FreshForex broker - FreshForex.com

[Volkov Yuriy]

THE RISING SUN OF THE MARKET

Dear clients,

As Japanese equities have unexpectedly come back into fashion with global investors, analysts at leading Wall Street investment banks are predicting further gains in the country's major indices.

Japan's Topix index (Tokyo Price Index) has reached new highs in the last two weeks, and on Monday it recorded its highest level since July 1990.

It has jumped 14% since the start of this year, recently fuelled by optimism from the tentative debt ceiling deal reached between US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, along with momentum from a weaker yen. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 continues to rise, gaining around 20% over the past year.

The start of an inflationary regime, combined with Tokyo Stock Exchange valuation reforms, will see Japanese equities hit record highs as early as the first half of 2025, according to BofA Securities.

BofA's forecasts echo those of other Wall Street firms, which see further room for a rally in Japanese equities. Heightened interest from foreign investors, strong earnings and a weak yen should continue to support growth in the Topix index. Disappointment with the Chinese economy and Warren Buffett's recent interest in the Japanese market are also cited as motivators.

While equities may face headwinds in the near term, the BofA said there is "no need to take a bearish stance if the market rallies in line with fundamentals". The current investment environment remains favourable following the opening of the economy and stronger inflation.

The rush in Japanese equities reached a record high on Wednesday amid a continued surge in foreign demand for the country's shares and an adjustment in positions ahead of the rebalancing of the MSCI equity index.

The value of shares traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's Prime Market index reached an unprecedented level of nearly 7 trillion yen ($50 billion) on May 31. Finance Ministry data on Thursday showed foreign investors were net buyers of Japanese shares for nine consecutive weeks in the period ended May 26, the longest buying period since November 2019.

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TRADING SIGNALS: NFP FOR MAY

Dear clients,

On June 2, the Non-farm Payroll, a measure of US industrial employment, is expected to be published. The report greatly influences the movement of American dollar and related instruments.

We will find out what figures are expected this time from our expert:

Falling unemployment claims and rising employment in services - the lion's share of the US economy - are indicative of positive Non-Farm Employment data, which is favourable for the dollar's strength. On Friday, consider buying USDTRY, USDZAR, USDCAD, USDCHF.

Make the most out of your trades with a 300% deposit bonus!

ONE LESS THING TO WORRY ABOUT. THE GROWTH OF OIL

Dear clients,

Oil prices rose on Thursday by the largest amount in a fortnight ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, while the passage of a bill to suspend the US debt ceiling by the House of Representatives helped offset the impact of rising stocks in the country.

US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.01, or 3 per cent, to settle at $70.10 a barrel, recording its biggest daily gain since May 5. Brent crude futures rose $1.68, or 2.3%, to $74.65 a barrel, the biggest daily gain since May 17.

Both benchmarks recovered after two consecutive sessions of declines after the House of Representatives passed a bill late on Wednesday night to suspend the US government debt ceiling and improve the chances of preventing a default. The bill now moves to the Senate.

Market attention has shifted to the OPEC+ meeting on 4 June. Sources within the organisation said the alliance was unlikely to deepen supply cuts at Sunday's meeting, but some analysts believe this is possible as demand figures in China and the US have been disappointing in recent weeks.

US crude inventories rose unexpectedly last week as imports jumped and strategic stocks fell to their lowest level since September 1983, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Data from China's manufacturing sector presented a mixed picture, with Thursday's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI better than expected, while official government data from the previous day reported that activity at firms in May contracted to its lowest level in five months.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

HOT TOPIC: SWAP-FREE CRYPTO IN JUNE!

Dear clients,

Got big plans for summer? Wondering how to boost your seasonal budget? Then pay attention to a proven volatile friend of traders — cryptocurrency.

The threat of a US default is no longer holding back the market, assets are starting to move, which means you got to seize the moment. From June 5 to 20, trade cryptocurrency with no rollover fee.

Terms of the promotion:

1. The promotion is valid from June 5 to 20, 2023.

2. When trading BTCUSD, ETHUSD, LTCUSD, SOLUSD, DASHUSD, BNBUSD, XRPUSD, BCHUSD, ETCUSD, IOTUSD, TRXUSD, ZECUSD, BATUSD, DOTUSD, ADAUSD, Swap and Swap Free commissions are not charged when transferring positions to the next day. The specifications of the instruments can be found here.

3. The promotion is available for all types of trading accounts which were deposited during the promotion period from 299 USD.

4. The company reserves the right to change the terms and conditions of the promotion.

Meet the summer with profit!

WHEN LESS IS MORE. SAUDI ARABIA CUTS OIL PRODUCTION

Dear clients,

Saudi Arabia will make deep production cuts in July, in addition to the broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply until 2024, as the group seeks to boost oil prices.

Saudi Arabia's energy ministry said the country's output would fall to 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in July from around 10 million bpd in May, the biggest cut in years.

"This is a Saudi lollipop," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz told on a news conference. "We wanted to ice the cake. We always want to add suspense. We don't want people to try to predict what we do... This market needs stabilisation".

OPEC+ pumps about 40% of the world's oil, which means its policy decisions could have a significant impact on oil prices.

A surprise decision to cut supplies in April briefly boosted Brent crude prices by about $9, but prices have since retreated under pressure from concerns about global economic weakness and its impact on demand. On Friday, Brent crude ended trading for the week at $76.

OPEC+ imposed production cuts of 3.66m bpd, representing 3.6% of global demand, including the 2m bpd agreed last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66m bpd agreed in April. Those cuts were valid until the end of 2023, and on Sunday OPEC+ said it would extend them until the end of 2024 as part of a broader deal on production policy agreed after seven hours of negotiations.

In addition to extending current OPEC+ production cuts by 3.66 million bpd, the group also agreed on Sunday to cut overall production targets by a further 1.4 million bpd from current targets to 40.46 million bpd from January 2024.

However, many of these cuts will not be real as the group has lowered targets for Russia, Nigeria and Angola to bring them in line with actual current production levels. For its part, the United Arab Emirates was allowed to raise its production targets by about 0.2m bpd to 3.22m bpd.

THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS: APPLE'S WWDC PRESENTATION

Dear clients,

Shares of Apple Inc. traded at record intraday levels on Monday, but failed to close at an all-time high, although they were on track to do so for most of the session.

Apple shares closed Monday at $179.58, down 0.8 per cent after speaking at its WWDC developer event. The stock was as high as $184.95 ahead of the presentation, surpassing its all-time intraday high of $182.94 set on 4 January 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The smartphone giant has endured a lot since its last record close, facing pandemic-related supply problems and cost pressures from its customer base. But Wall Street seems fairly relaxed about Apple's ability to thrive in an era of shrinking consumer budgets. One analyst noted after the company's latest earnings report that iPhones priced at $1,000 and above have become a glorified essentials purchase.

In addition to traditional products, the company introduced a mixed reality headset and surprised investors with price and timing: the new Vision Pro will cost $3499, when the expectation area was around $3000, and will be released in early 2024, not later this year. By announcing the Vision Pro, Apple is making an attempt to enter a category that hasn't been widely adopted until now.

Overall, it's been a strong year for big tech companies. For 2023, Apple shares are up 38%, while Microsoft Corp. shares are up 40%, Alphabet Inc. — 43%, Amazon.com Inc. — 49% and Meta Platforms Inc. shares gained more than 125%

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

BREAK TILL DAWN. FED RATE PAUSE

Dear clients,

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but made it clear in new forecasts that borrowing costs may have to rise by half a percentage point by the end of this year as the US central bank responded to a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation.

In a press conference at the end of the central bank's latest meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that US economic and labour market growth was better than expected under the weight of aggressive monetary tightening last year, which will likely lengthen the Fed's fight to reduce inflation, but also allow it to pass with less economic damage.

According to Powell, the pause was made out of caution to allow the Fed to gather more information before determining whether to raise rates again, with the pace of rate hikes now less important than finding the right endpoint that will slow price growth while minimising unemployment growth.

After a year in which many economists and analysts argued that recession was inevitable and the economy was about to crack, according to the Fed's latest quarterly outlook "growth estimates have gone up slightly, unemployment estimates have gone down slightly, inflation estimates have gone up," Powell said.

The Fed's rate hike coincides with an improved view of the economy and hence slower progress in returning inflation to the central bank's 2% target. It is currently more than double that target.

Wednesday's decision interrupted a string of 10 consecutive rate hikes adopted by the Fed in response to the worst inflation outbreak in 40 years with a corresponding set of aggressive moves, including four excessive hikes of three-quarters of a percentage point last year.

A WAY FORWARD. ECB RATE HIKES

Dear clients,

The European Central Bank on Thursday raised the eurozone's borrowing costs to their highest level in 22 years and said that stubbornly high inflation almost guarantees another hike next month and probably beyond.

The quarter percentage point increase was the ECB's eighth consecutive interest rate hike since it badly miscalculated the sustainability of price growth early last year, bringing its policy rate to 3.5 per cent, a level not seen since 2001.

This came at the same time as confirmation that the ECB is winding down its remaining post-crisis stimulus programmes and an unexpectedly sharp increase in core inflation forecasts by bank staff.

"Unless there are significant changes to our baseline forecasts, it is very likely that we will continue to raise rates in July," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a news conference.

The central bank of the 20 euro-sharing countries also said it now expects inflation to remain above the 2% target by the end of 2025.

The bank raised its forecasts for "core" inflation for 2023 and 2024, excluding volatile energy and food, which the ECB monitors closely. Lagarde also issued her strongest warning yet on rising wages and companies pushing up prices.

Inflation in the eurozone has been falling for months, thanks to lower energy prices and the sharpest rate hike in the ECB's 25-year history. However, it remains unacceptably high for the ECB at 6.1% and underlying price growth is just starting to slow down despite signs of stagnant economic growth.

Although opposing economic factors have likely served as weapons for both sides in the ECB Governing Council, the hawkish majority that insists on further rate hikes remains at the helm.

SWAP FREE VACATION

Dear clients,

Summer is the traditional time for holidays, but not for those who work in financial markets.

Tech boom on one side and world economic woes on the other swing the market like a pendulum and to end up on the right side of volatility we've got you the fitting instruments. From June 20 to July 5, trade indices without transfer fees.

Terms of promotion:

1. The promotion is valid from 20 June to July 5, 2023.

2. When trading #ASX, #CAC40, #ChinaA50, #DAX30, #DJI30, #ESTX50, #FTSE100, #HSI, #IBEX35, #NIKKEI, #NQ100, #SP500, Swap and Swap Free commissions are not charged when transferring positions to the next day. The specifications of the instruments can be found here.

3. The promotion is available for all types of trading accounts which were deposited during the promotion period from 299 USD.

4. The company reserves the right to change the terms and conditions of the promotion.

Have your summer of profit!

A HOT PROFIT! ONLY TILL JUNE 30

Dear clients,

It's time to increase your trade volumes, because we increased the drawdown bonus! Now you get 202% instead of 101%, which will let you open trades that you didn't dare to open before.

If you already have a bonus connected: you just deposit $202 or more, within one hour the bonus will be credited, and you will be able to open trades with significant funds.

If you have an account, but your bonus is not activated: you can do this in your Client Area via this link. Then you fund your account in the same way and wait until it appears in the "Credit" field.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

BITCOIN AND ETHER: GROWTH SUPPORTED BY ACTIVE WITHDRAWALS FROM EXCHANGES

Dear clients,

According to the latest information, investors are rapidly withdrawing Bitcoin and Ether from cryptocurrency exchanges. This has caused the balance sheets of these cryptocurrencies to fall to surprising levels over the past five years.

On June 19, the lowest Bitcoin and Ether balances since 2018 were recorded.

This withdrawal has eased the pressure on the market, supporting the growth of both assets after their recent declines. For example, Bitcoin reached a price of $30,000 for the first time in 2.5 months.

We can expect Bitcoin and Ether to continue to strengthen as the withdrawal trend continues. This gives additional confidence to investors and confirms the continued popularity of these cryptocurrencies as a long-term investment.

So now is the best time to actively trade cryptocurrencies! And topping up your trading account with crypto right now, you'll get an extra 10% to your account balance for nothing.

TRADING SIGNALS: BANK OF ENGLAND'S DECISION ON INTEREST RATES

Dear clients,

On June 22, the Bank of England makes a report on the matter of the interest rates, it is one of the most important events affecting the quotes of the pound sterling. Inflation is one of it's main predictors. Using these data, a trader can judge the internal and external economic development of the country, which is especially important when trading pairs that include the GBP.

What to expect and what to pay attention to, tells our leading analyst:

The Bank of England may raise the discount rate by 0.25 p.p. to 4.75% today and signal to traders that further rate hikes are needed due to high inflation in the U.K. economy. A rate hike is negative for the stock market and it is preferable to open a Sell position in the UK #FTSE100 index on Thursday.

During the inflation period, a drawdown bonus is an excellent choice: until June 30, instead of 101%, you get 202% when topping up of 202 USD or more.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

AN ENCORE: THE HOTTEST PROMOTIONS MUST GO ON!

Dear clients,

On numerous requests swap-free indices and 202% drawdown bonus are extended until July 19.

Don't miss the opportunity to trade indices without rollover fee or to double boost your deposit once again.

Spend your summer with profit!

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

THE UPSIDE GAME. BUILDING GROWTH OF OIL PRICES

Dear clients,

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as markets weighed on supply cuts in August by leading exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia amid an uncertain global economic outlook.

Brent crude futures were up 34 cents, or 0.46 per cent, to $74.99 a barrel by 0618 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.12 a barrel, up 33 cents, or 0.47%.

Saudi Arabia on Monday said it would extend a voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) until August, the kingdom's state news agency said. Russia will also cut oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.

The cuts would amount to 1.5% of global supply and bring the total number of cuts promised by OPEC+ oil producers to 5.16 million bpd, as Riyadh and Moscow seek to support prices.

US crude stocks were expected to fall by around 1.8m barrels in the week to 30 June, marking the third consecutive week of decline. Industrial stockpile data will be released on Wednesday and official data on Thursday, both of which will be delayed by a day due to a US holiday.

On the macroeconomic front, analysts' forecasts were mixed after business surveys showed a decline in global manufacturing activity due to sluggish demand in China and Europe, and US manufacturing activity fell further in June, reaching levels last seen during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

WRITE CLUB. NEW MESSENGER FROM META

Dear clients,

Mark Zuckerberg on Wednesday directly challenged Twitter with the Threads service, amassing millions of users in a matter of hours, as it seeks to take advantage of the position of its competitor, which is in a significantly weakened state after a series of chaotic decisions by its owner Elon Musk.

"Let's do this. Welcome to Threads," Zuckerberg wrote in his first message on the app, along with a fiery emoji. According to him, 5 million people signed up to the app in the first four hours. Analysts say Threads' tie-up with Instagram could give it a built-in user base and advertising machine. This could siphon off advertising dollars from Twitter at a time when its new CEO is trying to revive its struggling business.

Although Threads launched as a standalone app, users can log in using their Instagram credentials and follow the same accounts, potentially making it an easy addition to the existing habits of Instagram's more than 2 billion monthly active users. According to experts, investors can't help but get excited at the prospect of Meta actually having a "Twitter killer".

Like Twitter, the app contains short text messages that users can tag, repost and reply to, although it does not have the ability to send direct messages. Messages can be up to 500 characters long and include links, photos and videos lasting up to five minutes, according to Meta's blog.

Meta shares rose 3% on Wednesday ahead of the launch, outpacing the rise of rival tech companies.

BITCOIN SUPPORT FUND

Dear clients,

Bitcoin reached its highest level in 13 months on Thursday, rising 3.28% to $31,500.

The world's largest cryptocurrency recently found support thanks to plans by fund managers, including BlackRock — the world's largest asset manager — to launch a US-registered spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Nasdaq has reapplied to list BlackRocks' ETF, according to a statement released on Monday, after the US securities regulator raised concerns about the initial applications.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has rejected about 30 applications for exchange-traded funds over the past decade. However the BlackRock Inc. initiative has ignited interest, and a flurry of new applications and amendments to existing offerings has followed.

TRADING SIGNALS: NFP FOR JUNE

Dear clients,

On July 7, the Non-farm Payroll, a measure of US industrial employment, is expected to be published. The report greatly influences the movement of American dollar and related instruments.

We will find out what figures are expected this time from our expert:

Strong employment growth in the service sector — the biggest contributor to the US economy — signals positive Non-Farm Employment data, which is favourable for the American dollar and negative for equity indices, as it leaves the Fed with no choice but to continue its policy of raising interest rates. On Friday consider buying USDZAR, USDCHF and selling AUDUSD, XAUUSD, #SP500, #NQ100.

Get ready for sure with a 300% deposit bonus!

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

THE CALM BEFORE THE SWARM?

Dear traders!

Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Monday as investors are cautious ahead of fresh economic data from top consumers in the United States and China this week, although an expected drop in crude supplies from Saudi Arabia and Russia capped losses.

Brent crude futures fell 55 cents, or 0.7%, to $77.92 a barrel by 0630 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $73.31 a barrel, also down 55 cents, or 0.7%.

Factory prices in China fell in June at the fastest pace in seven years, government data showed on Monday, as the pace of economic recovery in the world's second-largest economy slowed.

Oil prices rose more than 4% last week to their highest levels since May, climbing for a second straight week after the world's biggest oil exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, pledged to deepen supply cuts in August.

Experts believe market volatility is fueled by the ongoing tug-of-war between concerns about demand controls by Western economies and OPEC's supply control strategies, affecting the delicate balance of the oil market.

Non-OPEC+ supply is keeping pace with global demand, JPMorgan analysts said in a note, adding that OPEC+ needs to deepen production cuts by another 700,000 bpd in the second half of the year on top of the announced cuts and extend them to 2024.

THE СASTLING OF NASDAQ 100

Dear clients,

Shares of Apple, Microsoft and other heavyweights fell on Monday after Nasdaq Inc said it intends to rebalance the Nasdaq 100 index to eliminate "over-concentration."

Apple's market capitalization fell 1.1% to $2.967 trillion, after surpassing the $3 trillion threshold for the first time on June 30. Shares of Alphabet and Amazon fell more than 2%, while Microsoft and Tesla fell more than 1%.

Wall Street's most expensive stocks declined after Nasdaq said late Friday that it would conduct a "special rebalancing" of the index to "eliminate excessive concentration in the index by reallocating weightings."

The adjustment will be based on shares outstanding as of July 3, and the changes will be announced July 14 and take effect before the market opens July 24.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

WHAT'S IN THE NEWS? TIPS FOR A SUCCESSFUL NEWS TRADING

Dear clients,

News are fundamental element of trading and should be treated accordingly. This time, we'll be looking for the best approach in news trading.

Join us on July 12 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

TRADING SIGNALS: JUNE INFLATION IN THE U.S.

Dear clients,

A closely watched US inflation report may help address one of the most pressing questions among traders: whether the market has correctly identified the short-term trajectory of interest rates. Belief in lower rates has driven bond yields lower, supporting giant tech and growth stocks that have exposure to broad stock indexes.

What to expect this month, our expert explain:

The market is expecting US inflation to fall 0.9 pp to 3.1%, but the final figure could be above consensus forecast on the back of a strong labor market, as job and wage growth has always kept inflation high in the past. On Wednesday, consider buying USDTRY, USDZAR and selling #NQ100, AUDUSD.

Any market shift will prove easier with a 202% drawdown bonus.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

DEEP DIVE. THE DOLLAR'S BIGGEST DROP IN A YEAR

Dear clients,

The dollar fell to its lowest level in more than a year on Wednesday after data showed U.S. consumer price growth slowed in June, indicating the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates only one more time this year.

The dollar index fell to 100.54, the lowest since April 2022, and was last down 1% to 100.55, the biggest daily decline since early February.

Following the inflation report, the dollar also hit its lowest against the Swiss franc since early 2015. It was last down 1.3% to 0.8675 francs, having previously fallen to a session low of 0.8660, the lowest since the Swiss National Bank de-pegged the Swiss currency in January 2015.

Data showed that U.S. core consumer prices rose just 0.2% in June, compared with forecasts for a 0.3% rise. The monthly increase in core prices was the smallest since August 2021. On an annualized basis, the core U.S. CPI rose 4.8%, below market expectations for a 5% increase. It was the lowest annualized gain in more than two years.

U.S. rate futures continue to show traders overwhelmingly expect a quarter-point increase in the discount rate, to the 5.25%-5.5% range, at the Fed's July 25-26 meeting, but the probability of another rate hike before the end of the year is now around 25%, down from around 35% before the report.

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED. A TECH STARTUP FROM ELON MUSK

Dear clients,

Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk launched his long-sought artificial intelligence startup xAI on Wednesday, unveiling a team made up of engineers from the very large U.S. tech companies he hopes to challenge in his quest to create an alternative to ChatGPT.

The startup will be led by Musk himself, who has repeatedly stated that the development of artificial intelligence should be put on hold and that the sector needs to be regulated. Musk has repeatedly voiced concerns that AI could lead to "civilizational destruction."

On Wednesday night on Twitter Spaces, Musk outlined his plan to create safer AI. Instead of explicitly programming morality into its AI, he said, xAI will seek to create an AI that is "as curious as possible."

"If it tries to understand the true nature of the universe, that will be the best I can come up with in terms of AI safety," Musk said. "I think he will be in favor of humanity from the standpoint that humanity is much more interesting than non-humanity."

Musk's new company is separate from X Corp but will work closely with Twitter, Tesla and other companies, according to its official website.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

CHARGING AHEAD: TESLA'S NEW SUCCESSES

Dear clients,

Tesla's strategy of boosting sales by lowering prices probably led to its strongest revenue growth in five quarters, while profitability fell to a three-year low in the April-June quarter.

Since late last year, the Elon Musk-led electric car maker has launched a price war to stimulate demand and stifle competition from older automakers such as Ford Motor and Chinese rivals including BYD.

Tesla is expected to report on Wednesday that gross margins fell to 18.9% in the second quarter, according to 19 analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha. That's down from 20.2% in the previous quarter and 25.9% a year earlier.

With electric car sales slowing, Tesla has been aggressively trying to capture a bigger share of the U.S. charger market in an effort to diversify its revenue streams. It has entered into agreements with companies such as Ford Motor and General Motors to use its North American Charging Standard (NACS), allowing its market value to more than double to $880 billion this year. Following these partnerships, several charging companies have announced their intention to adopt Tesla's standard.

While this will not contribute much to second-quarter revenue, which is expected to grow 45.2% to $24.59 billion, analysts predict it will significantly boost the company's earnings going forward.

"IT'S NOT SO BAD": GOLDMAN SACHS ON POSSIBLE US RECESSION

Dear clients,

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said on Monday that the bank is lowering the probability of a US recession starting in the next 12 months to 20%, down from its previous forecast of 25%.

"The main reason for our downgrade is that recent data have reinforced our confidence that a decline in inflation to an acceptable level will not require a recession," the bank said in a research note.

Market expectations for a so-called "hard landing" - a scenario in which interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve drive the economy into recession - were recently challenged by data showing consumer and manufacturing price inflation slowed in June. Slowing inflation is likely to lead to looser monetary policy in the future. Meanwhile, economic activity remains resilient despite the significant increase in borrowing costs since the Fed's rate hike campaign began in early 2022.

As for the current inversion of the Treasury yield curve, which is generally seen as a harbinger of an impending recession, Hatzius said it reflects and simultaneously confirms "overly pessimistic" economic forecasts.

An inverted yield curve usually signals that the Fed will cut rates to stimulate the economy. However, according to a Goldman Sachs economist, there is a "plausible path" for the Fed to cut interest rates just because of lower inflation.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

CHANGE IN CASHBACK PROGRAM CONDITIONS

Dear clients,

We would like to inform you about changes in Cashback promotion conditions, now the minimum trade time (MTT) is 3 minutes.

Join to the service, trade and get a spread refund up to $20!

CRYPTO TOP UP BONUSES CONTINUE!

Dear clients,

We are glad to inform you that the deposit promotion has been extended until October 31. Use the cryptocurrency you like and get a profit in every replenishment.

Be sure to check the updated terms and conditions:

1. The promotion is valid from March 9 till October 31, 2023.

2. The amount of the bonus is 5% for each deposit by cryptocurrency up to 500 USD / 500 EUR / 50,000 RUB in the trading account currency and 10% for deposits from 500 USD / 500 EUR / 50,000 RUB in the trading account currency.

3. The bonus is credited to the deposited trading account to the "Balance" field and can be used without limitations but according to the full terms of the promotion. Maximum bonus amount is 500 USD / 500 EUR / 10 MBT / 5000 RUB in the trading account currency.

4. The Company is reserves the right to:

4.1. Deduct bonus funds if the Client decides to withdraw over 30% of the deposited amount within 60 days after the deposit;

4.2. Refuse to credit the bonus, limit its size for the Client, and (or) deduct bonus funds at its discretion at any time;

4.3. Change the terms or the period of the promotion.

5. By recieving the Bonus, the Client confirms their compliance with the terms of promotion.

LINING UP: NEW CRYPTOCURRENCY ETFS UNDER REVIEW

Dear clients,

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has accepted for review spot bitcoin fund applications from six companies, including BlackRock, marking the first step in the process of deciding whether to approve or disapprove the latest batch of proposals.

The SEC also formally recognised applications by Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Fidelity and Invesco to create similar spot bitcoin fund ETFs, with those proposals published in the Federal Register on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The SEC had previously rejected dozens of applications to create spot bitcoin ETFs, saying the proposals did not meet fraud and investor protection standards. But Nasdaq, on which BlackRock proposed to list its ETF, said earlier this month that it was going to address those concerns by partnering with Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, to control trading on the underlying bitcoin market.

The first bitcoin futures ETF was approved in October 2021, helping the volatile bitcoin hit an all-time high of $69 000 in November 2021.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

MORE EFFICIENT TRADING WITH DRAWDOWN BONUS

Dear clients,

Good news! The drawdown bonus is also extended until 31 October. Use the extra funds to support your account during drawdown or to increase your trading turnover.

Also pay attention to the updated terms and conditions:

The bonus amount is 101% for each deposit from 101 USD / 101 EUR / 8080 RUB in the trading account currency.
The bonus is deducted from the account in full in case of creating a withdrawal request or transferring funds to another account.

Trade with certainty!

COMING SOON? US RECESSION DATA

Dear clients,

An index designed to track turns in the US business cycle declined for the 15th consecutive month in June, led by weakening consumer sentiment and rising jobless claims, marking the longest decline since the 2007-2009 recession.

The Conference Board said Thursday that its index of leading economic indicators, a gauge that helps forecast future economic activity, fell 0.7% to 106.1 in June after a revised 0.6% decline in May.

"Taken together, the data for June suggest that economic activity will continue to slow in the coming months", the organisation's analysts said. The Conference Board reiterated its forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from the current third quarter to the first quarter of 2024.

The Conference Board also noted that the decline in the LEI index is accelerating, with it falling 4.2% in the past six months, down from 3.8% between June and December 2022.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

ANALYST EX MACHINA: A CONTEST FROM FRESHFOREX

Dear clients,

The development of artificial intelligence is moving by leaps and bounds; from drawing to weather forecasting, it seems that there is practically no limit to AI capabilities.

But does the machine understand trading? That's what we about to find out, and while we at it, have a bit of a competition.

From 24th to 30th July, register and trade on signals from the AI. The three participants with the largest number of open positions will get $50 to their accounts.

All details are on the contest page.

And keep in mind: the AI only advises, you decide.

Trade intelligently!

A ROUND THE WORLD. CRYPTOCURRENCY FROM THE CREATOR OF CHATGPT

Dear clients,

On Monday, the Worldcoin cryptocurrency project, founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, will launch. The company creating Worldcoin is Tools for Humanity, based in San Francisco and Berlin.

The core offering of the project is the World ID, an account that only real people can get. To get a World ID, a customer registers and personally undergoes an iris scan with a Worldcoin "orb" — a silver ball about the size of a bowling ball. Once the iris scan confirms that the person is real, a World ID is created.

The project has 2 million users during its beta testing period, and with Monday's launch, Worldcoin is expanding its "orbing operations" to 35 cities in 20 countries. As an incentive, those who sign up in certain countries will receive a Worldcoin WLD cryptocurrency token.

The cryptocurrency aspect of World IDs is important because cryptocurrency blockchains allow World IDs to be stored in such a way that privacy is preserved and they cannot be controlled or disabled by any entity.

According to the authors of the project, World IDs will be necessary in the era of generative chatbots with artificial intelligence, such as ChatGPT, which create remarkably similar speech to human speech. World IDs will be able to be used to distinguish real people from AI bots on the Internet.

Major cryptocurrency exchange Binance said it will list Worldcoin, with a tentative opening of trading expected at 09:00 GMT on Monday.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

TRADING SIGNALS: US FED MEETING

Dear clients,

On July 26, a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, the body that performs the functions of the Central Bank of America, will take place. The decision on the interest rate will determine the further movement of the market, which draw attention of traders.

How the interest rate situation will develop now, our expert explain:

The US Fed may raise the rate by 0.25 p.p. to 5.5% and will signal to the market that the current cycle of rate hikes is coming to an end. Since inflation is falling in the US, we will see the Fed's real interest rate rise, which has always had a favourable impact on the value of the dollar in the past. On Wednesday consider buying USDTRY, USDZAR and selling XAUUSD, XAGUSD.

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WEEKLY OUTLOOK: BTCUSD, ETHUSD, XRPUSD

Dear clients,

Ripple effect has jumpstarted the cryptomarket for the altcoin and even lend a shoulder to bitcoin itself. This time, we'll be looking at the cryptocurrencies, their positions and further movements.

Join us on July 26 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them on our site.

THE ECONOMIC PENDULUM IS IN MOTION

Dear clients,

Global stocks rose on Tuesday thanks to a rally in Asia, where the yuan jumped after China pledged to step up support for its gasping economy, while evidence of slowing growth in Europe weighed on the euro.

On Monday, China's top leaders pledged to step up aid to an economy struggling to recover from the crisis and signalled more measures to boost the property industry were on the way.

The MSCI All-World Index rose 0.2% on the back of gains in China's stock market, with the mainland index (.SSEC) up 1.9% and Hong Kong shares (.HSI) up 3% thanks to gains in property stocks, which have been falling due to debt repayment problems.

However, the positive momentum did not carry over to Europe, where stocks and the euro struggled to stay in positive territory as recession fears resurfaced after regional surveys the previous day showed business activity contracted much more sharply than expected in July.

Purchasing managers' indices published on Monday came in below expectations both in the eurozone as a whole and in key countries such as France and Germany, prompting traders to rethink what the European Central Bank might signal about the prospects for a rate hike at its meeting on Thursday.

Macroeconomic data released on Tuesday showed business confidence in Germany deteriorated this month and eurozone loan demand hit a record low in the second quarter as interest rate hikes took their toll, according to an ECB survey.

The US Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

Markets are expecting a 25 basis point rate hike from both the Fed and the European Central Bank this week, but after that, pricing diverges from the rhetoric of policymakers, so the focus will be on their tone and outlook.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

"THE DOORS ARE OPEN". FED ON FUTURE RATES

Dear clients,

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell saying the economy still needs to slow and the labour market to weaken for inflation to return "credibly" to the 2% target set by the US central bank.

The rate hike, the Fed's 11th in the past 12 meetings, set the benchmark overnight interest rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, a level last seen before the housing market crash in 2007 and which hasn't been exceeded in about 22 years.

"The Federal Open Market Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy," the Fed said in a statement that differs little from the June 14 statement and leaves open the central bank's policy options in search of a stopping point for the current tightening cycle.

In addition, central bank officials are no longer forecasting a recession in the US. "So the staff's forecast now includes a marked slowdown in growth starting later this year, but given the recent resilience of the economy, they are no longer forecasting a recession," the Fed chairman said.

Powell made no promises either way: the September meeting, eight weeks away, is considered "live" for another rate hike, although a continued slowdown in inflation and weaker economic data could also prompt policymakers to take a pause.

However, he cautioned against expecting any rate easing in the near future. "We'll be comfortable cutting rates when we're comfortable cutting rates, and that won't be this year," Powell said.

ANSWER THE SIGNAL

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ADVERTISING INTELLIGENCE. META'S AD REVENUES

Dear clients,

Meta shares rose nearly 8% on Thursday as an encouraging revenue forecast showed that artificial intelligence is helping the social media giant increase engagement and ad sales even in a volatile economy.

The market value of the company, which owns Facebook, was set to rise by about $60 billion after strong second-quarter earnings prompted 18 analysts to raise their target prices for the stock, which has already more than doubled this year.

Although Meta's 12% growth in ad revenue in the second quarter outpaced Google's 3% growth, earnings reports from both digital advertising giants confirmed a rebound in the sector.

Meta and Google have a combined market capitalisation of around $160 billion in the near term, exceeding the individual market value of around 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 index.

Meta's results were also boosted by improved monetisation of Reels, the short video format that is the company's answer to TikTok. According to CEO Mark Zuckerberg, annual revenue from Reels exceeds $10 billion, up from $3 billion last autumn.

The positive view from analysts confirms that a focus on cutting costs and boosting engagement through artificial intelligence has helped Meta emerge as a Wall Street favourite this year after being derided for much of 2022 for huge spending on the ambitious metaverse.

Meta's accelerating revenue growth has helped allay some fears about an expected surge in costs in 2024 due to legal fees and rising infrastructure costs, which are seen as key to the tech sector's feverish AI race.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

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THE DISCOUNT MINE. REDUCED SPREADS ON GOLD AND SILVER TRADING

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BAD APPLE

Dear clients,

Apple on Thursday predicted that its sales slump would continue into the current quarter, sending its stock tumbling despite beating Wall Street forecasts for sales and earnings in its fiscal third quarter.

Apple shares fell about 2% after the company predicted that the sales decline could be the fourth consecutive quarter of decline. Profit growth in the period was led by higher services sales, but lower-than-expected sales of Apple's best-known device, the iPhone, did not satisfy investors. Company executives said iPhone sales would improve in the fourth quarter, but didn't say by how much.

Apple is in a tricky position: its entrenched iPhone is fighting for share with Android rivals in a mature market, and its next big product, the Vision Pro mixed-reality headset announced in June, has yet to get into the hands of consumers.

Apple said sales in its fiscal third quarter ended July 1 fell 1.4% to $81.8 bln and earnings per share rose 5% to $1.26. That exceeded analysts' expectations of $81.69 bln and $1.19 per share, according to Refinitiv's IBES data. Weak iPhone sales were balanced by strong sales in the services segment, which includes Apple TV+, as well as sales in China, which grew 8% year-over-year.

At the same time, Apple managed to outperform the weakest smartphone market in China in a decade. According to Counterpoint Research, total smartphone sales in China fell 8% in the second calendar quarter, hitting the lowest level since 2014. Apple CEO Tim Cook, on the other hand, said that iPhone sales in China had "doubled" and that sales in other segments in China were also strong.

This helped Apple boost sales in the Greater China region to $15.76 bln, up from $14.60 bln in the same quarter last year.

According to Refinitiv, iPhone sales totalled $39.67 bln, below analysts' expectations of $39.91 bln. Cook said the number of iPhone units reached a new high, but did not provide any figures.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

AMAZON'S CLOUD NINE

Dear clients,

Amazon.com shares rose more than 8% on Friday on signs that the company's growth engines, e-commerce and cloud technology, are doing well in a volatile economy, helping the broader market fend off Apple's 4.8% drop after iPhone sales slumped.

Reports summarised a positive earnings season for most major US tech companies, from Google to Meta, thanks to a rebound in the digital advertising market and increased demand for cloud services after nearly a year of decline.

Shares in retail giant Amazon closed at a near one-year high and boosted its market value by more than $109 bil.The better-than-expected performance of Amazon's cloud business in the second quarter also boosted other members of the cherished "trillion-dollar club", with Microsoft and Alphabet up more than 2%. Wall Street analysts said Amazon's above-forecast quarterly earnings and sales showed that both of its key businesses can grow together after two years of "nasty surprises."

According to Refinitiv, at least 26 analysts - nearly half of those analysing the company's stock — raised their price forecasts for Amazon, bringing the median forecast to $170. That represents a gain of nearly 32% for Amazon stock, which is up nearly 50% so far this year.

The surge in Amazon stock reflects analysts raising their estimates for its earnings. At $139.57, the stock is valued at 47 times consensus earnings per share in 2024, according to Refinitiv's updated estimates.

ISSUED IN DIGITAL. STABLECOIN BY PAYPAL

Dear clients,

On Monday, payments giant PayPal announced the launch of a dollar-stablecoin, becoming the first major financial technology company to adopt digital currencies for payments and transfers.

The announcement by PayPal, whose shares rose 2.66% on Monday, reflects a show of confidence in the troubled cryptocurrency industry, which has struggled with regulation over the past 12 months, exacerbated by a string of high-profile crashes.

While "stable coins" have been around for quite some time, they have yet to successfully embed themselves into the mainstream consumer payments ecosystem.

Instead, consumers mostly use stablecoins as a means of trading other cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ether. The world's largest stablecoin is Tether, followed by USD Coin, issued by cryptocurrency provider Circle.

Previous attempts by major mainstream companies to launch stablecoins have met stiff resistance from financial regulators and politicians. Plans by Meta, Facebook back then, to launch the Libra stablecoin in 2019 were scrapped after regulators raised concerns that it could disrupt global financial stability.

Since then, a number of major economies, from the United Kingdom to the European Union, have drafted rules governing the circulation of stablecoins. The EU rules will come into force in June 2024.

PayPal's stablecoin, dubbed PayPal USD, is backed by dollar deposits and short-term U.S. Treasuries and will be issued by Paxos Trust Co. It will be gradually made available to PayPal customers in the US.

The token will be exchangeable for US dollars at any time and can also be used to buy and sell other cryptocurrencies that PayPal offers on its platform, including bitcoin.

WEEKLY OUTLOOK: GOLD, SILVER

Dear clients,

According to the World Gold Council, the demand for gold is steadily decreasing, thus shifting the price dynamics. This time, we'll be looking at precious metals, their current status and future movements.

Join us on August 9 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

TRADING SIGNALS: JULY INFLATION IN THE USA

Dear clients,

A closely watched US inflation report may help solve one of the most pressing questions among traders: whether the market has correctly identified the short-term trajectory of interest rates.

What to expect this month, our expert comments:

The market is expecting US inflation to rise by 0.3 p.p. to 3.3% on the back of unemployment falling to a multi-year low and wages continuing to grow at a strong pace, allowing Americans to increase consumer spending. Rising inflation is negative for the US stock market. On Thursday, consider selling #NQ100, #SP500, #Barric, #Amgen.

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A PLEASANT SURPRISE OR AN UNNECESSARY VARIABLE? UK ECOMOMICAL DATA

Dear clients,

The UK economy unexpectedly showed growth in the second quarter, laying the groundwork for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, but it remains the only major economy that has yet to recover the levels that preceded the economic crisis of late 2019.

Official data released on Friday showed the economy grew by 0.2% in the second quarter, contradicting economists' early forecasts. The data led to a sharp rise in sterling against the US dollar and euro.

The strong figures have bolstered bets that the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates, as it emphasised this month that the strength of the economy is one of the factors on which it will base its decision. The central bank itself had forecast the economy to grow at 0.1% in the second quarter.

Now the Bank of England has a new headache — they may well have paused interest rate rises in the near future, but with such data it is much harder to do so, experts say.

British government bond yields rose after the market opened while investors were digesting the data.

Manufacturing recorded its best quarter since the start of 2019, aside from the initial rebound after the first COVID-19 lockout of 2020, with output up 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. Business investment also rose 3.4% for the quarter.

"The measures we are taking to tackle inflation are starting to work, which means we are laying the solid foundations we need to grow the economy," said Treasury Secretary Jeremy Hunt.

Although Britain, unlike the eurozone, has so far managed to avoid recession, the data confirmed the relatively poor performance of its economy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

At the end of the second quarter, the British economy was 0.2% below year-end 2019 levels, compared to growth of 0.2% in Germany, 1.7% in France, 2.2% in Italy and 6.2% in the US.

GROWTH AND ACHIEVEMENTS. NEW FRESHFOREX AWARD

Dear clients,

We are proud to announce that FreshForex has been awarded as the Fastest Growing Broker 2022 by AllForexBonus.com.

The company won in the nomination of the Fastest Growing Broker.

AllForexBonus.com is a leading financial portal covering all types of Forex, CFD and Cryptocurrency promotions by financial brokers around the world. This award demonstrates the results of our growth and development in a very turbulent industry. Our efforts have not gone unnoticed - it motivates us to keep working, improving and offering new solutions for our clients.

We thank AllForexBonus.com for the recognition and appreciation of our efforts.

 

[Volkov Yuriy]

BY A BOOTSTRAPS. RATE CUT BY CHINA'S CENTRAL BANK

Dear clients,

China's central bank unexpectedly cut its key rate for the second time in three months on Tuesday, signalling again that the country's authorities are stepping up efforts to ease monetary policy to stimulate a faltering economic recovery.

Analysts said the move opened the door for a possible cut in China's benchmark lending rate next week.

Market watchers said slower credit growth and higher deflation risk in July necessitated additional monetary easing measures to stem the slowdown in the economy, while default risks of some housing developers and a payment miss by a private asset manager also affected confidence in the financial market.

The People's Bank of China said it cut the rate on one-year medium-term loans worth 401 billion yuan ($55.25 billion) to some financial institutions by 15 basis points to 2.50% from 2.65% previously.

The medium-term rate serves as a benchmark for the benchmark rate, and markets largely use the medium-term rate policy as a precursor to any changes in credit benchmarks. The monthly fixing of the base rate is due next Monday.

The central bank also lent 204 billion yuan in seven-day reverse repayment deals, lowering borrowing costs by 10 basis points to 1.80% from 1.90% earlier, it said in an online statement.

China remains an exception among global central banks as it has loosened monetary policy to support a stalled economic recovery, while other countries are in a tightening cycle struggling with high inflation. Tuesday's rate change widened the yield gap with other major economies, particularly the U.S., putting pressure on the yuan and risking capital outflows.

FUTURES SECURED. COINBASE' LEGAL TRIUMPH.

Dear clients,

Coinbase Global announced on Wednesday that it has received permission to offer cryptocurrency futures to retail customers in the United States, in a major victory against a lawsuit by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The move will allow Coinbase to offer bitcoin and ether futures directly to eligible US customers. Until now, only the company's institutional clients have been able to trade such products.

Coinbase shares rose 3% to $81.55 after receiving approval from the National Futures Association (NFA), a separate regulatory organisation authorised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

"This is a critical milestone that reaffirms our commitment to operating a regulated and compliant business," Coinbase said in a statement.

The company has openly criticised the SEC, which in a June lawsuit accused Coinbase of illegal activity because it failed to register as an exchange.

CEO Brian Armstrong also said that an unfriendly regulatory environment could cause more U.S. cryptocurrency companies to go offshore, and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's coercive approach could stifle innovation in the industry.

The NFA approval, which came nearly two years after Coinbase's filing, could allow the company to enter a largely untapped market.

The global derivatives market accounts for nearly 80% of the entire cryptocurrency market, and bets on futures and other leveraged derivatives are often the cause of volatility in the broader market.

MORE CURRENCIES, WIDER OPTIONS

Dear clients,

Trading is becoming even more convenient, our set of available currencies in which you can deposit and hold an account has received a major update:

National currencies: Malaysian ringgit (MYR), Nigerian naira (NGN), Tanzanian shilling (TZS), Kazakhstani tenge (KZT) and South African rand (ZAR)

The list of cryptocurrencies has also been expanded. All presented options are sought-after coins with high capitalisation:

Cryptocurrencies: Tether (USDT), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA)

Deposit in the way that suits you!

HOUSE DIVIDED. FED MEETING MINUTES

Dear clients,

At the US Federal Reserve meeting held on July 25-26, opinions on the need for further interest rate hikes were divided: "some participants" pointed to the risks to the economy from excessive rate hikes, while "most" policymakers continued to favour fighting inflation, according to the minutes of the meeting published on Wednesday.

"Participants remained determined to bring inflation down to the target level of 2%," said the minutes of the meeting, at which Federal Open Market Committee policymakers unanimously decided to raise the benchmark overnight interest rate to a range of 5.25%-5.50%. "Most participants continue to believe that inflation is subject to significant upside risks, which may warrant further monetary tightening".

However, cautious views on the implications of further monetary tightening played a more prominent role in the discussion at last month's meeting, suggesting a widening spread of views at the Fed as policymakers weigh the evidence of lower inflation and assess the potential damage to jobs and economic growth if rates are raised more than necessary.

The group also "discussed a number of risk management considerations that could affect future policy decisions," the minutes said. While the majority of the panel acknowledged inflation as the main risk, "some participants noted that while economic activity had been resilient and the labour market remained strong, downside risks to economic activity and higher unemployment remained."

Overall, the minutes said, Fed policymakers agreed that uncertainty remained high and that future interest rate decisions would depend on a "body of" data that would arrive in the "coming months" that would "help clarify the extent to which the disinflation process continues," which could signal a more patient approach to further increases in borrowing costs.