur later this week – the ECB meeting Thursday and the US employment report. Most analysts believe that the ECB meeting will be a non-event. Draghi bought some time for the QE extension. So, there won’t be significant changes in the ECB’s monetary policy stance despite the recent uplift in the inflation data (the ECB officials will probably say that the recent increase in the inflation rates is the effect from higher oil prices; the core inflation rate remains below 1%). EUR/USD slid to 1.0560 in the past session. It seems that subdued trading has dented the euro’s upsurge. The immediate support can be found at 1.0520.

The British pound ceded ground to the US dollar overnight haven fallen to 1.2200. Yesterday the UK government suffered its second defeat in the House of Lords, as the Lords voted for an amendment to the EU draft bill demanding a ‘meaningful vote’ on the final Brexit deal. Theresa May still set to trigger Article 50 before ‘end of March’ despite two consecutive defeats in the Parliament. The bill will be debated again in the House of Commons and it is unclear how it will impact on the timing of the legal Brexit. Today’s focus will be on the UK annual budget release coming at 2:30 pm MT time. Usually, it is not a market trigger as the most major items usually revealed beforehand.

USD/JPY declined to 113.75. In the early hours of today’s session, we got some Japanese economic data. GDP fell short of market’s expectations (the headline was +1.2% against expectations of +1.5%). Keep an eye on the ADP employment as it can provide a reasonable guide to the US NFP. The market is looking for a 198K print.

Aussie moved up to 0.7595 in the Asian session helped by unchanged RBA cash rate and a very dull statement. Iron ore prices have been supported by demand growth, helping the AUD rally.

Kiwi extended its losses to 0.6950 overnight as we got information on the dairy prices that started falling on supply growth. Global dairy production has increased in the past months, with larger production volumes coming from the US. In the early hours of the Asian session, NZD/USD went a little higher which seems fair as this week decline was over-extended.

USD/CAD edged down to 0.3405 in the Tokyo morning haven fallen from 1.3435 high. Loonie’s economic calendar for today is light, so the focus will be on the USD drivers.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12778

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, March 8th
3/8/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 75 367 ? + 316 248 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0613; 1.0644; 1.0666
Closest support levels 1.0566; 1.0540; 1.0504; 1.0483
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0566, with target points at 1.0540 and 1.0504
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0613 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0644 and 1.0666
GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 420 ? + 192 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2233; 1.2304; 1.2342; 1.2392
Closest support levels 1.2161; 1.2141; 1.2118; 1.2091
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2233, with the target points at 1.2304 and 1.2342
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2161 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2141 and 1.2118
USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 443 ? + 136 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3426; 1.3444; 1.3475; 1.3519
Closest support levels 1.3380; 1.3342; 1.3308; 1.3263
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3426, with the target points at 1.3444 and 1.3475
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3380 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3342 and 1.3308
More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12781

 

[riki143]

Prepping for the tomorrow’s ECB meeting
3/8/2017

The ECB meeting will be held tomorrow. The minimum bid rate will be announced at 2:45 pm MT time, the ECB press conference will start at 3:30 pm MT time.

Many analysts expect the ECB to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged despite the recent upsurge in the inflation rates. The bank’s officials will have to explain their reluctance to recourse to tightening measures. They will probably point out at the stubbornly low core inflation rates. Analysts from the BofA Merrill believe that there won’t be any signs of QE tapering. According to them, ECB President Mario Draghi bought time when he extended the bank’s bond purchasing program by a year at December 2016 meeting.

Nordea’s analysts agree that the ECB won’t be willing to change its current monetary policy stance at March meeting. But they warn the markets not to short aggressively, as there is chance for a hawkish tilt in the ECB’s announcement.

Unlike their Nordea’s colleagues, analysts from Danske bank foresee a quite dovish tone from the ECB’s senior officials highlighting the point about core inflation remaining too low.

Draghi’s dovish performance at the previous meeting represents a truce between the bank’s hawks and doves. The authors of the Bank of America preview say that even the well-known Hawk Weidmann in his recent public statement said that he is quite relaxed on inflation figures and that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate.

Also, we shouldn’t forget about the incoming French presidential and Dutch general elections, Italian banking crisis and Greece’s debt problems that might be taken into account by the ECB officials when they decide on setting their interest rate and choosing appropriate monetary tools for hitting their targets on the key Eurozone indicators (it is probably needless to say that all these factors won’t result in the EUR appreciation).

Any mention of the QE program ending or being tapered will provide additional stimulus for the euro. A rather dovish tone confirming the December’s schedule for the QE tapering will be a drag on the European currency.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12782

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Double Top" led to bearish rally
3/8/2017

There’s a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed, so the price reached a support at 1.2179. In this case, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.2120. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.2231 – 1.2277.

We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price is consolidating. Also, there’s a “Pennant” pattern, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2120. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to see the price higher. Therefore, we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.2231 – 1.2260 as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12783

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: Moving Averages waiting for bulls
3/8/2017

There’s a local correction, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Considering that there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, bears are likely going to continue falling down until any bullish model arrives.

We’ve got a bullish “Doji” on the lower “Window”. In this case, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction towards the 55 & 89 Moving Averages. If a pullback from these lines happens, bears will probably try to test the last low.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12785

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: consolidation going to move on
3/8/2017

We’ve got a “Hammer” and an “Inverted Hammer”, which both have been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for another decline in the direction of the 55 & 144 Moving Averages.

There’s a possible “Harami” pattern. If it confirms, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12786

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3380
3/8/2017

USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3380
Next buy target – 1.3590

USD/CAD continues to rise after the price earlier broke through the resistance level 1.3380, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level coincided with the breakout of the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the previous minor ABC correction 2 from December – which accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3.

USD/CAD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next strong resistance level 1.3590 (which stopped the previous impulse waves (iii) and 1, as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12787

 

[riki143]

falling inside minor impulse wave 3
3/8/2017

NZD/CHF falling inside minor impulse wave 3
Next sell target - 0.7010

NZD/CHF continues to fall sharply inside the minor impulse wave 3, which earlier broke through the support zone lying between the support level 0.7170 (which reversed the price sharply in February) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous intermediate upward wave (B) from the end of December. The breakout of the aforementioned support zone greatly accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3.

NZD/CHF is expected to fall to the next sell target at the powerful support level 0.7010 (which stopped the previous intermediate (A)-wave in December, as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12788

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the euro will slip off the precipice
3/9/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, the bulls for the third time tried to push the quotes above the 1.0635 level (23.6% of the last long-term downward wave), but their attempt has failed. This tells us about the weakness of buyers and increases the risks of the restoration of the bearish trend towards 88.6% and 113% targets in the Shark pattern.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the consolidation stage in the downward trend may come to an end in case of a successful test of the support at 1,0497. In such scenario, the AB = CD pattern with 200% target will be activated.

Recommendation: SELL 1,0495 SL 1,055 TP1 1,038 TP2 1,035 TP3 1,028.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12790

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: correction continues
3/9/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, a breakout of the support at 0.7512 (38.2% level of the last upward wave) increases the risks of development of the corrective movement towards 0.7445 and 0.7375. For this to happen, the bears need to keep quotes below the important level. If they fail to do so, it will lead to the consolidation in the range of 0.75-0.765.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, there is an implementation of the AB=CD pattern. Its 200% target is located at 0.7445. The nearest resistance levels can be found near 0.7545 and 0.7605. The rollbacks from them will create the prerequisites for opening short positions.

Recommendations:

SELL 0,7545 SL 0,76 TP 0,7445,

SELL 0,7605 SL 0,766 TP 0,7445.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12791

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for March 9
3/9/2017

According to ADP Research institute, there are 298K more people in the US who wake up in the morning, grab their cappuccinos, americanos, some nibbles and delicious snacks to accompany their caffeine fix in the nearby coffeehouses. ADP non-farm employment change posted its highest monthly gain since January 2006. Yes, indeed, ADP’s own payroll data is just a “whisper number” for the official NFP, and sometimes not very reliable one. But for markets, it was a broad hint at the Fed’s interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting. The US dollar was a total winner across the trading board right upon the announcement.

EUR/USD dropped to 1.0530 in the Asian session. Today’s focus will be on the ECB meeting, the backdrop to which is the sharp pick-up in the Eurozone inflation figures. The ECB President Mario Draghi was a bit dovish at the previous meeting saying that the buildup inflation headline will unlikely be sustained, that it is a mere reflection of the surging oil prices. Mario Draghi will unlikely announce the end of the ECB’s QE program later today despite the constant pressure from German officials pushing the bank to start winding back on its super-accommodative monetary policy. It seems that the euro may experience some fresh volatility out of the ECD today. Technically, EUR/USD currency pair moved in a consolidation phase; it may continue ranging within 1.0490/1.0590 levels.

Aussie slumped to 0.7510 on the broad strengthening of the greenback. The pace and the extent of the yesterday’s decline suggest that a further drop is not ruled out. From its current positions, AUD/USD may fall further towards 0.7468 (the upper border of the daily Ichimoku cloud).

Kiwi is also on the soft side extending its overnight losses to 0.6890 mark. From here it may slide further to 0.6860 (low of December 23, 2016). Stabilization will be possible if quotes move above 0.6960 level.

Being overwhelmed with the ECB meeting and press conference, keep an eye on the Canadian new housing price index and US jobless claims. USD/CAD rose to 1.3495 driven by the strong US dollar. This is mainly because Canadian domestic data has little impact on Loonie. Oil prices are not supportive to CAD these days. Brent oil futures dropped to $52.90 overnight after the data showed a substantial increase in the US stockpiles.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12792

 

[riki143]

Prepping for the ECB meeting
3/9/2017

Today is the day of the ECB meeting. The minimum bid rate will be announced at 2:45 pm MT time, the ECB press conference will start at 3:30 pm MT time.

Many analysts expect the ECB to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged despite the recent upsurge in the inflation rates. The bank’s officials will have to explain their reluctance to recourse to tightening measures. They will probably point out at the stubbornly low core inflation rates. Analysts from the BofA Merrill believe that there won’t be any signs of QE tapering. According to them, ECB President Mario Draghi bought time when he extended the bank’s bond purchasing program by a year at December 2016 meeting.

Nordea’s analysts agree that the ECB won’t be willing to change its current monetary policy stance at March meeting. But they warn the markets not to short aggressively, as there is chance for a hawkish tilt in the ECB’s announcement.

Unlike their Nordea’s colleagues, analysts from Danske bank foresee a quite dovish tone from the ECB’s senior officials highlighting the point about core inflation remaining too low.

Draghi’s dovish performance at the previous meeting represents a truce between the bank’s hawks and doves. The authors of the Bank of America preview say that even the well-known Hawk Weidmann in his recent public statement said that he is quite relaxed on inflation figures and that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate.

Also, we shouldn’t forget about the incoming French presidential and Dutch general elections, Italian banking crisis and Greece’s debt problems that might be taken into account by the ECB officials when they decide on setting their interest rate and choosing appropriate monetary tools for hitting their targets on the key Eurozone indicators (it is probably needless to say that all these factors won’t result in the EUR appreciation).

Any mention of the QE program ending or being tapered will provide additional stimulus for the euro. A rather dovish tone confirming the December’s schedule for the QE tapering will be a drag on the European currency.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12782

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to test the last low
3/9/2017

The price faced a support at 1.0520, but bears are likely going to test the next support at 1.0493 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction towards a resistance at 1.0578 – 1.0588.

Bears found a support at 1.0520, so the price is consolidating. Meanwhile, we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.0510 – 1.0493 as a possible intraday target. Considering a pullback from this area, there’s an opportunity to have an upward correction later on.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12793

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears can't stop
3/9/2017

The price achieved a support area at 1.2179 – 1.2048. However, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the next support at 1.2120 – 1.2106. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to deliver a correction.

We’ve got a “Pennant” pattern, so bears are likely going to test a support between the levels 1.2130 – 1.2106. If a pullback from this area be on the table, there’ll be an option to have a bullish correction. The main intraday bullish target is a resistance at 1.2198 – 1.2231.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12794

 

[riki143]

EUR/NZD and NZD/USD short-term outlook
3/9/2017

Fundamental outlook

NZD/USD broke an unquantifiable number of supports on its way and slumped below 0.6900. Kiwi remains under the substantial downward pressure for ten consecutive days on the surging US Treasury bond yields. Disappointing outcome of Tuesday’s dairy action aggravated the situation. The ultra-strong ADP release was a punch in the Kiwi’s stomach. The greenback has become unbeatable against other G10 as investors have now fully priced in an interest rate hike in March. There is only one economic release that is left on the docket – the US NFP data that should dot all the i's and cross all the t's.

Technical outlook

Technically, the NZD/USD is sliding closer to 2017 lows support near 0.6885. A slide below this level will open the room for a further downfall towards 0,6860, 0.6783 (61.8% Fibo level from January 20 low). On the upside, a close near the resistance at 50% Fibo retracement level (0.6920) may push the pair higher towards the strong hurdles at 0.6980 (the lower border of Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe) and 0.7050 (38.2% Fibo retracement level).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12796

 

[riki143]

Treacherous bull traps
3/9/2017

A bull trap is a real pain in the neck as it causes substantial financial losses leaving the market participants penniless. The bull traps occur when prices start heading upwards, but then, out of nowhere, reverse and decline. This counter price move produces a trap and often leads to substantial sell-offs. You may face with such traps in a major resistance zone.

So, let us straighten out, how to predict the occurrence such traps; how to recognize them at the earliest stage of their formation. Here is how. Imagine, there is an uptrend; then, you notice the price running into resistance level and breaking it; it doesn’t stop there and continues to move higher. Then, a few candlesticks later, the rally phases out, and prices start falling. Those market participants who had open long positions (the bulls) as they notice a breakout of the resistance now feeling nervous as their stop losses are getting hit. So, they got trapped.

Common bull trap chart pattern
A bull candlestick breaks and closes above the resistance level, but the next 2 bars are bearish. The second candlestick in the pattern resembles a bearish pin bar type of candlestick.

Another version of bull trap chart pattern
A bull trap candlestick breaks the resistance and goes higher, but then closes below the resistance level forming a bearish candlestick.

Finding bull trap chart patterns as well as key resistance zones can be really difficult, especially for novice traders. Sometimes you can be deceived by the market. When you think that you found a bull trap, it will eventually turn out to be a true breakout to the upside. So, to find a strong resistance level you should switch to the weekly or the daily timeframes (any higher timeframes) and look at the charts. Is there a peak that actually stands out from the trading channel? If there is a peak, this is your resistance level (don't be too lazy to do this to confirm your resistance levels).

Trading strategy
Now when you learned how to find the bull traps, we would like to suggest you several trading strategies
"Key ingredients"
Currency pairs – any
Timeframes – hourly charts are preferable, but you may use daily, H4 as well.
Background – learn to recognize bearish reversal candlesticks, trading experience of trading on multiple timeframes
Technical tools – not required

"Rules of the game"
1. When you see the price advancing to the resistance level, you should wait and see what happens when it reaches it;
2. After the price reached the resistance zone, and the formation of the bull trap chart pattern has started you may place a sell stop pending order at least 2 pips below the low of the candle that broke the resistance zone;
3. Then, place a stop loss at least 2 pips above the high of this candlestick;
4. Take profit should be placed at the previous swing low price level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12799

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, March 9th
3/9/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 6 355 ? + 69 253 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0623; 1.0647; 1.0679; 1.0701
Closest support levels 1.0550; 1.0525; 1.0510; 1.0492
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0550, with target points at 1.0525 and 1.0510
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0623 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0647 and 1.0679
USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest - 32 ? + 115 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3528; 1.3561; 1.3607
Closest support levels 1.3493; 1.3466; 1.3437; 1.3383; 1.3339
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3493, with the target points at 1.3466 and 1.3437
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3528 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3561 and 1.3607
More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12800