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[Volkov Yuriy]

THRILL RIDE: BITCOIN'S EXTRAORDINARY FALL

Bitcoin's extraordinary fallBitcoin hit a new two-month low on Friday, breaking out of its recent narrow range amid a wave of negative sentiment sweeping global markets.

Bitcoin fell 7.2% last Thursday, the biggest one-day drop since November 2022, when the leading FTX exchange collapsed.

It then fell to a two-month low of $26,172 in Asian trading on Friday, the lowest since 16 June.

A wave of sell-offs gripped global markets, with major Wall Street indexes closing lower on Thursday and Asian stocks starting a third week of losses due to concerns about the health of China's economy and fears that US interest rates will rise longer given the economy's resilience.

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, remained steady at $1,685.20, also falling sharply on Thursday.

Some analysts attributed the cryptocurrencies' fall to a Wall Street Journal report that Elon Musk's SpaceX sold its bitcoin holdings, writing down their value by $373 million. Musk is influential among crypto-enthusiasts, and bitcoin prices have previously fluctuated in response to his tweets.

Bitcoin has held near the $30,000 mark in recent months, gradually recovering this year after a sharp drop in 2022 when various cryptocurrency companies collapsed, leaving investors with heavy losses.

Cryptocurrency markets got a boost in June as BlackRock applied to launch a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US. Some investors took the move as a sign that the US Securities and Exchange Commission would approve applications to launch a spot bitcoin ETF from various asset managers, including Grayscale.

THE SUSPENSE OVER JACKSON HOLE

Dear clients,

A sharp rise in US Treasury yields is sending shivers through risky areas of the market, leaving investors wondering how bad the damage will be to a rally that has lifted everything from equities to bitcoin this year.

Strong economic growth has fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates for longer, pushing Treasury yields this month to their highest level since 2007. The rise has made it harder for holders of stocks and other speculative assets to ignore their gains, which have continued for most of the year even as yields have steadily risen.

The S&P 500 index lost 4% this month as the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to a more than 15-year high of 4.35% on Monday. At the same time, the S&P 500 technology sector fell 5.7%, bitcoin fell more than 10%, and the ARK Innovation ETF, a bastion of many high-growth companies, fell 18.5%. Stocks generally rose on Monday, with the S&P 500 index up 0.7% for the day.

Rising Treasury yields, which change inversely with Treasury bond prices, can take the gloss off speculative assets by offering investors attractive payouts on investments that are considered essentially risk-free because they are backed by the U.S. government. Rising rates also raise the cost of capital in the economy, making it harder for everyone from individuals to companies to service debt.

The most important test for markets will be the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole. On Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a speech on the economic outlook.

According to the latest weekly Refinitiv Lipper data, US investors were net sellers of equity funds for the third consecutive week in the seven days to 16 August. At the same time, they were attracted by strong returns in money market funds, which attracted about $32.5bn in the past week, the largest inflows since 5 July.

Investor positioning in the equity market fell for a fourth straight week to a two-month low, according to Deutsche Bank data.

However, bets against equities have been losing ground this year. Many investors believe equities will hold strong this year, which has seen them rebound from widespread fears of recession and turmoil in the banking sector. The S&P 500 index has gained 14.6% over the past year. Goldman Sachs strategists said Monday that the volume of stocks held by retail and institutional investors is below historical norms, suggesting the bull market may have additional fuel left if the economy remains strong.

EXPLORING THE NEW NATIONAL CURRENCIES

Dear clients,

More choices never hurt and just recently FreshForex introduced new Asian and African options. This time, we'll be checking out new national currencies.

Join us on August 23 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

UNARTIFICIAL VALUATION: NVIDIA'S QUARTERLY REPORT

Dear clients,

Nvidia's strong quarterly earnings forecast met Wall Street's high expectations on Wednesday, sending a host of artificial intelligence-related stocks soaring and adding momentum to the stalled recovery of the U.S. stock market.

Following the signal, Nvidia shares jumped nearly 10% to a record high of $516, boosting the company's market value by about $110bn to $1.27 trillion and cementing its lead as the world's most expensive chip maker.

That came after the company posted a fiscal third-quarter earnings forecast that exceeded analysts' expectations, helped by growing demand for its high-end chips that power much of the world's major artificial intelligence technology.

Nvidia's additional $25 billion share buyback announced on Wednesday came amid a stock that has already tripled this year, making it the first trillion-dollar chip business in history, as investors bet Nvidia will be a key beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom.

Everyone from AI startups to major cloud service providers such as Microsoft are keen to get their hands on more Nvidia chips. Demand from China is also on the rise, as companies there place rush orders to stock up on chips before further restrictions on U.S. exports take effect.

S&P 500 E-Mini futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq E-Mini futures climbed 0.9%, suggesting Wall Street is likely to open higher on Thursday. Investors had been awaiting Nvidia's earnings report this week as a potential spark for renewed gains in the sluggish U.S. stock market.

Nvidia shares have more than tripled this year as the chipmaker is at the centre of a rally in technology stocks fuelled by optimism about the potential of artificial intelligence. Nvidia's forecast added to investor optimism. Following the report's release, the value of shares in big tech companies related to artificial intelligence increased by more than $70bn, in addition to the value of Nvidia's stock.

Nvidia expects third-quarter revenue to be around $16bn, plus or minus 2%. Analysts polled by Refinitiv on average expected $12.61bn.

FOOT OFF THE PEDAL. THE ECB AND THE COMING RATES

Dear clients,

According to eight sources with direct knowledge of the discussions, European Central Bank policymakers are increasingly concerned about the deteriorating growth prospects for the economy and, while the discussion remains open, the idea of holding off on rate hikes is gaining momentum.

The ECB has raised rates at each of its last nine meetings in a bid to rein in price growth, most recently on July 27 when it left open the choice of its next meeting in September, with policymakers divided between a pause and further tightening.

Talks with eight policymakers in Europe and on the sidelines of the US Federal Reserve's symposium in Jackson Hole suggest proponents of a "pause" are growing stronger after key economic indicators over the past six weeks have come in below expectations, suggesting a recession has become likely.

Several sources said the odds were evenly split between a rate hike and a pause, while some said a pause was more likely. But none of the sources said they thought a rate hike was the most likely outcome, even if that was their preference.

That's markedly different from six weeks ago, when a rate hike in September was still considered the most likely outcome. However, all sources agreed that even in the event of a pause, the ECB would have to make it clear that its work is not yet done and that further policy tightening may be needed.

They said it could take several months, possibly until early 2024, to be sure that eurozone inflation, now at 5.3%, is moving towards the 2% target.

The sources also agreed that the discussion remains open and nothing will be decided until the next inflation figure on August 31 and the ECB's new economic forecasts. The next ECB meeting will be held on September 14.

Markets are currently split between the chances of a rate hike in September and a pause, but expect the ECB to still go for a final rate hike of 25 basis points to 4% at some point later this year.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

IN THE PURSUIT OF PROFIT. MARATHON OF VOLATILE INSTRUMENTS

Dear clients,

The market is frozen waiting for a new push, but is it a reason for us to slow down?

We are launching the volatility marathon; during the week you will be presented with a selection of the most profitable instruments that have already proved themselves in trading.

Signals will be published from 7:30 GMT on our social networks and Telegram channel.

Forwards to success!

"UNTIL THE JOB IS DONE." JEROME POWELL'S SPEECH IN JACKSON HOLE

Dear clients,

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates once again to bring down still too high inflation and promised caution at upcoming meetings, noting both the progress made in easing price pressures and the risks posed by the unexpected strength of the U.S. economy.

While Powell's statements weren't as hawkish as a year ago at the annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, they were still quite sharp, and investors now see another rate hike before the end of the year as more likely.

"We will proceed cautiously in deciding whether to tighten policy further or, conversely, to keep the rate unchanged and await further data," Powell said in his keynote speech. "The Fed's objective is to bring inflation down to its 2% target, and we will do so."

The Fed has raised rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022, and inflation at the Fed's preferred rate has fallen to 3.3% from a peak of 7% last summer. While the decline was a "welcome development," Powell believes inflation "remains too high."

"We are prepared to raise rates further, if appropriate, and intend to keep policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving steadily downward toward our target," he said.

However, given "signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected," including "particularly strong" consumer spending and a "possible recovery" in the housing sector, Powell said that above-trend growth "could jeopardise further progress on inflation and warrant further monetary tightening."

His speech showed the Fed struggling with conflicting signals from the economy, with inflation reportedly slowing strongly without much cost to the economy — a good outcome, but one that raised the possibility that Fed policy is not tight enough to finish the job.

Unlike last year's closely watched speech at a conference organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City — in which Powell warned in stark terms of impending policy tightening — Powell did not talk about the coming "pain" for the public caused by further policy tightening.

But he also didn't make it clear that a rate cut was imminent, nor did he hint, as some policymakers have done, at the need to adjust rates downward once inflation becomes more sustainable.

At the end of the day, futures contracts tied to the Fed's discount rate estimated the probability of a rate hike in September at just under 20%, but the odds of the rate ending the year in the 5.5%-5.75% range, a quarter point above the current range, were higher than the 50% probability. The yield on two-year Treasuries ended the day at 5.08%, the highest since June 2007.

Powell said it is difficult to accurately gauge how high above the "neutral" interest rate the current base rate is, and therefore difficult to gauge how much the Fed is restraining growth and inflation.

Powell reiterated what has become the Fed's standard diagnosis of inflation progress: easing goods inflation and declining housing inflation are "on track," but concerns that continued consumer spending on a wide range of services and a tight labour market may make a return to 2% difficult.

Recent declines in measures of core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, "are welcomed, but two months of good data is just the beginning of what will be needed to build confidence in a sustained decline in inflation," Powell emphasised.

Although Powell's tone was not as harsh as last year, when he dispelled market perceptions in very blunt terms that the Fed at the time was nearing the end of its rate hike cycle and would cut rates before the end of this year. Nevertheless, it was clear that he did not want to discard any options.

Powell ended his remarks Friday with almost the same phrase he used last year in Jackson Hole: "We're going to keep at it until the job is done."

"ATTENDRE ET ESPÉRER". CHINESE STOCKS RALLY

Dear clients,

Chinese stocks led the rally in Asian equities on Tuesday as investors welcomed Beijing's efforts to support markets, while bonds rose and the dollar declined amid possible softening in U.S. data.

MSCI, the broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares besides Japan, rose 1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up more than 2% and mainland China's blue chips (.CSI300) were up 1.5%.

In recent days, China has halved stamp duty on share trading, relaxed margin lending rules, slowed new listings and approved new retail funds, at least signalling a determination to stabilise the market.

And while foreign investors sold their shares on Monday on an initial bounce after the measures were announced over the weekend, they net bought about $500 million worth of Chinese stocks on Tuesday, perhaps in the hope that more substantial relief would follow.

"We doubt that these policies alone can change confidence or determine the direction of the market," Bank of America analysts said.

"Financial markets are merely a reflection of the underlying economy, and we need policies that can address the underlying economic fundamentals .... In our view, the next 2-3 weeks are still an important window for policy action."

Shares in Hong Kong were led by shares in China's struggling Country Garden and electric car maker BYD, which reported a threefold increase in first-half profit.

TIME TO COUNT THE CHICKEN. NON-FARM PAYROLL REPORT

Dear clients,

Nonfarm Payrolls report is the indicator that shows the change in the number of employed in the US non-farm sector. This time we'll be looking at the report, how it reflects on the market and the way to trade on it.

Join us on August 30 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them on our site.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

FRESHFOREX BIRTHDAY CHALLENGE — SWEET 19!

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"THE END OF AN ERA."

Dear clients,

The US bond market is marking the occasion: the era of low interest rates and inflation that began with the 2008 financial crisis is over. What will follow is still unclear.

That market view has become clearer in recent days amid a surge in 10-year Treasury yields to a 16-year high.

According to investors and the New York Fed's regularly updated yield-based model, the betting behind the move is that the disinflationary processes that the Federal Reserve has fought with easy-money policies since the financial crisis have tapered off.

Instead, investors believe investors have concluded that the U.S. economy is probably now in what one regional Fed chairman described as a "high-pressure equilibrium" characterised by inflation above the Fed's 2% target, low unemployment and positive growth.

This important shift in the outlook for rates has profound implications for policymakers, businesses, and the public. The shift to higher and more protracted rates could be painful and manifest itself in failed business models, unaffordable homes and cars. It could also force the Fed to keep raising rates until another failure occurs, as the three regional US banks did in March.

The Fed's market model for decomposing the 10-year Treasury yield into its components provides additional insight into investors' thinking.

In recent days, one component of yields — a measure of the reward investors demand for lending money for the long term — turned positive for the first time since June 2021, according to the ACM model.

The rise in the short-term rate also reflects confidence that structural shifts - from de-globalisation to declining productivity and an aging population - have raised the elusive theoretical interest rate at which growth neither accelerates nor slows and full employment exists at stable prices. It is called the neutral rate, or r-star.

While the market seems confident that the era of zero interest rates is over, it is much less confident about the real prospects for the economy.

The neutral rate, for example, determines whether the Fed Funds rate will slow or stimulate the economy, but no one really knows what the rate is really like until something breaks. Estimates vary widely.

The era of uncertainty has also arrived among monetary policymakers. A San Francisco Fed survey in August, which developed an index to gauge the level of disagreement among policymakers about their economic forecasts, showed that by June it had risen to a level higher than the pre-pandemic average.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

THE OTHER TIP OF THE SCALES. GOLDMAN SACHS ON TECH STOCKS

Dear clients,

According to Goldman Sachs strategists, strong earnings results to be released soon could reverse the decline in technology and growth stocks, which have been hurt by rising Treasury yields and, according to one report, are trading at their lowest levels in six years.

The so-called "Magnificent Seven" — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta Platforms — have fallen 7% over the past couple of months, compared with a 3% decline for the S&P 500 index as a whole, as Treasury yields jumped more than 60 basis points to 16-year highs.

Those declines have caused forward price-to-earnings ratios for companies to fall 20% over the past two months, leaving them trading at the largest discount to the market based on long-term growth since January 2017, Goldman Sachs said in a note on 1 October. At the same time, group sales growth is expected to be 11% in the third quarter, compared with 1% for the S&P 500 index, the company said.

Goldman strategists said the "megacaps" have collectively beaten consensus forecasts for sales growth 81% of the time and exceeded earnings expectations in two-thirds of the seasons since the fourth quarter of 2016.

"The divergence between lowering estimates and improving fundamentals presents new opportunities for investors," they wrote.

The S&P 500 index has fallen nearly 5% over the past 10 trading days, but is up just over 11% since the start of the year.

MARKET JUSTICE

Dear clients,

Growing fears among bond investors about US government spending and the ballooning budget deficit are fuelling a sharp sell-off that has seen Treasury bond prices fall to 17-year lows.

So-called "bond vigilantes" — investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds and driving up yields — were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns about US federal spending drove Treasury bond yields as high as 8%.

The expectation of a sharp increase in the US government budget deficit and the issuance of debt to cover those costs alarmed investors and brought the term back into Wall Street's everyday lexicon.

Fitch Ratings recently downgraded the country's credit rating, predicting that the US budget deficit will rise to 6.3% of gross domestic product this year from 3.7% in 2022 due to higher debt service costs, new spending initiatives and lower federal revenues.

While the Fed's hawkish interest rate outlook has been a major catalyst for yields and price impact, market participants attribute part of the decline in longer maturity bond yields to investor concerns about rising costs.

Yields on 30-year US Treasuries, which change inversely with prices, jumped to 5% on Wednesday for the first time since 2007 in a broad global bond sell-off before stabilising. Budget concerns have been mounting since the summer, when the Treasury announced plans to increase debt issuance.

Strategist Ed Yardeni, who introduced bond vigilantes in the early 1980s, has commented:

"Bond vigilantes are defying (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen's policy by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to trigger a debt crisis," he wrote in a Financial Times article Wednesday. "In this scenario, rising yields crowd out the private sector and trigger a credit crunch and recession."

Determined investors in the UK bonds last year helped bring about a policy reversal after a tax cut plan caused borrowing costs to soar, showing that bond vigilantes are still a force to be reckoned with.

However, not all investors believe that the "vigilantes" will be able to influence the $25 trillion Treasury market.

Experts believe the key driver of the sell-off is rate fears, not the supply of Treasuries. They believe some fund managers are waiting for yields to peak before acting. The recent sell-off has brought yields back to pre-financial crisis norms, which has increased the attractiveness of bonds in general and boosted investor returns.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

TRADING SIGNALS: NFP FOR SEPTEMBER

Dear clients,

On October 6, we are expecting the publication of data on Nonfarm Payroll, a measure of U.S. manufacturing employment. The report significantly affects the movement of the US dollar and related instruments.

What indicators are expected this time, let's find out from our expert:

ISM's leading employment indicators point to the release of positive Non-Farm Employment data, which is favourable for the US dollar growth, as in this case the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates at its November 1 meeting. On Friday consider selling GBPUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD, #NQ100.

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THE INTERLUDE

Dear clients,

The lull in bond sales lasted until Friday, but is unlikely to persist until the end of the day as investors await US employment data, which could bolster the case for keeping interest rates high for some time.

Oil's transition from a sharp rise to a fall also provided a respite, with Brent crude futures at $84.50 a barrel, about $13, or 13.5%, cheaper than last week's 11-month high.

MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares rose 0.9%. Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) index was unchanged and currency markets were flat, although the dollar began a record 12th week of gains due to the bond slump.

The ten-year US Treasury yield held mercifully at 4.72% during the Asian session, but it climbed 55 basis points in the course of the five-week sell-off, weighing on bond markets and risk appetite globally.

However, no one was betting big until the release of US non-farm payrolls data at 12:30 GMT.

Another batch of bond sell-offs is likely to see the dollar continue its week-long winning streak, which is already the longest in history against the euro. The dollar index has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, repeating a streak that lasted from July to October 2014.

The rise has taken the euro at $1.0542 near an 11-month low and sterling near a seven-month trough. The dollar index was unchanged at 106.4 on Friday.

Surprisingly, only the beleaguered yen showed significant struggle as a sudden surge in the Japanese currency in London on Tuesday afternoon sparked speculation of government intervention.

Japanese money market data did not reveal any anomalies that could accompany intervention. However, the movement was notable enough to make traders wary.

The yen exchange rate was last seen remaining stable at 148.5 per dollar. Gold also remained steady at $1,822 an ounce after nine days of losses caused by rising global bond yields.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

SHIFTING INTERESTS: HOW CHANGING RATES AFFECT THE CURRENCY MARKET

Dear clients,

Interest rates are one of the biggest driver of price across the markets, with currency being no exception. This time, we'll continue the talk on fluctuations in interest rates.

Join us on October 11 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

BUSINESS AS USUAL

Dear clients,

While markets have largely regained their composure following events in the Middle East, some dovish remarks from US Federal Reserve officials helped calm investors' nerves ahead of Tuesday's trading session.

On Monday, senior Fed officials suggested that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds could replace official monetary policy moves in terms of market impact, reinforcing expectations that the U.S. central bank may not need to raise rates further.

European stocks came under pressure on Monday amid news of conflict in the Middle East, but eurozone blue-chip futures STOXX 50 were back on the upside in Asia in the morning.

At the same time, 10-year US Treasuries posted their sharpest rise in more than a month at the opening of trading in Tokyo on Tuesday, fuelled by the Fed's "soft" remarks and demand for safe-haven assets.

The market will have more than enough to hear the views of Fed officials, who will take part in various events on Tuesday, and on Wednesday the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting will be released. All attention will then turn to Thursday's US consumer price index data.

At the same time, the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank will start in Morocco, where the world's leading politicians will speak.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak at Tuesday's meeting after economic data the previous day heightened fears of a possible recession in Germany, the eurozone's largest economy.

In Asia, more bad news came from China, with Country Garden, the largest private property developer, saying it will not be able to meet all of its offshore payment obligations on time or within the relevant grace periods.

AN ALL-FOR-ONE. OPEC+ REPRESENANTIVES' MEETING

Dear clients,

Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates have reaffirmed their commitment to "collective and individual voluntary adjustments" to oil production, Saudi Arabia's state news agency reported on Sunday.

The six countries' oil ministers met in Riyadh on Sunday on the sidelines of the UN's MENA climate week.

"In addition, the ministers reaffirmed the willingness of the countries participating in the Declaration of Co-operation to take additional measures at any time as part of their ongoing efforts to support market stability, building on the strong cohesion of OPEC+," Saudi state news agency SPA said in a report.

OPEC+ agreed in June to extend voluntary oil production cuts, first introduced in April, until the end of 2024. Additional voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia have been extended until the end of 2023 and are subject to monthly reviews.

Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ministers on Wednesday made no changes to the group's oil production policy after Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed they would maintain voluntary supply cuts to support the market.

TRADE OIL WITH IMPROVED SWAPS AND GET YOUR 100 BARRELS!

Dear clients,

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3. The prize fund - 100 barrels of Brent oil will be distributed among 5 randomly selected winners, each of whom will receive 20 barrels in dollar equivalent (at the Bid quote of the #BRENT instrument at the close of October 31);

4. The results of the draw will be published on November 1 in the company news;

5. The prizes will be credited within 5 working days after the results are announced in the "Balance" column, respectively fully available for trading and withdrawal.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

TRIAL BY INFLATION

Dear clients,

Barely have the markets began to get used to the idea of a dovish stance from the Fed, as the unpleasant data on US producer inflation threatens to rain on parade, making for a nervous wait of the consumer price data to be released later today.

For now, the unchanged and — for equity investors — very welcome statement from Fed officials that caution should be exercised before further rate hikes drowns out any concerns about the data.

Asia-Pacific stocks picked up the baton from Wall Street, with Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng both rising more than 1%.

But how quickly markets reversed earlier in the week shows how quickly they can pull back. Despite the dovish notes, the Fed's underlying message remains that rates will rise as much as necessary to contain inflation.

While the prospect of US bond yields returning to 16-year highs above 5% is certainly a risk, there is a sense that the ceiling could be lower, while safe-haven assets are currently in demand amid geopolitical risks.

It's a big day for UK data too, with GDP and industrial production data coming out first.

At its meeting last month, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged for the first time since the start of the interest rate tightening cycle in December 2021, but traders are putting the possibility of another rate hike before the end of the first quarter of next year at stake.

TRADING SIGNALS: SEPTEMBER INFLATION IN THE USA

Dear clients,

A closely watched US inflation report may help solve one of the most pressing questions among traders: whether the market has correctly identified the short-term trajectory of interest rates.

What to expect this month, let's learn from our expert:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported an increase in inflation expectations of the population, which is favourable for the US dollar, as the Fed may then raise interest rates at its next meeting in November. On Thursday consider selling GBPUSD, #NQ100 and buying USDZAR, USDTRY.

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FINAL BOSS OF MICROSOFT\ACTIVISION BLIZZARD

Dear clients,

The UK competition authority on Friday approved Microsoft's acquisition of "Call of Duty" game maker Activision Blizzard after earlier concerns were allayed by a restructuring of the deal.

Activision agreed to sell its streaming rights to Ubisoft Entertainment in August, and last month Microsoft proposed measures to ensure compliance with the terms of the deal, allowing the regulator to allay some residual concerns.

The approval will allow Microsoft to complete the deal by 18 October, after it extended the deadline by three months in July to get the UK clearance.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said Microsoft's concession on streaming was a "game changer" and added that it was the only competition organisation in the world to achieve such a result.

"The new deal will not allow Microsoft to block competition in cloud gaming as this market evolves, keeping prices and services competitive for UK cloud gaming customers," it said in a statement.

Microsoft announced the biggest deal in gaming industry history in early 2022, but in April the $69bn acquisition was blocked by the CMA, concerned that the US computer giant would gain too much control over the nascent cloud gaming market.

CMA chief executive Sarah Cardell said: "We made it clear to Microsoft that the deal would be blocked unless they addressed all of our concerns and we stand by our judgement." She said the regulator, which has been given greater powers following the UK's exit from the European Union, makes decisions "without political influence" and will not be "subject to lobbying by corporations".

Microsoft expressed "gratitude for the CMA's careful consideration and judgement".

"We have now cleared the final hurdle to finalise a deal that we believe will benefit players and the gaming industry worldwide," said vice president and president Brad Smith.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

BUY ON RUMOURS: BITCOIN'S NEW SURGE

Dear clients,

Cryptocurrencies continued to rise in Asian trading on Tuesday, with bitcoin rising to nearly an 18-month high amid speculation about the imminent creation of an exchange-traded bitcoin fund.

The bitcoin exchange rate rose more than 6% to $35,198, its highest since May 2022. It rose 10% on Monday, its best performance in almost a year, and doubled its price in 2023.

Cryptocurrency-related stocks such as Coinbase Global (COIN.O) rose in over-the-counter trading.

An exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds bitcoin on behalf of fund investors is seen as a demand driver, as it will allow those who don't want to trade in cryptocurrency markets to purchase bitcoin through the stock market.

Investment giant BlackRock is among several companies that have applied to set up bitcoin funds in the US, and speculation over their possible approval has been fuelled by the listing of BlackRock's iShares ETF on the DTCC clearing house website.

Expectations also rose after it was revealed this month that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will not appeal a court ruling that improperly rejected an ETF application from Grayscale Investments.

When and why the iShares ETF was added to the DTCC list was not specified. Last week, BlackRock denied an erroneous report that its ETF had been approved, and sources close to the SEC confirmed that the application was still under review.

THE SOUND OF SILENCE

Dear clients,

Poor lending data and weak purchasing managers' surveys confirmed what traders had already guessed: The rate hike cycle in Europe is over.

Markets believe there is little chance of a rate hike and see a recession on the horizon.

Absent surprises, trading is likely to hinge on earnings - Unilever (ULVR.L), Mercedes (MBGn.DE) and Amazon (AMZN.O) report on Thursday - and the behaviour of yields and the yen.

Google's disappointing results for its cloud division led to the sharpest drop in Alphabet shares since March 2020 on Wednesday, and they fell further in after-market trading in Asian hours.

The yen has surpassed the 150 per dollar mark and is now trading at its lowest level since Japanese authorities intervened last October to push the market higher.

On Wednesday, 10-year Treasury bond yields rallied towards 5% after a rise in US home sales gave further cause for concern about continued high interest rates. Nasdaq futures fell 1%.

"INACTION IS ACTION"

Interest rate brakes are fuelling optimism in markets.A sharp pullback in long-term US Treasury rates gave investors in the Asia-Pacific region a chance to exhale, with bond yields falling from decade highs in Tokyo and Sydney.

Stocks rebounded despite another sharp fall in Wall Street overnight, giving European investors cause for optimism. Japan's Nikkei index jumped 1.5% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was not far behind.

Undoubtedly, the US dollar is still in the lead, but the yen at least retreated from a one-year low and the euro recovered after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced a pause in the rate hike cycle, saying that "inaction is also action".

Some market recovery on Friday would be a good respite before a possible volatile marathon next week, when the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will make policy decisions on consecutive days.

The ECB has raised expectations that policy tightening in the US and UK has come to an end, making the Japan meeting potentially the most interesting. Perhaps for a central bank prone to surprises, the BOJ announcement will come on Halloween, with a weakening yen and rising yields fuelling speculation of another hawkish policy shift.

BREAKING NEWS FOR SOUTH AFRICA — DEPOSIT WITH KUCHINGA VOUCHER, OZOW, AND SNAPSCAN!

Dear clients,

We're thrilled to announce a super convenient way to make deposits in South Africa.

Find a new deposit methods in your Personal Area, namely Kuchinga Voucher, Ozow and Snapscan.

Here's the rundown:

No deposit fees
Currency: ZAR (South African Rand)
Minimum deposit amount: 200 ZAR
Maximum deposit amount: 37,900 ZAR
Choose from three options: Kuchinga Voucher, Ozow, Snapscan
Don't miss out on this stress-free way to top up your account in South Africa.

Thanks for making us your go-to for all things trading!

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

DOUBLING THE DOUBLE: DEPOSIT BONUS 202%

Dear clients,

Is it possible to hedge against volatility and increase the trading balance at the same time? Yes, with the deposit bonus, now 202%.

For every deposit of $202 or more, your account will be credited with a 202% deposit bonus.

With this bonus, not only will you double your deposit, but you'll also create a protective cushion for your account in case of a loss.

And don't delay, the offer is available until the 14th of November!

+15 TO ACCOUNT: BONUS FOR DEPOSITS WITH CRYPTOCURRENCY

Dear clients,

Do you want to get profit right from the doorstep? Deposit with any cryptocurrency and get up to 15% of the amount in real funds.

And hurry up, the offer is valid until the 14th of November!

Full Terms:

1. The promotion period is from November 1 to November 14, 2023.
2. The amount of the bonus when depositing with cryptocurrency is:
2.1. 5% up to 500 USD / 500 EUR in the currency of the trading account;
2.2. 10% from 500 USD / 500 EUR in the currency of the trading account;
2.3. 15% from 1 000 USD / 1 000 EUR in the currency of the trading account.
3. The bonus is credited to the deposited trading account to the "Balance" field and can be used without limitations but according to the full terms of the promotion. Maximum bonus amount is 500 USD / 500 EUR / 10 MBT in the trading account currency.
4. The Company is reserves the right to:
4.1. Deduct bonus funds if the Client decides to withdraw over 30% of the deposited amount within 60 days after the deposit;
4.2. To refuse to credit the bonus, limit its size for the Client, and (or) deduct bonus funds at its discretion at any time;
4.3. Change the terms or the period of the promotion.
5. By recieving the Bonus, the Client confirms their compliance with the terms of promotion.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

OCTOBER FEST

Dear clients,

October is known for its volatility and this month - from oil rallies to bitcoin phoenix - was no exception.

Let's see how the month went for our clients:

The most profitable instruments were currency pair Dollar\Israeli Shekel (USDILS), Dollar\Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Gold\Australian Dollar (XAUAUD) on Buy deals; oil West Texas Intermediate (#WTI) and Brent (#BRENT) on Sell deals.

What did FreshForex traders earn on?

The Heatmap will tell more about these and other instruments.

The month was quite competitive:

FreshForex celebrated its 19th anniversary with the FreshForex Birthday Challenge, where traders competed for places in the ranking;
A large prize pool of 100 barrels of Brent was raffled off among oil enthusiasts.


We're barging into November with two promotions — +15% to cryptocurrency deposit and a 202% support bonus. It's up for two weeks, so be quick and have a great November!

FOUR SINGLES — TWO PROMOS: HOW TO MAKE MONEY DURING THE SALE PERIOD?

Dear clients,

November is known for its festival of sales, but we decided to throw a party for those who want to earn money instead:

Till November 14, you can make a deposit with cryptocurrency and get up to 15% bonus on your account, as well as double your deposit with 202% bonus.

Profit while others spend!

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

EVERYBODY GETS TO TRADE! NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NATIONAL AND CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Dear clients,

Great news, stocks are now available for even more currency accounts:

Currencies for MT4 and MT5: South African Rand (ZAR), Nigerian Naira (NGN), Malaysian Ringgit (MYR), Tanzanian Shilling (TZS), Kazakhstani Tenge (KZT).
Cryptocurrencies for MT5: MilliBitcoin (MBT), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA).
Cryptocurrency for MT4: MilliBitcoin (MBT).

Current promotions:

101% drawdown bonus will double your trading budget when things go wrong.
A 300% deposit bonus will give you up to $5000 extra funding to secure margins.
Get a cashback in real money up to $20 per lot weekly.
With stop-out insurance (for MT4 accounts) you'll get 50% back in case of losses!


No need to lose money on conversion, open an account in a currency that suits you and use the functionality to the maximum.

Customize your trading - your choice, your profit!

TRADING SIGNALS: OCTOBER INFLATION IN THE US

Dear clients,

A closely watched US inflation report may help solve one of the most pressing questions among traders: whether the market has correctly identified the short-term trajectory of interest rates.

What to expect this month, let's learn from our expert:

The University of Michigan reported an increase in inflation expectations of the population, which does not allow us to count on a rapid decline in inflation. This situation is positive for the dollar, as the US Federal Reserve will think about raising interest rates at the December meeting. On Tuesday it is preferable to open Sell GBPUSD, #NQ100, XAUUSD positions.

Any economic events can be monitored directly with the MT5 terminal. Date and time, priority, forecasts and actual values: all the necessary data in one place and in front of your eyes!

WEEKLY OUTLOOK: GOLD, SILVER, NATURAL GAS

Dear clients,

Natural gas is volatile in a way more than one, as winter is approaching. Meanwhile, gold and silver, well, they never truly left. This time, we'll be looking at these 3 instruments, their positions and movements.

Join us on November 15 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

HOW TO TRADE CHART PATTERNS IN THE FOREX MARKET

Dear Traders,

What are the 5 most important chart patterns to focus on in the Forex market?

We invite everyone to explore this topic no matter your level of experience.

Join us on November 22 at 12:00 GMT for a weekly webinar.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

INCOME UP TO 123% WITH U.S. TECH GIANTS

Dear Investors,

Shares of the largest U.S. companies are once again rising, highlighting the undeniable power of the American economy.

The triumph belongs to the automaker Tesla, with a 123% increase in share value since the beginning of the year. Founded by Elon Musk, the company is a leader in electric cars and autopilot technologies. The growing demand for electric vehicles and the potential for the development of autonomous vehicles contribute to the increasing interest of investors in this company.

Apple's shares are once again heading towards the $200 per share mark. Over 11 months, there has been a growth of 52%. Under the leadership of the brilliant Tim Cook, the company has once again proven its unparalleled strength in the world of innovation with products such as the iPhone, iPad, and Mac.

Internet giant Amazon, created by Jeff Bezos and becoming one of the most capitalized companies in the world, continues its ascent - up 67% since the beginning of the year. The company continues its expansion, acquiring new customers and launching impressive innovations in online commerce and cloud technology services.

Shares of the technology giant Microsoft are irresistibly reaching new heights, providing investors with a 55% increase. Under the leadership of Satya Nadella, the corporation continues to amaze investors with its stability and innovative solutions, making its shares another bright candidate for successful investments.

The growing value of shares in Apple, Amazon, Tesla, and Microsoft makes investments even simpler and more attractive. So, what are you waiting for? Replenish your account, add 300% to your account for margin security, choose a stock, and trade with FreshForex!

Become a shareholder and earn!

Your Trusted Broker,

FreshForex

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

THE WAY TO UNLIMITED CRYPTOCURRENCY GROWTH IS OPEN!​

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, in a personal announcement on the Commission's website, revealed the approval of 11 applications for the creation of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on Bitcoin. Trading of these new investment products is now permitted on major stock exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ, and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).



At the opening of the American trading session, the aggregate trading volume of shares from the 11 spot ETFs exceeded $1 billion within the first 30 minutes, as reported by ETF market analyst James Seifert at Bloomberg. Simultaneously, the price of Bitcoin reached $49,000 for the first time since 2022.

The SEC's decision sparked excitement in the crypto industry, with numerous expert forecasts about Bitcoin's future. Many analysts, including Standard Chartered (LON:STAN), expressed optimistic predictions that the BTCUSD price will reach $200,000. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes stated that by 2026, the price of Bitcoin could range from $750,000 to $1 million.

Undoubtedly, the price of the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, will have an impact on the entire crypto market. Therefore, now is the best time to invest in digital assets.

Exclusive offer: Only with us, trading accounts in 7 cryptocurrencies and over 70 crypto pairs with a leverage of 1:100 for 24/7 trading. Deposit in crypto now and receive an additional +10% on your balance!

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

WHAT DRIVES PROFITS FOR FRESHFOREX CLIENTS?​

Global stock markets have experienced an exceptionally strong year since 2019, thanks to a two-month rally. Investors bet on major central banks halting interest rate hikes and swiftly lowering them in the coming year, contributing to market growth.

The US S&P 500 index (#SP500) has risen by 14% since October and by 24% overall for the year, nearly reaching an all-time historical record on the last trading day of the year. The NASDAQ Technology Index (#NQ100) posted its best performance in two decades, increasing by 43% in 2023. In contrast, the London Financial Times Stock Exchange Index (#FTSE100) lagged behind US and European markets, growing by less than 4% in 2023.

This positive trend in the US stock market is a crucial signal for investors and the economy at large. Index growth reflects investor confidence in the prospects of the American economy, demonstrating the strength and resilience of US companies in the current market conditions.

Shares of a small number of major technology companies accounted for a significant portion of Wall Street's profits this year. The rally was mainly driven by the success of the so-called "the Magnificent Seven" - Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta (formerly Facebook), and Nvidia. All of them are available in our trading terminal!

Positive data on stocks and indices set a positive trend for FreshForex clients' profits in 2024, as evidenced by the successful start of many of our traders in January.

And you can start earning right now! Trade the most popular stocks and indices with us, with leverage up to 1:1000!

Invest in stock markets​

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

WILL SOLANA TOKEN BECOME THE FOURTH LARGEST BY MARKET CAPITALIZATION?

Solana is a public blockchain and a direct competitor to Ethereum. Solana stands out for its use of a unique fast blockchain synchronization algorithm called Proof of History (PoH). Due to a significant acceleration of the network, SOL's popularity has surged rapidly.

On January 26th, for the first time in a month, Solana registered over a million active users, surpassing the number of daily active users on the Bitcoin network. Furthermore, Solana continues to maintain a dominant position in intra-network transactions, with a daily volume of 26.9 million on January 26th, significantly outpacing all other networks.

FreshForex analysts note that the Solana token currently holds the fifth position by market capitalization, trailing only BinanceCoin (BNB), Tether (USDT), Ethereum (ETH), and Bitcoin (BTC). Riding the current hype wave, Solana (SOL) has a good chance of moving up to the fourth position. Hence, an increasing number of traders are likely to trust the coin and invest in this asset.

In 2023, the SOL/USD crypto pair grew by over 1000%. In January 2024, a FreshForex client closed SOLUSD trades, bringing a total profit of $38,752. You can start making a profit now by trading with a reliable broker - FreshForex!

SOLUSD and 70 other crypto pairs with leverage up to 1:100 are available for trading 24/7, including weekends! Deposit cryptocurrency now, and we'll add up to 10% to your balance!

Invest in crypto​

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

20% PROFIT IN ONE DAY ON META PLATFORMS!​

05 February 2024
Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook Inc.), a corporation that brings together globally renowned services like Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and more, has made history with the largest single-day stock surge.
On Friday, the company's stocks soared by 20%, reaching a historic high of $485. This signifies an incredible increase in market value by $197 billion — the largest one-day growth in history, surpassing even giants like Apple and Amazon.
Reminder: Meta is one of the most expensive companies globally and is considered one of the "Big Five" in the US information technology sector, alongside Amazon, Alphabet (owns Google), Apple, and Microsoft.

Let's break down the key success points:

• Meta's sales in the fourth quarter of 2023 grew by 25%, generating a total revenue of $40.1 billion with a net profit of $14 billion.
• Meta introduced dividends for the first time, offering $0.50 per share, starting from March 26.
• The corporation increased the scale of its share buyback program to $50 billion, boosting investor confidence.
• Investments in artificial intelligence to enhance targeted advertising efficiency were chosen as the company's long-term strategy.
• Market analysts applaud Meta, citing "growth acceleration" and "improved capital structure efficiency" as key success factors.

With the extensive base of 3.19 billion daily active users in the corporation's products remaining a reliable foundation for growing advertising revenues, FreshForex analysts believe that Meta's revenues in the current quarter will again exceed forecasts, serving as a driver for continued price growth.
The entire technology industry is confidently advancing, with Meta's competitors like Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet (Google) also demonstrating high financial performance. Shares of these companies and many others are available for trading in our company.
Join the world of big money and trade the best securities with a leverage of 1:20.

Become a shareholder​

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

EXCEEDING $50,000 ONCE MORE, WILL BITCOIN REACH THE $70,000 MARK?

Bitcoin, the world's first and most valuable cryptocurrency, continues to attract global investors and traders due to its uniqueness, growth potential, and its ability to influence other cryptocurrencies.



The total amount invested in bitcoins surpassed $1tn this week for the first time since November 2021, fueled by inflows into U.S. ETF funds directly trading bitcoins, which continue to support prices.

The cryptocurrency reached a record high of $69,000 in November 2021. Will it surpass this milestone in 2024?

As of February 14, 2024, the price of the leading cryptocurrency has already exceeded $52,000! Most analysts believe that the bullish trend for BTC will persist in 2024. We previously highlighted this in our news article "The Way to Unlimited Cryptocurrency Growth is Open" on January 12.


Many traders are wondering if they missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin. Crypto market experts assert that Bitcoin remains a profitable purchase, predicting an upcoming remarkable bull rally.

Don't miss out on the opportunity! Trade BTCUSD and other crypto pairs 24/7. Deposit crypto now and receive a +10% bonus on your balance until February 29, 2024!

Invest in crypto​

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

BITCOIN CONFIDENTLY BREAKS $60,000

Today, Bitcoin is not just the first cryptocurrency but a true digital gold with a market capitalization of over $1.20 trillion. This investment volume is comparable to the market capitalization of Meta Platforms Inc. (formerly Facebook) on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Only 2 months into the year, the BTCUSD exchange rate has grown by more than 50%! In just the last week, the cryptocurrency has added 25% to its value, reaching a new milestone of $64,000 without retracements.



On January 12, 2024, we published the news "The path to limitless cryptocurrency growth is open!" about the approval of 11 applications for creating exchange-traded Bitcoin funds. By February 28, the trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs reached $7.69 billion! The influx of funds into Bitcoin is simply colossal; BlackRock alone increased its balance to 151,536 BTC for its spot BTC-ETF.

The overall market capitalization of the crypto market grew by 12% in the last week. There is active discussion in the network about the imminent approval of a spot ETF for Ethereum (ETH). Need we mention what might happen to its price? The price of Bitcoin is a vivid example. The excitement around crypto assets is only growing, the media actively fuels investor interest, and companies and funds continue to increase their investments.

FreshForex analysts have twice talked about the inevitable growth of cryptocurrencies, and new records are expected ahead. Don't miss the chance – earn with us!

At FreshForex, we offer trading accounts in 7 cryptocurrencies and over 70 crypto pairs with leverage of 1:100 for 24/7 trading.

And get a 10% bonus on your balance for the first cryptocurrency deposit!

I want to become a crypto investor​