Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD back at the forefront of demand: markets eye a new wave of risk

The EURUSD pair is hovering around 1.1387 on Tuesday. Risks of a US trade war weigh against the US dollar. Find out more in our analysis for 29 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair is poised to resume growth due to US trade risks
• China states it is not holding talks with the US, despite Washington’s claims
• Market risks are taking centre stage again
• EURUSD forecast for 29 April 2025: 1.1427 and 1.1442

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is holding near 1.1387. The currency market is poised to return to buying as external uncertainty surrounding US-China trade relations intensifies. Yesterday, China reiterated that it is not currently engaged in negotiations with Washington.

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that easing tensions depends on China, emphasising that Chinese exports to the US significantly exceed imports.

The market is now focused on upcoming US economic data due later this week. On Wednesday, the first estimate of Q1 2025 GDP will be released alongside the crucial core PCE inflation component – a key metric for the Federal Reserve. On Friday, labour market data for April will be published. These figures will provide investors with numerous signals for evaluating the prospects of the Fed’s monetary policy.

Should the data point to weakening economic indicators, expectations for an imminent monetary easing by the Federal Reserve would rise.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD breaks three-year highs

The GBPUSD rate continues to climb confidently, setting a new three-year high at 1.3443. Market participants are awaiting key US data today, including ADP employment figures and Q1 GDP. Find more details in our analysis for 30 April 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: ADP employment data and Q1 GDP figures will be released during the American session today
• Current trend: uptrend in place
• GBPUSD forecast for 30 April 2025: 1.3443 and 1.3300

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD pair surged to a three-year high, driven by expectations that the Bank of England will proceed more cautiously with rate cuts compared to other major central banks. Markets are currently pricing in around 85 basis points of easing for 2025, similar to the Fed’s outlook.

Today’s spotlight is on key US economic indicators, with April’s ADP employment report and the Q1 GDP reading scheduled for release. The ADP reading is expected to grow by 118 thousand, with GDP up 0.2%. Stronger-than-expected results could support the US dollar and lead to a pullback in the GBPUSD pair, while weaker data would likely fuel further gains for the pound.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) in the green: demand for safe-haven assets on the rise

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have risen to 3,260 USD. With elevated risk levels, the precious metal finds strong support. Discover more in our analysis for 5 May 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) is on the rise, driven by demand for safe-haven assets
• The market closely follows US-China trade tensions, awaiting concrete developments
• XAUUSD forecast for 5 May 2025: 3,276

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices climbed to 3,260 USD on Monday. Amid high uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks, demand for safe-haven assets is increasing. This is an environment in which gold traditionally thrives.

The core issue lies in the lack of clarity. US President Donald Trump claims China is inclined to strike a deal, while Beijing insists specific conditions must be met before any discussions can proceed. The ongoing holidays in China add further ambiguity.

Gold also finds support in the weakening of the US dollar, making the metal more attractive to investors using other currencies.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is set to hold its policy meeting this week. Although a rate cut would benefit gold, such a move is unlikely at this stage.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Markets hold breath ahead of Fed decision: EURUSD poised for growth

The EURUSD pair is regaining ground, with bulls aiming to test the 1.1495 resistance level. Discover more in our analysis for 6 May 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The ISM services PMI in the US rose in April, exceeding analyst expectations
• The Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, concluding on Wednesday, will be one of the week’s key events
• Most market participants do not expect any change in the interest rate
• EURUSD forecast for 6 May 2025: 1.1615

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is showing moderate recovery as buyers keep the pair above the key support level at 1.1265. The US ISM services PMI rose to 51.6 in April from 50.8 in March, beating the forecast of a drop to 50.6. Although a reading above 50.0 signals expansion, the upbeat data only briefly supported the US dollar.

The main focus of the week is the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting, which concludes on Wednesday. Investors are looking for signals regarding potential monetary easing. Despite strong US labour market data, most market players expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged. This supports a moderately bullish outlook for the EURUSD pair.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Wedge pattern on USDJPY chart – sellers gear up for downward move

The USDJPY rate is currently undergoing a correction but remains under pressure, with the price now at 142.99. Find more details in our analysis for 7 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s services PMI for April was revised upwards from 52.2 to 52.4
• New orders in the service sector reached the highest level in nearly a year, indicating strong domestic demand in Tokyo
• USDJPY forecast for 7 May 2025: 141.45

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is recovering after declining for three consecutive trading sessions, as investors continue to monitor trade negotiations between the US and Japan. Tokyo authorities aim to finalise a bilateral agreement by June, supporting interest in risk assets and currency markets.

Last week, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.5% as expected. However, the central bank downgraded its forecasts for economic growth and inflation, reinforcing market expectations that further monetary tightening is unlikely in the near term.

Meanwhile, Japan’s services PMI for April 2025 was revised upwards to 52.4 from a preliminary 52.2, marking the fastest pace of new order growth in nearly a year and indicating steady domestic demand. These figures could push the USDJPY pair lower as part of today’s forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD tumbles to the 1.1100 area; will the decline continue?

The EURUSD pair plunged to 1.1100 following the US-China agreement on reducing reciprocal tariffs. Today's spotlight is on the US inflation report. Find more details in our analysis for 13 May 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: today’s highlight is the US April inflation statistics, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release
• Current trend: a downtrend prevails
• EURUSD forecast for 13 May 2025: 1.1200 and 1.1000

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair continues to decline as the US dollar gains strength amid optimism over a de-escalation in the US-China trade dispute. The two countries agreed to a 90-day reduction in tariffs after talks in Geneva, signalling a meaningful thaw in trade tensions that had intensified last month.

Today, all eyes are on the US CPI data for April. The consensus forecasts suggest an increase of 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year. Any substantial deviation from these expectations could fuel heightened volatility in the EURUSD pair.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD climbs again: risk appetite drives sterling higher

The GBPUSD pair has risen confidently to 1.3294 as investors continue buying amid a favourable risk environment. Full details in today’s analysis for 14 May 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• GBPUSD resumes its upward movement and continues to appreciate
• UK inflation may exceed expectations, delaying potential Bank of England rate cuts
• GBPUSD forecast for 14 May 2025: 1.3319 and 1.3346

Fundamental analysis

GBPUSD strengthened to 1.3294 on Wednesday. Market sentiment improved following a temporary tariff-reduction agreement between the US and China, which encouraged demand for risk assets globally.

The pound is benefiting from this positive backdrop and from stabilising macroeconomic conditions. Inflation dynamics in the UK have improved, bolstered by stronger trade relations with the US and India.

However, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill noted that inflation in the UK could be higher than the Bank’s forecasts, potentially requiring elevated interest rates to be maintained longer than markets anticipate. Last week, Pill voted against a 25-basis-point rate cut.

Currently, markets are pricing in a 48-basis-point rate reduction by year-end. No changes are expected at the BoE’s June meeting.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY on the verge of reversal: Double Bottom may trigger a rally to 149.05

The USDJPY rate continues to decline as sellers gear up for another attempt to test the key support level. The price currently stands at 146.03. Discover more in our analysis for 15 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Weak US inflation data supported the Japanese yen
• The USDJPY pair remains under pressure amid ongoing global trade uncertainty
• USDJPY forecast for 15 May 2025: 149.05

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate has been declining for the third consecutive trading session. The US dollar is losing ground due to sustained uncertainty in global trade and speculation that the US administration favours a weaker dollar in the current negotiations. According to Washington, the relative weakness of Asian currencies gives regional exporters an unfair advantage over US companies.

Additional pressure came from weak US inflation data. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee stated that the Fed needs more information to assess how tariffs impact domestic prices. He noted that the central bank should not react to short-term stock market volatility or political commentary and cautioned against drawing quick conclusions about long-term trends amid high short-term fluctuations.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) at risk: the market does not need insurance

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 3,218 USD on Friday. The week ends with a loss of around 3%, with the outlook remaining highly uncertain. Find out more in our analysis for 16 May 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) quotes are closing the week down by about 3% due to declining interest in safe-haven assets
• The Federal Reserve may slow the pace of rate cuts, which is negative for gold
• XAUUSD forecast for 16 May 2025: 3,200 and 3,119

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are hovering around 3,218 USD per troy ounce at the end of the week. The precious metal is closing this period with a roughly 3% loss. Gold has temporarily lost its appeal as a safe-haven asset due to easing global trade tensions.

The US and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days – a temporary measure, yet one that helped ease fears about prolonged fallout from their trade conflict. Geopolitical risks also subsided, with the truce between India and Pakistan remaining stable.

Soft US inflation data typically supports gold. These figures have strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at least twice by the end of 2025.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell previously mentioned that inflation could become more volatile in the future due to persistent supply disruptions. This scenario may complicate efforts by global central banks to maintain price stability.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD reversed upwards – will the rally continue?

The EURUSD pair has formed a local upward reversal after bouncing off the daily support level at 1.1065, with further growth possible. Discover more in our analysis for 19 May 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: today, the market awaits eurozone inflation data for April, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release
• Current trend: upward movement is in progress
• EURUSD forecast for 19 May 2025: 1.1130 and 1.1265

Fundamental analysis

Investor attention is currently drawn to the UK-EU summit in London, where both sides aim to improve relations after years of tension following the 2016 Brexit vote. Constructive agreements may be reached.

As for the economic data, the market awaits April inflation statistics for the eurozone. The CPI is expected to rise by 0.6% month-on-month and by 2.2% year-on-year. Higher-than-expected inflation would push the pair higher, while weaker figures could trigger a downward reversal.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent keeps an eye on Iran’s nuclear program: everyone fears surprises

Brent is hovering at 65.53 USD per barrel on Tuesday. Market focus remains on developments involving Iran, dialogue with Russia, and China’s statistics. Discover more in our analysis for 20 May 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent prices edged higher and stabilised amid a heavy news flow
• China’s data and the Iran issue may influence commodity prices in the near term
• Brent forecast for 20 May 2025: 63.95 and 63.16

Fundamental analysis

Brent is trading around 65.53 USD per barrel on Tuesday. Prices are attempting to climb as the market reacts to uncertainty surrounding US-Iran nuclear negotiations. On Monday, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi warned that the talks would fail if Washington insists on a complete halt to uranium enrichment by Tehran.

Meanwhile, discussions about a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine are also unfolding. US President Donald Trump did not rule out ceasefire talks following his phone conversation with Russia’s leader. A potential truce could increase Russian oil exports if sanctions ease, which might cap further price gains.

Earlier, pressure on oil prices came from Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating, which raised concerns about the economic outlook for the world’s largest oil consumer. Sentiment also suffered from slowing industrial production and retail sales in China.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY crashes amid Japan’s export boom

The USDJPY pair continues to move within a strong bearish impulse, with the price currently at 143.57. Find more details in our analysis for 21 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s exports rose 2% year-on-year in April
• Japan’s trade balance for April showed a deficit of 115.85 billion yen
• Markets are watching for a possible meeting between the Japanese and US finance ministers
• USDJPY forecast for 21 May 2025: 141.45

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is falling for the seventh consecutive trading session, supported by strong Japanese trade data. In April, exports rose by 2% year-on-year to 9.157 trillion yen, marking the seventh straight month of export growth, although at the slowest pace in that period.

The yen also gained support from a narrowing trade deficit. In April 2025, Japan’s trade balance recorded a shortfall of 115.85 billion yen, significantly better than the 504.69 billion yen deficit a year earlier. However, the result still fell short of market expectations for a surplus.

Market participants are closely watching for a potential meeting between Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The talks are expected to address currency market developments, particularly the yen’s sharp appreciation.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) at two-week high: US budget prompts risk-off shift

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have climbed to 3,338 USD as investors are seeking safe-haven assets amid concerns over US fiscal policy. Discover more in our analysis for 22 May 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices have been rising for four consecutive trading sessions with no signs of slowing
• Demand for safe-haven assets grows amid mounting uncertainty in the US and the Middle East
• XAUUSD forecast for 22 May 2025: 3,346 and 3,358

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) has posted its fourth consecutive daily gain, reaching 3,338 USD per troy ounce. Investors are increasingly seeking reliable assets amid growing concerns about the US fiscal outlook.

Risk appetite declined following the release of a proposed US federal budget, which could further widen the already large deficit. Additional pressure came from Moody’s recent US credit rating downgrade, citing rising debt levels, alongside a cautious economic outlook from the Federal Reserve.

Geopolitical uncertainty also supports gold’s appeal, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East adding to market anxiety.

According to Chinese customs data, gold imports surged to an 11-month high in April, reaching 127.5 thousand tonnes (+73% m/m). The jump reflects strong demand and additional import quotas granted by the central bank amid rising trade tensions with the US.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD trapped in a Triangle: market holds breath before a breakout

The AUDUSD pair is rising after rebounding from support, with traders closely watching the 0.6495 resistance level. The price currently stands at 0.6433. Discover more in our analysis for 23 May 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Expectations of a Fed rate cut in the second half of 2025 support AUDUSD's current uptrend
• Traders anticipate a breakout from the consolidation range, which could trigger a strong directional move
• AUDUSD forecast for 23 May 2025: 0.6545

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate strengthens but remains confined within a sideways consolidation. The US dollar is under pressure due to ongoing fiscal risks and the lack of progress in trade negotiations. Additional support for the Australian currency came from expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the second half of 2025.

Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key rate by 25 basis points. Markets now price in over a 50% likelihood of a second rate cut at the next meeting in July.

Against this backdrop, AUDUSD trading remains mixed and volatile. The price is squeezed in a consolidation range with the upper boundary at 0.6495 and the lower one at 0.6360. Traders are closely monitoring this phase as such consolidations often end with a strong breakout.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD hits highest level since February 2022, pound easily outperforms US dollar

The GBPUSD pair surged to 1.3578, with strong UK retail sales data pushing the pound to a three-year high. Discover more in our analysis for 26 May 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• GBPUSD reached a three-year high, driven by strong data and geopolitical developments
• Markets expect only one more rate hike from the Bank of England before the end of the year
• GBPUSD forecast for 26 May 2025: 1.3593 and 1.3625

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD pair soared to 1.3578 on Monday, propelled by robust UK retail sales figures for April.

Warm spring weather encouraged consumer spending in April, with retail sales rising by 1.2% compared to March, well above the expected 0.2%.

Over the past week, the GBPUSD rate gained 1.5%, hitting its highest level since 24 February 2022 on Friday. Rising UK government bond yields have made the pound more attractive to foreign investors. However, concern remains over Britain's public finances, with the country currently holding the highest borrowing levels among developed economies. The yield on 30-year bonds surpassed 5.5% on Friday, despite an anticipated drop in energy bills.

An additional boost for the pound came from a UK-EU agreement easing some trade barriers and enhancing defence cooperation.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY rebounds from support – correction or start of a reversal?

The USDJPY rate is recovering, although the US dollar remains under pressure, with the price currently at 142.64. Discover more in our analysis for 27 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s inflation accelerated to 3.5%, the highest level in two years
• Rising inflation increases the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike
• USDJPY forecast for 27 May 2025: 144.95

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is correcting after rebounding from the key support level at 142.25. The US dollar remains under pressure as investors adjust their expectations for the Bank of Japan’s next moves, pricing in another rate hike amid steady inflation. According to last week’s data, Japan’s core inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 3.5%, its highest in two years, strengthening the case for further monetary policy tightening.

Meanwhile, Tokyo’s unemployment rate rose to 2.5% in March from 2.4% in February, while employment showed a slight decline. Japan’s Leading Economic Index, which signals short-term economic prospects, was revised up to 108.1 from 107.7 but remains at its lowest since December due to weak consumer sentiment. The Coincident Index, tracking current economic activity including industrial production, fell to 115.9, the lowest reading since November.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

FOMC reveals its hand – what is next for EURUSD after the minutes?

As markets await the release of the FOMC minutes, the EURUSD pair is forming a correction. Once this phase ends, the pair may resume its upward movement towards the 1.1415 mark. Find more details in our analysis for 28 May 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• FOMC meeting minutes release
• EURUSD forecast for 28 May 2025: 1.1415 and 1.1265

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 28 May 2025 focuses on the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the 6-7 May meeting. These documents are expected to provide deeper insight into the Fed’s stance on interest rates and economic risks.

At the latest meeting, the FOMC left the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, citing increased uncertainty and rising risks related to both inflation and unemployment. The minutes may shed light on the extent of the committee’s concern about a potential economic slowdown and inflationary pressures driven by trade tariffs and weaker GDP growth.

The Fed is assumed to maintain a wait-and-see approach and refrain from immediate action until more definitive economic signals emerge. Potential rate cuts may come no earlier than September and would depend on inflation and labour market dynamics.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) plummets as markets rush into risk

Gold (XAUUSD) prices dropped to 3,270 USD. The easing of tariff risks has dampened demand for safe-haven assets. Discover more in our analysis for 29 May 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) quotes are falling for the third consecutive day as risk appetite grows
• Strengthening of the US dollar adds to pressure on gold
• XAUUSD forecast for 29 May 2025: 3,244 USD

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) fell to 3,270 USD on Thursday, marking its third consecutive daily decline. The main trigger is the fading concern over tariffs, which has reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

The sell-off intensified following a ruling by the US Court of International Trade, which determined that President Donald Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing retaliatory tariffs on trade partners. The court ordered these measures to be cancelled and permanently blocked. The White House is expected to appeal, but for now, the decision deals a significant blow to the Trump administration’s economic policies.

The latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that the Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious stance as it assesses the impact of recent policy decisions, mainly those related to tariffs. The document also highlighted rising risks of inflation and unemployment.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY falls below 144.00 amid rising inflation in Japan

The USDJPY rate has dropped below the 144.00 mark as inflation in Japan accelerates and investors anticipate a rate hike from the central bank in July. Find more details in our analysis for 30 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Japan’s Consumer Price Index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in May
• Current trend: moving downwards
• USDJPY forecast for 30 May 2025: 143.00 and 144.75

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen is strengthening as inflation increases. Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in May, up from 3.4% in April and surpassing the 3.5% market forecast. This marks the highest inflation reading in two years and boosts expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at its July meeting.

Today, market participants are awaiting US inflation data, with the core PCE price index due during the American session. Forecasts anticipate a 0.1% monthly rise and a 2.5% year-on-year increase. Higher-than-expected inflation could support the US dollar, while a weaker reading would likely strengthen the yen further.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD starts the week steadily: all eyes on risk

The EURUSD pair is hovering around 1.1358 on Monday as investors assess risk levels at the start of a new week. Find out more in our analysis for 2 June 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD rate is edging up modestly as overall market sentiment remains weak
• Concerns about deteriorating global trade relations re-emerge
• EURUSD forecast for 2 June 2025: 1.1390 and 1.1424

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is trading close to 1.1358 at the start of the week and the new month. Market sentiment has deteriorated due to renewed concerns over global trade tensions.

On Friday, Donald Trump said he might introduce 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports starting from 4 June. Meanwhile, US-China relations have worsened again as Beijing rejected Washington’s claims of breaching the temporary trade agreement. This has cast doubt on the likelihood of further trade talks between the two nations.

Still, negotiations could resume as early as this week.

Market focus now shifts to fresh US economic data, particularly Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report for May.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team