Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to strengthen

Rising US jobless claims and a potential decline in GDP open the potential for XAUUSD growth to 2,790 USD. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 30 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US Q4 GDP: previously at 3.1%, projected at 2.7%
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 223 thousand, projected at 224 thousand
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 30 January 2025: 2,790 and 2,740

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD forecast for 30 January 2025 shows that XAUUSD prices are consolidating around 2,761 USD, and the pair could continue to form a growth wave in the future.

Today, the US will release Q4 GDP data, which is projected to decrease to 2.7%, down from the previous reading. Given that GDP is the aggregate value of all goods and services produced in a country, calculated only for end products, excluding the costs of raw materials, its decline may indicate an economic downturn.

US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

The previous reading was 223 thousand, and the forecast for 30 January 2024 appears rather optimistic, suggesting an increase in jobless claims to 224 thousand. This is a minor change, and the release of data that aligns with expectations will not have a significant impact on XAUUSD quotes.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY strengthens despite expectations of BoJ policy tightening

Although the USDJPY rate is undergoing a correction, the selling pressure remains. The price currently stands at 154.69. More details in our analysis for 31 January 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said further rate hikes are possible
• Tokyo core inflation accelerated to 2.5% in January
• US initial jobless claims decreased to 207 thousand
• US economy grew by 2.3% year-on-year in Q4 2024
• USDJPY forecast for 31 January 2025: 153.75 and 152.35

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is rising on Friday after rebounding from the 153.85 support level. Sellers’s attempts to strengthen the yen remain restrained despite growing expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike. On Thursday, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino reiterated that the BoJ is ready to continue tightening monetary policy if economic indicators and inflation align with forecasts.

Tokyo core inflation data confirmed the BoJ’s hawkish stance, with the rate accelerating to 2.5% in January, reaching an 11-month high. The Japanese economy received additional support from strong retail sales, recovering industrial production, and an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate.

At the same time, the US economy is sending mixed signals. Although initial jobless claims decreased by 16 thousand to 207 thousand, indicating a stable US labour market, economic growth rates in Q4 were lower than expected. The country’s GDP grew by 2.3% year-on-year, below the projected 2.6%.

US inflation continues to accelerate. The PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Federal Reserve, rose by 2.3% from 1.5% in Q3. The core PCE price index, excluding volatile components such as energy and food prices, increased by 2.5% in Q4, aligning with analysts' forecasts.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD: the pair opened the week with an upward gap

The USDCAD rate soared to 1.4800 on Monday due to tariffs imposed by the US on goods from Canada and other countries over the weekend. Discover more in our analysis for 3 February 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The US imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods
• Current trend: a strong uptrend
• USDCAD forecast for 3 February 2025: 1.4700 and 1.4900

Fundamental analysis

The Canadian dollar plunged sharply on Monday after US President Donald Trump introduced new tariffs on major trading partners last weekend. The US imposed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10% tariffs on imports from China.

In response, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs, and Mexico signalled that it would consider introducing its own duties on US goods. China, in turn, said it intended to file a WTO case. Investors reacted negatively to growing trade tensions, with the US dollar rising and global stock index futures declining.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: the pair is recovering after the fall

The EURUSD rate returned to 1.0350 as part of a correction after declining at the market opening on Monday. This week, market participants are awaiting US labour market statistics. Find out more in our analysis for 4 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants are awaiting US labour market statistics this week, including ADP data, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate
• Current trend: a downtrend
• EURUSD forecast for 4 February 2025: 1.0350 and 1.0200

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair recovered slightly after the fall caused by the introduction of US restrictive tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China. Investors are concerned about the continuation of trade wars, which may also affect the eurozone. US President Donald Trump earlier promised to consider imposing tariffs on European goods.

This week, the market will focus on US employment statistics, with ADP data, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate scheduled for release. Stronger-than-expected data will support the US dollar, potentially pushing the EURUSD pair lower. Conversely, weaker data could drive growth in the euro.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to soar to new price highs

The increase in US nonfarm employment does not strengthen the US dollar significantly, with Gold prices continuing their ascent to 2,880 USD. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 5 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US ADP nonfarm employment change: previously at 122 thousand, projected at 148 thousand
• The US services PMI: previously at 56.8, projected at 52.8
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 5 February 2025: 2,830 and 2,880

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD forecast for 5 February 2025 shows that XAUUSD prices have broken above the 2,850 USD level, with the pair likely to continue its upward momentum.

The US nonfarm employment change is a national employment report from ADP, which tracks changes in nonfarm jobs based on data from about 400 thousand business sources. The report is published two days before official US employment data. The reading is currently projected at 148 thousand. If the actual data aligns with expectations, the market may see increased volatility. Conversely, worse-than-forecast data may weaken the USD against Gold.

The US services PMI is expected to decline to 52.8. A stronger-than-expected PMI reading will provide some support to the US dollar.

The XAUUSD price forecast appears rather optimistic as the quotes have the potential to reach 2,880 USD.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY is under pressure amid expectations of a BoJ rate hike

The USDJPY rate is declining for the fourth consecutive trading session, with the price currently at 152.44. Discover more in our analysis for 6 February 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Expectations of another Bank of Japan interest rate hike are rising
• Data showed Tokyo wages rose by 0.6% in December
• Japan’s nominal wages reached the highest level in nearly 30 years
• USDJPY forecast for 6 February 2025: 150.75 and 149.40

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate fell to an eight-week low amid expectations of another Bank of Japan interest rate hike. Minister of Finance Katsunobu Kato said that inflation could rise further, increasing the likelihood of monetary policy tightening and driving the current decline in the currency pair.

Additionally, the latest data showed strong wage growth, with Tokyo’s figures rising for the second consecutive month, up 0.6% in December, while analysts expected a 0.7% decline. Nominal wage growth hit the highest level in nearly 30 years, adding to inflationary pressures.

These factors strengthen expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates in 2025. The increasing contrast with the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of two rate cuts before the end of the year may support the yen’s strength as part of today’s USDJPY forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises ahead of crucial US labour market data

XAUUSD prices are rising after rebounding from the support level, with the quotes currently at 2,863 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 7 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• XAUUSD quotes are rising for the sixth consecutive week amid increased demand for Gold
• Increased buying is driven by concerns caused by trade uncertainty and the release of the US employment report
• XAUUSD forecast for 7 February 2025: 2,885 and 2,915

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have been rising for the sixth consecutive week as demand for Gold has increased amid the current trade uncertainty. Investors are actively buying up the precious metal ahead of the crucial US employment report. According to traders, Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with analysts revising their forecasts upwards, expecting sustainable growth amid US political hyperactivity and massive hedging by global central banks and investors.

Markets are now focused on the US employment data, which may provide insight into the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. An economy with full employment, steady growth, and easing inflation will allow the Fed to continue its rate-cutting cycle. Markets expect the regulator to lower the rate by another 100 basis points in the process. This will inevitably lead to a decline in US Treasury bond yields and a cheaper cost of owning Gold.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: the pair declines after the US labour market statistics

The EURUSD rate edged down to 1.0300 following Friday’s release of mixed US employment data. Discover more in our analysis for 10 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech today
• Current trend: the downtrend
• EURUSD forecast for 10 February 2025: 1.0200 and 1.0350

Fundamental analysis

The US labour market statistics for January became available last Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. The Nonfarm Payrolls data came in slightly worse than expected at 143 thousand jobs, below the forecast of 170 thousand. Conversely, the unemployment rate data exceeded expectations, showing a decline to 4.0% (previously at 4.1%).

The EURUSD pair reacted to the US data release with a moderate decline, falling to the price area around 1.0300. Today, market participants will focus on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech, which could shed light on the outlook for the regulator’s monetary policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY: the pair found support at 151.00

The USDJPY rate is consolidating in the price area around 152.00, with the market focus on the Fed chairman’s speech before the US Senate today. Find out more in our analysis for 11 February 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech before the US Senate
• Current trend: the downtrend
• USDJPY forecast for 11 February 2025: 151.00 and 152.50

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen has been gradually strengthening its position at the beginning of the year. Bank of Japan’s Board member Naoki Tamura said recently that the BoJ should raise the benchmark interest rate to at least 1% in the second half of 2025.

This view was supported by the recent data on wages and household spending in Japan, which showed a stronger-than-expected increase, bolstering expectations of a BoJ rate hike.

Investors are currently awaiting the release of Japan’s GDP and inflation statistics next week to assess the future outlook for the BoJ monetary policy. Today, the market will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech before the US Senate, in which he could announce the regulator’s further plans.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) corrected from highs ahead of US inflation data

XAUUSD quotes are undergoing a local correction after reaching a new all-time high of 2,942 USD. Today, the focus remains on US inflation statistics. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 12 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: US consumer inflation data will be released today – the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Current trend: the uptrend
• XAUUSD forecast for 12 February 2025: 2,850 and 2,942

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are moderately correcting after reaching a new all-time high of 2,942 USD. Market participants will focus on US inflation data for January during the American trading session today, with the CPI scheduled for release. The indicator is projected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year.

The Federal Reserve considers inflation data when deciding whether to change interest rates. Weaker-than-forecast statistics will put pressure on the USD and help strengthen Gold. Conversely, stronger figures will support the US dollar and cause XAUUSD quotes to decline.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent reversed downwards, with prices falling below 75.00 USD

Brent prices are declining, falling to the support area at 75.00 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 13 February 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels last week
• OPEC+ maintained its oil demand growth forecast at 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025
• Current trend: moving downwards
• Brent forecast for 13 February 2025: 74.00 and 75.00

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday’s US inflation data showed rising inflation risks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 0.5% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year (expected at 0.4% and 2.9%, respectively). Accelerating inflation may negatively impact US economic growth, putting pressure on oil prices.

Brent was also affected by the release of the latest EIA report on US crude oil inventories. The data showed that oil stocks increased by 4.1 million barrels last week, exceeding the expected growth of 3.0 million. OPEC+ maintained its oil demand growth forecast at 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: the pair rises amid talks on Ukraine

The EURUSD rate rose to the price area near 1.0500, driven by the beginning of negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine. Find out more in our analysis for 14 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the market is awaiting the eurozone’s GDP data for Q4 2024 today
• Current trend: upward momentum
• EURUSD forecast for 14 February 2025: 1.0400 and 1.0530

Fundamental analysis

The euro rate rose above a two-week high of 1.0400 after US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum to renegotiate reciprocal tariffs with the eurozone without immediately imposing new tariffs, easing concerns about a sharp deterioration of trade relations with the US.

Optimism about the euro currency also rose on hopes of an end to the military conflict in Ukraine, as Donald Trump promised to make every effort to start a peaceful settlement and held talks with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine.

Today, market participants will focus on the eurozone’s GDP statistics for Q4 2024. The indicator is expected to remain unchanged quarter-on-quarter and rise by 0.9% year-on-year. Stronger-than-expected data will support the euro, with the EURUSD pair likely to continue its ascent. Conversely, weaker figures could send the pair into a correction.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to strengthen after a correction

Gold continues to rally towards 2,950 ahead of FOMC members’ speeches. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 17 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• A speech by FOMC representative Patrick T. Harker
• A speech by FOMC representative Michelle Bowman
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 17 February 2025: 2,877 and 2,950

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD analysis shows that Gold prices have corrected towards 2,876 USD, with the pair likely to form another growth wave in the future.

On of the main news for XAUUSD (Gold) is that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President and FOMC representative Patrick T. Harker is expected to deliver a speech today, 17 February 2025. Earlier, Harker spoke about possible rate cuts in 2025 but emphasised that there was no need for this at present and that further decisions would depend on incoming economic data.

FOMC member Michelle Bowman’s report is scheduled after Harker’s speech. Earlier, in September 2024, she advocated for a 0.25 percentage point rate cut, which reflects her cautious approach to monetary policy changes.

Given the current economic situation, it is worth paying attention to inflation, the labour market, and the Federal Reserve’s possible future actions. Bowman’s speech may provide additional signals about the direction of US monetary policy and adjust the market sentiment.

Based on Bowman’s previous statements and the current economic conditions, she is expected to underscore the need for a balanced approach to interest rate changes, taking into account both the risks of overheating the economy and the need to maintain its sustainable growth.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Japan’s GDP growth adds to pressure on USDJPY

The USDJPY rate is strengthening after rebounding from the 151.20 support level. Discover more in our analysis for 18 February 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s economy grew by 0.7% in Q4 2024
• BoJ interest rate hike in March remains in question
• USDJPY forecast for 18 February 2025: 151.60 and 150.20

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is on the rise after falling for three consecutive trading sessions as traders focus on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes. The regulator is adopting a wait-and-see approach, while the market is more focused on the prospects of an interest rate cut.

Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair remains under pressure after unexpectedly strong GDP growth data from Japan. Monday’s quarterly statistics showed that the country’s economy grew by 0.7% in Q4 2024, up from 0.4% in the previous quarter and above the forecast of 0.3%. GDP rose 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and exceeding 1.7% in Q3.

The data reinforces hawkish sentiment towards the BoJ monetary policy. While there is still uncertainty over a potential rate hike in March, further tightening of monetary conditions during the year is considered quite likely, which may help the yen strengthen as part of today’s USDJPY forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Geopolitical uncertainty supports demand for Gold (XAUUSD)

XAUUSD prices are poised to break above the key resistance level at 2,940 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 19 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Markets are awaiting the release of the US Federal Reserve minutes, which may affect Gold prices
• Donald Trump’s trade policy supports demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset
• XAUUSD forecast for 19 February 2025: 2,065 and 3,030

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are undergoing a minor correction after a two-day rise. Gold remains under pressure after reaching record highs and in anticipation of new negotiations between the US and Russia to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Investors continue to monitor the geopolitical situation as uncertainty around the outcome of the talks restrains price movements.

Markets also focus on the upcoming release of the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes. If the regulator’s rhetoric remains tough, Gold may plunge due to higher yields on dollar assets. At the same time, Donald Trump’s trade policy continues to drive demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent is trading below 72.00 USD following the OPEC+ meeting

Brent quotes are declining, with sellers testing the 75.50 USD support level. Discover more in our analysis for 20 February 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• According to the American Petroleum Institute, US crude oil inventories rose by 3.34 million barrels
• There are downside risks for Brent as part of the implementation of the reversal pattern
• Brent forecast for 20 February 2025: 74.35 and 73.15

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are plunging after rising for three days. The pressure primarily comes from the American Petroleum Institute data, which recorded an increase in US crude oil reserves. According to the API estimates, the country’s oil stocks grew by 3.34 million barrels in the week ended on 14 February.

Brent quotes rose earlier, driven by reports that the G-7 countries were discussing the possibility of strengthening the mechanism to limit Russia’s oil prices. Additionally, traders are closely following the negotiations between the US and Russia on the situation in Ukraine, analysing the incoming information in search of prerequisites for easing sanctions that affect the energy sector.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY forecast: the pair declines amid rising inflation in Japan

The USDJPY rate plunged below 150.00 amid the release of Japan’s stronger-than-expected inflation statistics for January. Discover more in our analysis for 21 February 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Japan’s national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.0% in January
• Current trend: the downtrend
• USDJPY forecast for 21 February 2025: 150.00 and 148.60

Fundamental analysis

According to today’s statistics, Japan’s annual national inflation rate rose by 4.0% in January 2025 from 3.6% in the previous month, marking the highest level since early 2023. The core annual CPI increased by 3.2% from 3.0% in December.

The USDJPY quotes fell to the price area around 149.00 during the Asian session, hitting a two-month low. The Japanese currency is strengthening amid rising GDP and inflation in the country, with investors expecting the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy further.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD is in positive territory again: another rise is likely

The EURUSD pair continues to rise and has already reached 1.0509. The market is interested in risk again. Discover more in our analysis for 24 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair rose amid improved expectations for the eurozone
• The market is interested in risk but is still cautious
• EURUSD forecast for 24 February 2025: 1.0529

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate strengthened, reaching 1.0509.

The euro fully recouped Friday’s losses after the conservative Christian democrats won the German elections. The preliminary elections were largely in line with investor expectations.

The market is now focused on the timing of forming a coalition. Conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz intends to create one within the next two months. Strong and cohesive management is considered essential to push through much-needed fiscal reforms, especially amid economic stagnation in Germany and trade tensions over US tariff policy.

Reform of the debt system, which has restrained investments for years, is expected to support both the eurozone’s stocks and the EUR rate.

The latest data showed that private sector activity in the eurozone remained stable in February. The PMI decreased to 50.2 points, below the expected 50.5.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) corrects after record peaks, but demand for the precious metal remains strong

XAUUSD prices are declining after rebounding from the 2,950 USD resistance level. Find more details in our analysis for 25 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Global economic risks remain high, fuelling the upward momentum in Gold
• All eyes are on the release of the US PCE price index
• Investors expect the Federal Reserve to postpone an interest rate cut
• XAUUSD forecast for 25 February 2025: 2,970 and 3,000

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are edging down today after reaching a record high on Monday. Demand for the precious metal remains as investors seek safe-haven assets amid market uncertainty. Gold was additionally supported by substantial inflows into the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund. Experts note that as long as global economic risks remain high, XAUUSD will maintain its upward momentum.

A crucial factor for the market will be the release of the US PCE price index on Friday, which is a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to postpone rate cuts until the next quarter despite forecasts of a potential policy easing as early as March.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD forecast: the pair climbed to 1.0500

The EURUSD rate reached 1.0500 amid positive sentiment after the German parliamentary elections. Find out more in our analysis for 26 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Germany’s GDP declined by 0.2% in Q4 2024, as expected
• Current trend: consolidating in a sideways range
• EURUSD forecast for 26 February 2025: 1.0400 and 1.0530

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is rising moderately after the conservative Christian Democrats won the German elections. Investors perceived the election outcome positively and are now interested in the details of how the new government plans to stimulate the growth and development of Europe’s largest economy.

Tomorrow, market participants are awaiting US GDP data for Q4 2024 and the report from the latest ECB monetary policy meeting. Investors hope to see hints about the regulator’s further plans: whether the ECB will continue to cut rates or it is poised to pause the monetary policy easing cycle.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team