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Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Gold (XAUUSD) continues its upward rally; price climbs above 2,650 USD

The XAUUSD price reached a new all-time high this morning at 2,670 USD. The trend for gold remains upward, though a downward correction may start soon – read about it in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 25 September 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
  • Market focus: gold is steadily rising following the US Fed rate cut
  • Current trend: a strong uptrend is underway
  • XAUUSD price forecast for 25 September 2024: 2,640 and 2,700
Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are steadily rising, reaching a new all-time high of 2,670 USD after the US Fed cut its interest rate by 0.50% last week. The onset of the rate-cut cycle is putting pressure on the US dollar.

Gold’s growth is also supported by weak economic data from the US – Yesterday’s Consumer Confidence index from the Conference Board was worse than expected: instead of the anticipated 103.9 points, the index came in at 98.7. As a result, the precious metal closed the day with solid gains against the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
AUDUSD strengthens due to China’s stimulus measures

AUDUSD is regaining some of its lost ground after falling more than 1% the previous day. Read more details in our analysis for 26 September 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points
  • Support for the Chinese economy stimulates demand for Australian exports, which helps AUDUSD to strengthen
  • The Australian Consumer Price Index declined to 2.7% in August, falling within the central bank’s target range
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a tight policy, keeping the interest rate at 4.35% despite the falling inflation rate
  • AUDUSD forecast for 26 September 2024: 0.6910 and 0.7017
Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate rose on Thursday after bouncing from the support level at 0.6815. According to analysts, the Australian dollar is strengthening due to China’s stimulus package, which may boost demand in Australia’s largest export market.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-on-year in August 2024, below market forecasts of 2.8% and worse than July’s 3.5%. This is the lowest inflation rate since August 2021 and the first time it has fallen within the central bank’s target range in three years. The inflation decline resulted from the energy bill compensation programme, which led to a 17.9% fall in electricity prices and a reduction in the cost of motor fuel.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the key rate at 4.35% at its September meeting and indicated that the current policy rate could be maintained for an extended period. However, the current slowdown in inflation reinforces expectations of a rate cut by the end of the year. Governor Michele Bullock has indicated that interest rates will remain unchanged for now. This hawkish stance sets the Reserve Bank of Australia apart from other central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, which has begun to ease its monetary policy to support the economy. For today’s AUDUSD forecast, this may support the pair’s growth.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
NZDUSD forecast: the New Zealand dollar continues to lose ground against the US dollar

Rising PCE and Michelle Bowman’s speech could support the US dollar - read more in our analysis for 27 September 2024.

NZDUSD forecast: key trading points
  • US Core PCE (YoY): Previously 2.6%, Forecasted 2.7%
  • Speech by Michelle Bowman, member of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
  • CFTC NZD Net Speculative Positions: Previously -1.9K
  • NZDUSD forecast for 27 September 2024: 0.6222 and 0.6140
Fundamental analysis

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) is an economic indicator measuring changes in the cost of goods and services consumed by US households (excluding food and energy prices due to their high volatility). The index is one of the most important inflation indicators in the US, which the Federal Reserve System uses to assess economic conditions and make decisions on monetary policy.

The previous value was 2.6% on an annualised basis. The forecast for 27 September 2024 suggests it may increase by 0.1% to 2.7%. Such expectations boost optimism among market participants, although the data may differ significantly. If the published statistics exceed forecasts, it will provide additional support to the US dollar and cause a decline in the NZDUSD exchange rate.

Michelle Bowman, a member of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Fed’s Board of Governors, is scheduled to deliver a speech. Her report may contain data on future US monetary policy.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly report analyses the volume of speculative positions held by non-commercial traders in US futures markets. It reflects the difference between traders’ long and short NZD positions on the Chicago and New York trading floors. The CFTC report is published every Friday and covers data from as of Tuesday of the current week.

The fundamental analysis for 27 September 2024 shows a notable decrease in positions in the last reporting period, indicating the likelihood of a trend reversal. However, the forecast remains uncertain until the actual data is published.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EURUSD rises amid US inflation slowdown

The EURUSD rate is strengthening but remains at a strong resistance level of 1.1200. Read more in our analysis for 30 September 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index rose by 0.1% in August, while the annual growth was 2.2%
  • The Core PCE index increased by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in August
  • Initial jobless claims fell to 218k, a 4-month low
  • The likelihood of the Fed rate cut by 50 basis points decreased to 54%, and a cut by 25 basis points increased to 46%
  • EURUSD forecast for 30 September 2024: 1.1222
Fundamental analysis

EURUSD is slightly higher on Monday as the US dollar remained under pressure amid poor economic data reinforcing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.1% in August compared to July, while the annualised growth rate was the lowest since February 2021, at 2.2%, versus the forecasted 2.3%.

The Core PCE (Core Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index, which does not include food and energy prices, also rose 0.1% in August from the previous month and increased by 2.7% annually. The Core PCE index is the Fed’s key indicator to assess inflation risks.

At the same time, data on jobless claims demonstrated the labour market’s resilience. The number of initial applications for benefits decreased by 4,000 to 218,800, the lowest level for the last four months. Analysts had forecasted an increase to 223,400.

Investors await the September US employment report for further signals about the Fed’s policy. The probability of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut at the next meeting fell to 54.0% from 60.3%, while the odds of a 25-point cut rose to 46.0% from 39.7%. Given the weakness of the US dollar and the regulator’s subsequent actions, today’s EURUSD forecast still holds potential for a breakthrough of the 1.1200 level.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
USDJPY develops upward momentum: the dollar has become the market favourite

USDJPY remains on the upside. Powell and Ishiba supported the USD. Read more in our USDJPY analysis for 1 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points
  • The USDJPY pair has been ‘in the plus’ for the second consecutive day
  • Powell’s comments have reinforced support for the US dollar
  • USDJPY forecast for 1 October 2024: 144.47
Fundamental analysis

On 1 October 2024, the USDJPY rose to 144.29, marking the second session in a row with the yen declining against the dollar.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided support to the US dollar with his comments, signaling that a rapid reduction of interest rates in the US is not expected. Powell indicated that the Fed might opt for a 25 basis point rate cut in its two remaining meetings this year. The Fed has shifted its outlook from a ‘hard’ rate stance to a softer, more adaptable approach, leading the market to reevaluate its position.

In Japan, political comments from Shigeru Ishiba, former defence minister, added pressure on the yen. Ishiba emphasised that Japan's fiscal policies should remain flexible, reflecting the nation's current economic conditions.

The USDJPY outlook continues to favour the US dollar, and further gains are anticipated.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
Gold (XAUUSD) reverses down from resistance at 2,670 USD

Gold (XAUUSD) experienced a reversal after attempting to break through the resistance at 2,670 USD. Today, market participants will shift their focus to the US labour market data from ADP, which could significantly impact the XAUUSD outlook. Read more in our analysis for today, 2 October 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
  • Market focus: market participants are awaiting today's Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) statistics on the US labour market, which will serve as a potential signal for the next moves in XAUUSD
  • Current trend: a correction within the uptrend is underway
  • XAUUSD forecast for 2 October 2024: 2,685 and 2,630
Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are currently in a moderate downward correction after reaching an all-time high of 2,685 USD last week. Yesterday, XAUUSD prices surged due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Today's employment data from ADP is expected to reveal 120,000 new jobs. If the data falls below the forecast, it could pressure the USD and strengthen gold, signalling a bullish trend for XAUUSD. Conversely, if job growth exceeds expectations, it would bolster the US dollar, contributing to a bearish XAUUSD prediction and potentially signalling a decline in gold prices.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
Silver (XAGUSD) corrects down from resistance at 32.30 USD

The XAGUSD price failed to overcome the resistance at 32.30 USD yesterday and entered a downward correction. Tomorrow, market participants will focus on US labour market data. Read about it in our XAGUSD analysis for today, 3 October 2024.

Silver forecast: key trading points
  • Market focus: market participants are awaiting tomorrow’s US labour market statistics
  • Current trend: a local correction is underway within the uptrend
  • XAGUSD forecast for 3 October 2024: 32.30 and 31.00
Silver fundamental analysis

Silver (XAGUSD) remains in a strong daily uptrend, fuelled by the US Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates by 0.50% during the September meeting. This cycle of rate cuts is weakening the US dollar, supporting both gold and silver prices.

Market participants are closely watching US employment data for insights. The ADP report on Wednesday showed an increase of 143,000 jobs. However, Friday’s upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate figures will be crucial. A decline in employment could weigh on the USD and provide bullish momentum for silver. At the same time, stronger-than-expected job growth could support the USD, potentially triggering a deeper correction in XAGUSD.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
USDJPY halts growth as the market pauses for further developments

USDJPY growth halted on Friday as the market paused and awaits further developments. More details and insights are available in our USDJPY analysis and forecast for today, 4 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points
  • The USDJPY pair is consolidating
  • The market paused following a 3% decline in the yen over the past week
  • USDJPY forecast for 4 October 2024: 145.22 and 143.2
Fundamental analysis

On Friday, the USDJPY rate reached a high of 146.27 before stabilising. The Japanese yen has slightly recovered after its sharp decline of over 3% against the US dollar, driven by a shift in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance, which softened its outlook on interest rates.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated that current economic conditions do not justify a rate hike. Meanwhile, the yen faced additional pressure from the strong appreciation of the US dollar. Recent US economic data signals that the Federal Reserve may not reduce interest rates as aggressively as initially expected.

The overall USDJPY forecast remains neutral as the market assesses these fundamental factors.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
USDJPY: the strong US labour market supports growth in the pair

The USDJPY rate is approaching the 149.35 resistance level amid uncertainty regarding the BoJ policy. Discover more in our analysis for 7 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points
  • The number of US jobs increased by 254,000 in September, marking the highest gain over the past six months
  • The likelihood of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut decreased to 4.3%
  • Japan’s Leading Economic Index fell to its lowest level since October 2020
  • USDJPY forecast for 7 October 2024: 145.95, 144.30, and 142.68
Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate has decreased significantly since last week’s surge. The yen came under pressure due to statements from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, who called for caution regarding further BoJ interest rate hikes, considering the current economic conditions.

The additional weakening of the yen is caused by the strong US employment report released on Friday. The US economy added 254,000 jobs in September, showing the most substantial growth over the past six months and reducing market expectations of a potential significant interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut in November decreased to 4.3%, while the odds of a softer 25-basis-point reduction increased to 95.7%. Such expectations in today’s USDJPY forecast may prompt buyers to break above the 149.35 resistance level.

Japan’s Leading Economic Index, which evaluates the prospects for the months ahead, decreased to 106.7 points in August 2024 from 109.3 in July, reaching its lowest level since October 2020. Japan’s Coincident Index, which includes data such as production output, employment, and retail sales, dropped to 113.5 in August from 117.2 a month earlier, marking the lowest reading since February.

Traders are currently focusing on the upcoming wage data in Japan, which may impact inflationary expectations and the BoJ’s monetary policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
Brent declines moderately following a surge to 81.00 USD

Brent prices surged to 81.00 USD amid increasing tensions in the Middle East. Growth may continue after a minor correction. Find out more in our Brent analysis for today, 8 October 2024.

Brent forecast: key trading points
  • US data: the market awaits the API crude oil stock report today
  • Current trend: correcting as part of the uptrend
  • Brent forecast for 8 October 2024: 81.00 and 77.00
Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes are experiencing a strong upward rally (rising by about 10% in a week) following escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is set to release US crude oil stock data today. A decline in inventories may support Brent prices, while an increase may conversely push the asset price down.

The market is also awaiting US inflation statistics this week, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) due on Thursday and Friday. Oil will likely react to the US stock market’s response to inflation data. A rise will propel Brent’s price, while a decrease will push it down.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
USDJPY is in a consolidation phase: the market requires new signals

The USDJPY pair has been holding in a range for the third day. Investors are cautious. Find out more in our analysis for 9 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points
  • The USDJPY pair has started to consolidate
  • Investors are conserving strength in anticipation of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes
  • USDJPY forecast for 9 October 2024: 146.36, 144.20, and 143.60
Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is stable, hovering around 148.34 on Wednesday.

Although interesting signals emerge, Japan’s domestic statistics do not affect the JPY trajectory. The Tankan sentiment index rose to 7 points in October, above the forecasted 6, which is a positive signal for Japan’s economy.

Investors are awaiting the release of the previous US Federal Reserve meeting minutes today to gain insights into the regulator’s true intentions regarding the future of interest rates. Current expectations now suggest two rate cuts before the end of the year, of 25 basis points each. The minutes will reveal whether this perspective will persist or be revised to a more aggressive stance.

The USDJPY forecast appears neutral.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EURUSD appears weak: US inflation data ahead

The EURUSD pair declined markedly. The market believes in the US dollar’s “exceptionalism”. Discover more in our analysis for 10 October 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points
  • The EURUSD pair fell to a low seen on 13 August
  • The market increasingly favours the US dollar
  • EURUSD forecast for 10 October 2024: 1.0905
Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating around 1.0943 on Thursday.

This is the euro’s lowest level since 13 August. As they say on the stock market, investors were again drawn to the idea of the US currency’s “exceptionalism”.

According to the latest US Federal Reserve meeting minutes released yesterday, the regulator remains focused on maintaining the health of the labour market. The US economy is growing strongly, providing solid support for the USD position.

Interesting US inflation data for September will be released today. The weekly jobless claims report is also worth noting.

The EURUSD forecast remains cautious for now.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
Gold (XAUUSD) reversed upwards from 2,600 USD

XAUUSD price has completed a downward correction, with the chart showing an upward reversal. The market will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. More details and insights are available in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 11 October 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
  • Market focus: market participants are awaiting today’s US inflation statistics, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release
  • Current trend: the pair is trading in an uptrend
  • USD forecast for 11 October 2024: 2,630 and 2,670
Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have completed a downward correction, receiving active support from buyers near 2,600 USD. Gold continues to attract demand from global central banks and investors, with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding to its appeal.

Yesterday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data broadly aligned with market expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is due today. A weaker-than-expected reading could exert pressure on the USD and help strengthen gold. Conversely, a higher-than-expected figure would support the US dollar, potentially pushing XAUUSD prices lower.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
Gold (XAUUSD) continues its ascent, rising above 2,650 USD

XAUUSD price has completed a downward correction and decisively reversed upwards. The price is expected to continue ascending and potentially hit a new all-time high of 2,685 USD. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 14 October 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
  • Market focus: last week’s US inflation statistics came out roughly in line with forecasts
  • Current trend: trading in an uptrend
  • XAUUSD forecast for 14 October 2024: 2,630 and 2,685
Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have completed a downward correction and reversed upwards in line with the trend, receiving active support from buyers at around 2,600 USD. Gold is in demand from global central banks and investors, with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding to its appeal.

Last week’s US inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), roughly aligned with forecasts. The stock market responded to the released statistics with a rise, and gold also strengthened against the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EURUSD declines for the third consecutive week

The EURUSD rate continues to edge down, falling below 1.0900. Discover more in our analysis for 15 October 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points
  • Markets estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in November at 86.8%
  • The ECB is expected to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%
  • EURUSD forecast for 15 October 2024: 1.0890 and 1.0850
Fundamental analysis

The euro continues to trade under pressure from strong US labour market data as markets expect the Fed to reduce interest rates at a more measured pace.

At its Thursday meeting, the ECB is expected to lower the interest rate from 3.50% to 3.25%. The projected rate cut pressures the European currency, pushing the EURUSD pair down.

Today, the market will focus on the euro area Bank Lending Survey (BLS), industrial production growth rates, and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. Depending on the data released, volatility in the EURUSD pair may increase sharply.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
USDJPY: BoJ’s uncertain stance and weak data put pressure on the yen

The USDJPY rate rose slightly on Wednesday but remains below the resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 16 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points
  • Seiji Adachi’s speech did not significantly impact the volatility of the USDJPY pair
  • According to the BoJ official, interest rate hikes should be gradual to avoid the risk of deflation
  • Japan’s machinery orders fell by 1.9% in August
  • USDJPY forecast for 16 October 2024: 150.22, 151.30, and 153.22
Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate continues to test the 149.45 resistance level. However, buyers have yet to secure a position above it. The speech by BoJ official Seiji Adachi, which could have shed light on the BoJ’s future monetary policy moves, did not significantly impact the currency pair’s movements.

In his speech, Adachi said that the interest rate should be raised gradually to avoid the risk of deflation. He noted that the Japanese economy has already created conditions for normalising monetary policy, but slowing global demand requires a thorough assessment. The regulator’s official also emphasised that it is necessary to maintain a loose financial policy until inflation reaches a stable level.

Meanwhile, machinery orders in Japan decreased by 1.9% in August 2024, although analysts expected a 1.5% increase. This represents the fifth contraction this year. Orders declined by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly contrasting with the 8.7% growth in July. Therefore, this data within today’s USDJPY forecast may exert additional pressure on the yen.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
AUDUSD rises on positive employment data

The AUDUSD rate remains above the EMA-200 line, thanks to the stable Australian economy. Discover more in our analysis for 17 October 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points
  • Analysts expect the RBA not to lower interest rates until the first half of next year
  • The Australian economy added 64,100 jobs in September, well above the forecast of 25,000
  • Australia’s labour force participation rate increased to a record 67.2% in September
  • AUDUSD forecast for 17 October 2024: 0.6645
Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate rose on Thursday after falling for three consecutive days. A robust employment report supported the Australian dollar, reinforcing the hawkish outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy.

The data showed that the Australian economy added 64,100 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the forecast of 25,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The labour force participation rate increased to a record 67.2% in September, up from 67.1% in August and above analysts’ forecasts of 67.1%. The results indicate the labour market’s resilience, reducing the likelihood of an RBA interest rate cut in the coming months.

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned that the central bank remains committed to controlling inflation amid steady price growth. According to analysts (given the strengthening labour market), the regulator will not lower interest rates until the first half of next year, which may support the Australian dollar as part of today’s AUDUSD forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
USDJPY: Japan’s inflation eases but remains above the BoJ’s target

The USDJPY rate is hovering around an 11-week high. Find out more in our analysis for 18 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points
  • Japan’s consumer prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, the lowest level since April
  • Tokyo’s core inflation index increased by 2.4% in September, remaining above the BoJ’s 2.0% target
  • Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, warned against excessive yen volatility
  • USDJPY forecast for 18 October 2024: 151.15
Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is undergoing a correction after rising for two days. The yen remains under pressure due to easing inflation in the country, which weakens the national currency despite expectations that the BoJ will tighten its monetary policy. According to today’s USDJPY forecast, the currency pair will likely continue its upward trend.

Japan’s consumer prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, down from 3.0% in August. This is the first time inflation has slowed since March and the lowest since April 2024. The core inflation index, closely monitored by the BoJ, rose by 2.4%, marking the lowest reading since April after a 2.8% increase in August. The figure has remained above the regulator’s 2.0% target for 30 months. Inflation, excluding food and energy, was 2.1% in September, up from 2.0% in August.

Bank of Japan Policy Board member Seiji Adachi recently noted that the pace of interest rate hikes should be moderate, warning against abrupt policy changes due to uncertainty in the global economy and the country’s wage growth rate. At the same time, the yen’s weakness prompted Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, to remind the Japanese government that it is closely watching foreign exchange movements and to emphasise that excessive volatility is undesirable.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EURUSD: the resilience of the US economy supports the US dollar

The EURUSD rate declines after rebounding from the 1.0870 resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 21 October 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points
  • The US dollar has strengthened for the third consecutive week amid expectations of a softer Federal Reserve rate cut
  • Markets estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in November at 90.9%
  • This week, investors are focusing on corporate reports and risks related to the US election
  • EURUSD forecast for 21 October 2024: 1.0820 and 1.077
Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is undergoing a correction after Friday’s rise, remaining below the EMA-200 level, indicating persistent pressure from sellers. The US dollar has strengthened for three consecutive weeks amid expectations of a softer Fed rate-cutting cycle and higher chances of Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming elections.

Analysts note that the current US interest rate helps strengthen the US currency. At the same time, rate cuts in other countries only add to the USD’s appeal. Experts believe this trend may persist until the election, and if Donald Trump wins, it will likely continue. The markets currently estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in November at 90.9%.

Investors are now awaiting the release of data on new home sales and durable goods orders in the US. The markets will primarily focus on corporate reports and risks related to the upcoming election. Retail sales data and the previously released robust statistics on the labour market and inflation show that consumer spending is stable. This reflects the resilience of the US economy, which is still far from a recession. According to today’s EURUSD forecast, this may support the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
USDJPY continues its ascent, reaching a three-month high

The USDJPY pair has reached a new three-month peak. The market does not rule out currency interventions from the Bank of Japan. Find out more in our analysis for 22 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points
  • The USDJPY pair has surpassed a three-month high
  • The yen has weakened, increasing the likelihood of new currency interventions from the Bank of Japan
  • USDJPY forecast for 22 October 2024: 151.25 and 153.20
Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose by 150.95 on Tuesday, the highest level in the last three months.

Investors believe the odds of new currency interventions from the Bank of Japan increased after the USDJPY tested the 151.00 level. However, Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki did not comment on a news media question about currency fluctuations. Last week, one of the top currency diplomats, Atsushi Mimura, noted that the authorities are closely monitoring all market movements. He also added that excessive volatility was undesirable. These remarks can be interpreted differently, but the market typically views them as a signal of readiness to influence the situation.

Currency interventions occurred in early 2024 when the yen breached the 160.00 level.

This time, the JPY began to weaken in mid-September due to rising uncertainty about the trajectory of BoJ interest rate hikes.

The USDJPY forecast does not rule out further growth.

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