Forex Technical Analysis by FXOpen

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Eurostoxx 50 at Important Support. Production in Europe is Declining

As data released this morning showed:
→ Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in France: actual = 42.6, expected = 44.4, a month ago = 43.6. Thus, the index dropped to its lowest level since the panic associated with the spread of coronavirus.
→ PMI in Germany: actual = 40.7, expected = 40.1, a month ago = 39.8.

Since the values of the PMI index (considered a leading indicator of the state of the economy, calculated by S&P Global) are significantly below 50, this indicates a contraction of the economy in the 2 most important countries of Europe in the context of high interest rates.

It is not surprising that the European stock index Eurostoxx 50 shows bearish dynamics: the price is below the SMA (100), which is directed downwards. The publication of PMI values added negativity. Will the bearish trend continue?

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[FXOpen Trader]

FTSE 100 Opens Lower as Barclays' Mixed Results Weigh on Banking Sector

London's FTSE 100 index commenced the trading day on a weaker note, driven by a downturn in the banking sector following Barclays' release of mixed financial results.

At 8:15 AM, the FTSE 100 dipped by 3.78 points to 7,371.05, while its counterpart, the FTSE 250, displayed resilience with a gain of 28.03 points, equivalent to a 0.2% increase, closing the session at 17,087.02. The days of the FTSE 100 surpassing the 8,000-point threshold, which had until a few months ago never been reached, seem to be receding into the past.

Barclays, a high street lender, posted third-quarter profits that surpassed expectations. However, the bank simultaneously announced a downward revision of its UK net interest margin guidance and signalled an anticipated charge in the fourth quarter related to restructuring efforts.

Analysts have characterised this earnings period as less robust, primarily due to an impairment charge that exceeded forecasts. The downgrade in net interest margin guidance, attributed to shifts in deposit pricing and composition, raises concerns about potential negative ramifications in other sectors.

Despite these challenges, the persistently high interest rates continue to provide a favourable tailwind, effectively offsetting the adverse impact of a subdued mortgage market and changes in deposit levels.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Struggles While USD/CHF Turns Red

EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.0625 support. USD/CHF is also declining and struggling below the 0.9000 region.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0685 resistance and declined against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0585 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF is gaining pace below the 0.8975 support zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8940 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair attempted a recovery wave above the 1.0640 zone, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro climbed above 1.0660 but struggled near 1.0685 against the US Dollar.

The pair started a fresh decline below the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0625. The bears were able to push the pair toward the 1.0585 pivot level. The pair traded as low as 1.0583 and is currently showing a lot of bearish signs.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0687 swing high to the 1.0583 low.

The first major resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0625. An upside break above the 1.0625 level might send the pair toward the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0687 swing high to the 1.0583 low at 1.0660.

Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0685 level. On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near a key bullish trend line at 1.0585. The next major support is near the 1.0530 level. A downside break below the 1.0530 support could send the pair toward the 1.0500 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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AUD/USD Analysis: The Rate Reacts Sharply to News About Inflation

Today in Australia, data from the CPI indicator was published, which came as an unpleasant surprise, indicating that inflation in Australia does not want to decline:
Core Price Index was: actual = 5.6%, expected = 5.3%, a month earlier = 5.2%, two months earlier = 4.9%.

Perhaps the reason that inflation is raising its head again is high prices on the world oil market.

One way or another, the AUD/USD chart shows a surge in volatility and a sharp downward reversal from the level of 0.63900. The multidirectionality of impulses may indicate that the news was indeed unexpected.

According to Reuters, two of Australia's four largest banks — the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and ANZ — now expect a quarter-point rate hike in November. “While the current level of 4.35% could mark the peak of the cash rate, there is a risk that policy could tighten further. Any easing is still a long way off,” bank analysts say.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Federal Reserve Signals Prolonged Restrictive Monetary Policy, Impacting Markets

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent announcement underscores the central bank's unwavering commitment to an extended period of restrictive monetary policy, sparking fluctuations in the stock market, surges in the US 10-year Treasury yield, and an appreciation of the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

This resolute stance is designed to persist until there is a high degree of confidence that inflation has sustainably dropped to the targeted 2% over an extended period.

Despite recent US inflation rates aligning with the Federal Reserve's 2% target, Chairman Powell refrained from suggesting that the mission to rein in inflation has been successfully accomplished.

He notably indicated that significant inflation metrics are anticipated to recede in the near future. Powell's stricter warning surpasses investor expectations and runs counter to the backdrop of recent increases in long-term US interest rates and tighter financial conditions, which have evolved since the last Federal Reserve rate hike.

The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is deeply rooted in its keen focus on future economic forecasts and the associated risks.

This position demonstrates the Federal Reserve's heightened willingness to accept the possibility of a recession rather than a resurgence of inflation. Moreover, the Federal Reserve relies on economic models, including the Phillips curve, which posits an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment.

The Japanese yen has experienced considerable volatility over the past week, oscillating between gains and losses against the US dollar on multiple occasions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Google Report Crashes Stock Price

Shares of GOOG and GOOGL fell about 9.5% on Wednesday, wiping Google's parent company's market value by USD 166.64 billion, the fifth-largest decline in capitalization history, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

It is noteworthy that the drop occurred as a result of the publication of a report that turned out to be better than expected:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 1.55, forecast = USD 1.45;
→ gross income: actual = USD 76.69 billion; forecast = USD 75.95.

Why did Google's stock price collapse? Among the reasons may be the fact that revenue from cloud-based services has shown a decline. It amounted to USD 8.41 billion, which is about 2% below expectations of USD 8.6 billion, although in the same quarter last year it was equal to USD 6.87 billion, that is, an increase of 22% over the year.

However, Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities said the stock's negative reaction was "overblown." And according to analysts at Mizuho Americas, the decline in cloud revenue will be "temporary," based on what they've seen in rival Amazon's cloud business.

If the price decline continues, how deep can it be?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Despite Strong Report, META Shares Fall 3%

Like Google, META demonstrated that the price can fall if the quarterly report is better than expected:
→ Earnings per share: actual = USD 4.39, expectation = USD 3.63.
→ Revenue: actual = USD 34.15 billion, expectations = USD 33.56 billion
→ Number of daily active users: fact = 2.09 billion, expectation = 2.07 billion according to StreetAccount.

META's share price initially rose in post-market trading but then reversed course and fell more than 3% following cautionary comments from CFO Susan Lee about the impact of military conflict in the Middle East on the advertising market.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The NASDAQ Index Officially Enters Correction

The decline to current levels from the peak of the top of the year, set on July 19, exceeded 10%, which is generally considered to be the trigger for the start of the correction. According to statistics, this is the 70th official correction since the index was created in February 1971.

Despite the positive report from Microsoft, the bearish dynamics of the NASDAQ index were determined by the decline in shares of Tesla and Google, as well as the rise in the yield of long-term treasury bonds, which increased the cost of borrowing.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

The US Dollar Resumes Growth

Towards the end of the week, the American currency managed to resume medium-term growth. Reversal combinations among commodity currencies were broken, and the pound, yen and euro went to test new lows. The sharp strengthening of the US dollar is most likely caused by the worsening geopolitical situation in the Middle East, rising oil prices and good fundamental data from overseas published this week. Thus, the business activity index (PMI) in the US services sector for October, published on Tuesday, showed growth: 50.9 versus 49.8. New home sales also increased in September: 759K versus 680K.

USD/JPY

The data published above contributed to the exit of the USD/JPY pair from the phase of long-term consolidation at 149.80-148.70. On the weekly USD/JPY chart, greenback buyers easily broke through the upper limit and are currently firmly entrenched above 150.00. If the corresponding foundation is released, the pair may rise to last year’s highs at 151.90. A corrective rollback is possible to 149.50-149.20.

Today at 15:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for the publication of data on basic orders for durable goods in the United States for September. Also at this time, the GDP figure for the third quarter will be released, and weekly data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be published.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Gold Price Rallies Toward $2K While Crude Oil Price Takes Hit

Gold price surged above the $1,960 resistance during the Israel-Hamas war escalated. Crude oil price struggled and declined below the $85.75 support.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase from the $1,974 zone against the US Dollar.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support near $1,982 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices failed to clear the $89.50 region and started a fresh decline.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $83.70 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $1,940 zone. The price remained in bullish zone and started a strong increase above $1,960 during the Israel-Hamas war.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above the $1,974 and $1,982 resistance levels. Finally, the price tested the $1,995 zone before the bears appeared.

There was a minor downside correction below $1,980 and the RSI dipped below 50. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,953 swing low to the $1,993 high.

The price remained strong above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,953 swing low to the $1,993 high.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,982. Initial support on the downside is near $1,982 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The first major support is near the $1,974 zone. If there is a downside break below the $1,974 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,960 support.

Immediate resistance is near the $1,995 level. The next major resistance is near the $2,000 level. An upside break above the $2,000 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,020. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,050 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

USD/JPY Analysis: New High of the Year

Yesterday, for the first time in 2023, the yen weakened to 150.7 per US dollar.

Thus, since the beginning of autumn, the yen has weakened by 3.5%, continuing the trend of 2023, which is due to the difference in the monetary policies of the two countries.

The Fed is pursuing a high rate policy. Yesterday's news testified to the stability of the economy, as US GDP is growing: fact = 4.9% in annual terms; expected = 4.5%; quarter ago = 2.4%. This provides a cushion for the Fed to continue keeping rates high to combat inflation.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose policy, keeping the rate below zero. Today's news showed that Japan's CPI was: actual = 2.7%, expected = 2.5%, a month ago = 2.5%. That is, inflation in Tokyo is raising its head, which increases pressure on the Bank of Japan.

The Bank of Japan meeting will be held next week; on Tuesday, market participants may receive important news about the authorities' response to the weak yen and rising inflation. The chart shows that traders are afraid that the USD/JPY rate could drop sharply because progress in the development of the current trend is slowing down.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Price of Gold Stabilises Near Its 5-month Highs

The XAU/USD rate fluctuates around $1,987 – the July high was formed around this price. And having overcome it, the market stabilized, as evidenced by the ADX indicator, which dropped to its minimum for the month.

Gold is up about 9% in three weeks on war fears. Moreover, if we take the year 2023, then gold has become a more profitable investment than the stock market, since according to Dow Jones Market Data, as of Thursday's close, the S&P 500 SPX index has gained 7.8% since January 1, at that time as front-month gold futures gained 9.2% over the same period.

On Friday, gold traders are focused on the release of US Core PCE Price Index values at 15:30 GMT+3. News about inflation could cause significant turbulence in the gold market.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

The Dollar Rises Amid Accelerating Economic Growth in the United States

The American currency received support from strong data from the United States. Thus, in the third quarter, gross domestic product increased by 4.9% after increasing by 2.1% earlier, with a forecast of 4.2%, which was the largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2021, reflecting easing risks of a recession. At the same time, the positive dynamics of the indicator partially offsets the results of the hawkish policy of the US Federal Reserve: the regulator’s meeting will take place next week, which is also the reason for the current correction.

Optimism from faster growth rates of the American economy was partially offset by statistics on the labour market: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of October 20 increased from 200.0k to 210.0k, while experts expected 208.0k, and the number repeated requests for the week of October 13 — from 1.727 million to 1.790 million, with expectations at 1.740 million.

EUR/USD

According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the pair is consolidating near 1.0565, preparing to end the week with a slight decline. The day before, quotes managed to interrupt the active development of the bearish trend, while the news background remained ambiguous and investors assessed the results of the ECB meeting. As expected, the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, noting that further monetary policy will be determined by statistical data, which does not exclude a possible increase in the value in the future. At the same time, the ECB said that inflation in the region continues to decline, but will most likely remain above target levels for a long time.

The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0581, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0606. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0517, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0500.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Watch FXOpen's 23 - 27 October Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: THE YEN WEAKENS, NASDAQ ENTERS CORRECTION, GOLD STABILISES

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• USD/JPY: New High of the Year #usdjpy
• The NASDAQ Index Officially Enters Correction #nasdaq
• Price of Gold Stabilises Near Its 5-month Highs #gold
• Google report crashes stock price #google

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.




FXOpen YouTube


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#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Price of Oil in Tense Anticipation

Monday's opening came without any surprises. Despite the news that the Israeli army is moving to a new phase of the operation in Gaza, the price of Brent oil did not change much, trading started around the middle of the Friday candle.

The chart shows that the price of Brent oil has fluctuated between USD 86.60 and USD 89.10 since October 24th. At the same time, the MACD indicator shrank near the zero line, which is typical for flat markets. However, it can hardly be said that bidders are calm.

On the one hand, they are closely monitoring news from the Middle East, where escalation could provoke supply disruptions and sharply increase the price of oil. On Sunday, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the US sees an increased risk of the conflict spreading to other parts of the Middle East region.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is expected to make a decision on interest rates this week. The event is scheduled for Wednesday evening, and it can greatly change the current balance of supply and demand.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Remains At Risk While EUR/GBP Turns Green

GBP/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.2285 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8720 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.2200 support.
• There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2155 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8700 zone.
• There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.8720 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair attempted a fresh increase above 1.2200, as discussed in the previous analysis. However, the British Pound failed above 1.2285 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below 1.2200 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair 1.2155. Finally, there was a spike below the 1.2110 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2069 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

There was a minor move above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2284 swing high to the 1.2069 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near a key contracting triangle at 1.2155. The next major resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2284 swing high to the 1.2069 low at 1.2200.

A close above the 1.2200 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2285. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2350.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2110. If there is a downside break below the 1.2110 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2075 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2020. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2000 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Middle East Tensions and Fed Meeting Influence Oil Prices. Is $250 Per Barrel Likely?

Amidst rising tensions in the Middle East, oil markets have experienced volatility. Israel's deployment of ground forces into the Gaza Strip has not led to the expected surge in oil prices, as investors remain focused on the upcoming US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

Global benchmark Brent crude oil price saw a decline of 1.06%, falling to $89.52 per barrel. Simultaneously, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price dropped by 1.16%, reaching $84.55 per barrel.

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[FXOpen Trader]

Economic Calendar: BoE and Fed Meetings, Apple Earnings, and US Labour Data

On Wednesday (21:00 GMT+3), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Analysts' opinions are divided. Some believe that the surge in bond yields signals that the Fed will likely keep the rate at 5.5%. Others say strong GDP and PCE data released on Friday strengthened the case for the Fed to keep rates higher for an extended period. Therefore, one more rate hike may occur before this tightening cycle is over. The hawkish tone of the central bank may contribute to the growth of the US dollar and decline in the S&P 500 index, which has fallen over 10% since late July when it reached a one-year-high.

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[FXOpen Trader]

AMZN Pulls NASDAQ Up, Expecting Help from AAPL

Amazon's quarterly report provided a ray of light in a gloomy environment for the tech-heavy US stock market, as the NASDAQ index fell last week to levels last seen in May.

→ AMZN EPS: actual = USD 0.94, expected = USD 0.58
→ Gross revenue: actual = $143.5 billion, expected = $141 billion
→ For the Q4, AMZN expects revenue of USD 160-167 billion
→ Revenue from Amazon Web Services grew by 12.3% year on year
→ Advertising revenue increased by 26%

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[FXOpen Trader]

USD/JPY Analysis: Playing with Fire Continues

Yesterday, the Nikkei newspaper reported that the Bank of Japan is considering adjusting its yield curve control (YCC) policy.

This provoked a strengthening of the yen (1). The USD/JPY rate dropped to a two-week extreme of 148.8 per US dollar in anticipation of news from the Bank of Japan.

The news followed this morning (2). The Bank of Japan kept interest rates at -0.1% and also said the 1% ceiling on the benchmark 10-year yield would be an upper bound rather than a hard limit.

As a result of the Bank's decision, the USD/JPY rate returned to the area above 150 yen per US dollar.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.