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[Volkov Yuriy]

Indices that refuse to give in​

The long-term growth of major stock indices #SP500, #NQ100, #NIKKEI, #DAX30, #FTSE100, and #ESTX50 is supported by the development of leading companies, rising corporate profits, and technological trends such as artificial intelligence and digitalization, as well as a steady inflow of capital from institutional investors. Additional support comes from the diversified structure of these indices, regular rebalancing of their components, the recovery of the global economy after crises, and expectations of more accommodative monetary policy during periods of slowing inflation.

Stock indices once again confirm their status as one of the most resilient instruments for a long-term approach. Unlike individual stocks, an index reflects the performance of a group of leading companies. This reduces dependence on any single corporate story and allows investors to follow the growth of an entire market or sector.
Long-term growth drivers of indices:

• #SP500 — further growth may be supported by the resilience of the U.S. economy, strong corporate earnings, high diversification, and the continued expansion of major technology companies.
• #NQ100 — key growth drivers are linked to artificial intelligence, cloud technologies, semiconductors, business digitalization, and the high margins of the tech sector.
• #NIKKEI — the index may benefit from corporate reforms in Japan, increased interest from foreign investors, a weaker yen, and the strong positions of Japanese export-oriented companies.
• #DAX30 — growth may be driven by the industrial sector, export-focused companies, the defense industry, and a recovery in business activity in Germany.
• #FTSE100 — the index may gain from strong positions in energy, commodities, banking, and dividend-paying companies with global exposure.
• #ESTX50 — further support may come from leading eurozone companies, economic recovery in Europe, the banking sector, and expectations of more accommodative monetary policy.

Analysts at FreshForex believe that #SP500, #NQ100, #NIKKEI, #DAX30, #FTSE100, and #ESTX50 maintain long-term potential not because of short-term market spikes, but due to more fundamental factors: growth in corporate earnings, technological advancement, recovery in business activity, and sustained investor interest in the world’s leading companies. As long as these drivers remain in place, major stock indices may continue their upward movement despite periodic corrections and external risks. For long-term markets, the key factor is not short-term volatility, but the ability of companies to remain profitable and adapt to new economic conditions.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 15, 2026 EURUSD​

EURUSD:

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The euro is supported by the ECB’s decision to raise interest rates and revise its inflation forecasts higher. For EUR/USD, the key factor is not only the rate move itself, but also the signal that the central bank is ready to contain the pass-through of the energy shock into prices. At the same time, the eurozone growth forecast was lowered, so demand for the euro remains cautious. The region’s economy is sensitive to energy costs and weak business activity.

The US dollar is losing ground after reports of a framework agreement between the US and Iran and a decline in oil prices. For the market, this reduces concerns over a new wave of energy-driven inflation and makes expectations for the Federal Reserve less one-sided. The US central bank is likely to keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. However, if pressure from oil prices eases, demand for the US dollar as a defensive asset may decline.

As a result, EUR/USD has room to recover, although the pair’s upside is limited by weak eurozone prospects. A scenario in which the euro remains supported by the ECB while the US dollar loses part of its caution premium looks more sustainable. If the current fundamental backdrop remains in place, the buying idea is consistent with a moderate shift in sentiment in favor of EUR/USD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1600, SL 1.1570, TP 1.1690

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for June 16, 2026 #NQ100​

#NQ100: BUY 30037.5–30315.0, TP1 30592.5, TP2 31574.5.​

Long-term trend: upward. The largest volume cluster of the current contract is located in the 30440.0–30600.0 range. At the moment, trading activity in #NQ100 is taking place inside this range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

Medium-term trend: upward. The largest volume cluster of the medium-term trend is located in the 30370.0–30460.0 range. At the moment, trading activity in #NQ100 is taking place above this range, which points to buyers’ strength.

The favorable price range for buying, based on margin requirements, is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the high of 15.06.2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 30315.0.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 30037.5.

Intraday targets: renewal of the highs from 15.06.2026 at 30592.5.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 31574.5.

Trading idea: buying from the favorable price range if a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 30037.5–30315.0, Take Profit 1 30592.5, Take Profit 2 31574.5.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 17, 2026 EURUSD​

Events to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

EURUSD:

​

The euro is receiving moderate support from a combination of two factors: the US dollar is losing some demand ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, while the ECB remains ready to respond to inflation risks. Even after the decline in oil prices, the energy factor has not fully disappeared for the euro area. As a result, the market is cautiously assessing the likelihood of further steps by the central bank. For EUR/USD, this creates a more stable foundation than at the beginning of the week.

At the same time, the euro’s rise does not look one-sided. The euro area economy remains sensitive to energy costs, while business activity may come under pressure if companies pass higher costs on to consumers more slowly than the market expects. However, the latest ECB signals show that inflation remains the key reference point. This limits the room for a rapid softening of expectations around the euro.

The dollar is being held back by uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Market participants are waiting not only for the rate decision, but also for guidance on the future policy path. If the central bank maintains a cautious tone without strengthening expectations of a rate increase, demand for the dollar may remain limited. In this scenario, EUR/USD retains fundamental grounds for further gains.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1610, SL 1.1580, TP 1.1700

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[Volkov Yuriy]

The market is punishing weak altcoins!​

Over the past three months, BCHAUD, LRCUSD, ADAUSD, SANUSD, and XTZUSD have been among the weakest cryptocurrencies in their group. Their decline is driven not by a single factor, but by a combination of market fear, declining interest in older altcoins, and specific issues within the projects themselves. Even positive news such as network upgrades or new product launches has so far failed to restore investor confidence.

Decline factors:

• BCHAUD: the upgrade failed to trigger a recovery. The network received a major technical upgrade, but the market reacted calmly: amid the broader crypto downturn, BCH continued to lose ground.
• LRCUSD: delisting hit investor confidence. The removal of LRC from major exchanges significantly reduced its accessibility and increased concerns about the project’s future.
• ADAUSD: internal signals alarmed the market. ADA’s decline accelerated following news of ecosystem issues, the cancellation of a major event, and doubts about the sustainability of certain projects.
• SANUSD: interest in the metaverse remains weak. Even the launch of a new AI tool failed to shift sentiment, as investors still do not see a quick return in demand for gaming and metaverse tokens.
• XTZUSD: a roadmap exists, but the market is waiting for results. XTZ is preparing important updates, yet its price continues to suffer from weak interest in altcoins and a lack of strong inflow from new buyers.

BCHAUD, LRCUSD, ADAUSD, SANUSD, and XTZUSD may remain under downward pressure if the overall crypto market stays weak. For these coins, simply announcing updates is no longer enough—investors want to see real growth in users, trading volumes, and trust.

Until that happens, any rebounds may remain short-lived. Projects facing liquidity issues, delistings, internal conflicts, or weak demand for their core concept appear especially vulnerable.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Analysis of margin levels for June 18, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 4271.79-4326.29, TP1-4217.79, TP2-4056.69.​

Long-term trend: short. The largest volume cluster of the current contract is located in the 4320.00–4360.00 range. At the moment, trading activity in XAUUSD is taking place below this range, which indicates seller strength.

Medium-term trend: short. The largest volume cluster of the medium-term trend is located in the 4335.00–4353.00 range. At the moment, trading activity in XAUUSD is taking place below this range, which indicates seller strength.

The favourable selling area from a margin perspective is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the low of 17.06.2026.

The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4271.79.

The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4326.29.

Intraday targets: a renewal of the lows from 17.06.2026 at 4217.79.

Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 4056.69.

Trading idea: sell from the favourable price range if a reversal pattern forms.

Sell: 4271.79-4326.29, Take Profit 1-4217.79, Take Profit 2-4056.69.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 19, 2026 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:

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The Bank of England’s decision to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% mattered more for sterling than the level itself. The Monetary Policy Committee remained divided, but the majority chose to wait for greater clarity on how fluctuations in energy prices may affect inflation and growth. This underlines that the central bank is not yet prepared to tighten policy further, despite persistent price risks.

Consumer demand and government borrowing data are becoming increasingly important for sterling. Weak household activity would complicate the Bank of England’s task: a rate increase would place greater strain on the economy, while keeping rates unchanged would leave inflation risks unresolved. This uncertainty limits sterling’s ability to attract independent support, especially amid cautious assessments of the UK’s fiscal resilience.

The US dollar, by contrast, is supported by revised expectations for Federal Reserve policy and higher short-term US Treasury yields. The contrast in expectations for the two economies has become clearer. As long as markets price in tighter conditions in the United States and await confirmation of resilient domestic demand in the United Kingdom, the baseline scenario continues to favour the US dollar in GBP/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3200, SL 1.3230, TP 1.3110

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Metals Are Falling, but Copper Holds Strong​

Most metals have been under pressure in recent weeks. XAUUSD, XAGUSD, XPTUSD, and XPDUSD are declining amid a strong U.S. dollar, expectations of prolonged high interest rates in the United States, and cautious investor sentiment toward non-yielding assets. However, CUCUSD stands out from the broader trend: copper maintains stronger medium-term performance and remains one of the few metals that has shown notable growth since autumn 2025.

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Key drivers behind metal price movements:

• XAUUSD — dollar strength and high rates. Gold tends to lose support when the dollar strengthens, as it becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Additional pressure comes from expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy, since higher yields on dollar-denominated assets reduce the appeal of gold.
• XAGUSD — decline in Indian imports. Silver has come under pressure following reduced purchases from India, one of the world’s largest consumers. Import restrictions and higher duties have weakened external demand, creating a negative signal for the market.
• XPTUSD — profit-taking after a price rally. After a period of rising prices, some investors have started closing positions and reallocating capital into less volatile instruments. While the fundamental deficit in platinum remains, it has not fully offset short-term selling pressure.
• XPDUSD — weak long-term demand from the auto industry. Palladium is widely used in gasoline-powered vehicles, but it is largely unnecessary for electric vehicles. As the EV market expands, the long-term demand outlook from the automotive sector continues to weaken.
• CUCUSD — copper moves against the trend. Unlike gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, copper appears stronger due to demand from energy infrastructure, electrification, grid expansion, data centers, and AI-related industries. This creates a clear contrast in the market: while some metals decline due to dollar strength, interest rates, and weak demand, CUCUSD is supported by long-term industrial factors.

Palladium remains the most vulnerable, as growing EV adoption gradually reduces demand from the automotive sector. Gold and silver may also stay under pressure as long as the dollar remains strong and markets expect high U.S. interest rates.

Copper, on the other hand, stands out as an exception within the sector. Its growth since autumn 2025 reflects continued investor expectations of strong future demand tied to energy, infrastructure, and technology development. Therefore, when assessing metals, it is important to distinguish between assets pressured by monetary policy and those supported by structural industrial demand.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 22, 2026 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY remains near 161.5, with the response of Japanese authorities becoming increasingly important. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that the authorities are ready to respond to currency movements at any time if necessary. The exchange rate has approached the 2024 high of 161.96; a move above that level would leave the yen at its weakest point since 1986. As a result, official comments have a meaningful impact on market expectations for the pair.

The US dollar’s interest rate advantage remains in place. The Federal Reserve left its rate range at 3.50%–3.75%, citing a resilient economy and elevated inflation, while two-year US Treasury yields rose to their highest level since early 2025. The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate to around 1.0% on June 16 and signalled that further policy normalisation remains possible, although the gap with US rates is still substantial.

The risk profile for USD/JPY has become asymmetric: the macroeconomic backdrop supports the US dollar, but the probability of an official response from Japan rises as the pair approaches sensitive levels. Even without direct action from the authorities, growing expectations of intervention may quickly support the yen. Therefore, the more cautious base case suggests a decline in the pair if the current news environment persists.

Trading idea: SELL 161.55, SL 161.85, TP 160.65

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