Forex Analysis

JamesThatcher · Mar 21, 2022

The Week Ahead 21st March 2022

I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead.

23rd March 2022 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4WW9ZJTI5

23rd March 2022 14:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

24th March 2022 09:00 GMT Norweigen Rate Decision

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

24th March 2022 13:08 GMT South African Interest Rate

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

24th March 2022 19:00 GMT Mexican Interest Rate

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9TVg7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

JamesThatcher · Mar 23, 2022

United Kingdom Core CPI y/y March 23 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.

Historic deviations and their outcome

February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting

Check out the price action here:

GB Core CPI (YoY) 2021-02-17 07:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.

Check out the price action here:

GB Core CPI (YoY) 2021-01-20 07:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI (Y/Y) 6.00

Today's trade plan

If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.3 on either

Core CPI Y/Y (Year on Year) or
CPI Y/Y line.

With no conflicts on any other line.

Tradable pairs

GBPUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Mar 24, 2022

South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late March 24 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.

April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart, the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09

See charts here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x

Historic deviations and their outcome

January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.

Check out the price action here:

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision 4.25

Today's trade plan

Today it's forecast to see an increase to 4.25%; therefore, if we see a higher than expected increase to 4.50% or more, I will take a buy which will be a sell on UDSZAR. Or if we see no change and the rate remains at 4.00%, I will take a sell, which is a buy on USDZAR.

We should bank some nice pips if this hit.

Tradable pairs

USDZAR

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Mar 29, 2022

The Week Ahead 28th March 2022

In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

01st April 2022 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change

See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz

01st April 2022 15:00 GMT US ISM Manufacturing PMI

See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49SVNNJTIwTWFudWZhY3R1cmluZyUyMFBNSQ

JamesThatcher · Apr 1, 2022

United States Non-Farm Employment Change April 1 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-09-03 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-08-06 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-07-02 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.40
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 480,000
US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 5.5

Today's trade plan

I will be focusing on Average Earnings Y/Y and want this to deviate by at least +/- 0.2% with supporting deviation from the headline NFP to deviate by at least 75k.

I will not tolerate conflicts from Average Earnings M/M

I will ignore all other lines.

This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Apr 5, 2022

The Week Ahead 4th April 2022

I'll be looking closely at the following releases in the week ahead.

05th April 2022 05:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate

See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

08th April 2022 13:30 GMT Canadian Employment

See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49RW1wbG95bWVudCUyMENoYW5nZQ

JamesThatcher · Apr 5, 2022

Australia Cash Rate April 5 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Statement 1.00

Today's trade plan

I will trade from a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.

Tradable pairs

AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Apr 8, 2022

Canada Employment Change April 8 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. Therefore, more people in employment is good for the currency's value as it indicates a stronger economy.

Historic deviations and their outcome

April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit.

Check out the price action here:

CA Employment Change 2021-04-09 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

March 12 2021 Big deviation, which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate, gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers, but this still worked great.

Check out the price action here:

CA Employment Change 2021-03-12 13:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change 80
Unemployment Rate 5.35

Today's trade plan

It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls simultaneously. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered.

If we see a deviation of +/- 75k in either direction from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction.

I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade.

Today I will opt for USDCAD and not EURCAD as the Euro is riskier due to the conflict in Ukraine.

Tradable pairs

EURCAD
USDCAD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Apr 11, 2022

The Week Ahead 11th April 2022

In the week ahead I'll be closely looking at the following releases.

12th April 2022 13:30 GMT US Core CPI m/m

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ

13th April 2022 02:00 GMT New Zealand Official Cash Rate

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tlo7bm49UkJOWiUyMEludGVyZXN0JTIwUmF0ZSUyMERlY2lzaW9u

13th April 2022 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

JamesThatcher · Apr 12, 2022

United States Core CPI m/m April 12 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.

CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)

Historic deviations and their outcome

August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-08-11 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-07-13 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was mainly because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-06-10 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 6.6
CPI (M/M) 1.2

Today's trade plan

Today I'm looking for a deviation of +/- 0.2% on ANY of the 4 lines to trigger a buy or sell.

I will confirm that all others lines deviate in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

CPI - Core (M?M)
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y

If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Apr 13, 2022

New Zealand Official Cash Rate April 13 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.

Check out the price action here:

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2021-08-18 02:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

Check out the price action here:

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-11-13 01:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

Check out the price action here:

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-08-07 02:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 1.25

Today's trade plan

Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 1.25%. There are varying predictions; the market has priced in a hike to 1.50% therefore I will take a sell if they increase only to 1.25% and a buy if they hike to 1.50%

I would prefer a sell.

Tradable pairs

EURNZD
GBPNZD
NZDJPY
NZDUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Apr 13, 2022

Canada Overnight Rate April 13 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.

See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 1.00

Today's trade plan

Today we're forecast for a hike in the rate to 1.00%. The market has however priced in a further hike to 1.25%, but will they go further and hike to 1.50%? That would be the preferred trade however I'll also take a sell on only a small hike as Cad should drop off if they only hike to 1.00%

Tradable pairs

CADJPY
EURCAD
GBPCAD
USDCAD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Apr 25, 2022

The Week Ahead 25th April 2022

In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

27th April 2022 02:30 GMT Australian CPI q/q

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4UW9RJTI5

28th April 2022 08:30 GMT Swedish Intrest rate

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9U0U7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

JamesThatcher · Apr 27, 2022

Australia CPI q/q April 27 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways. A rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency. On the other hand, during the recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and a fall in local currency.

The RBA has a dual mandate of reduced unemployment and achieving higher inflation, So we hope a surprise increase in the CPI figures could fuel a new debate for the RBA on when it would begin tapering/reduced quantitative easing.

Historic deviations and their outcome

April 28 2021 Negative deviations on all lines saw a fantastic move; the Trimmed mean was heavily supported by the Headline QQ, pushing the AUD dollar to new lows!

Check out the price action here:

AU CPI (QoQ) 2021-04-28 01:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

January 27 2021 Headline Q/Q and Y/Y gave +0.2. Trimmed Mean was flat, though so not ideal. The move was respectable, lasting a good 30 seconds!

Check out the price action here:

AU CPI (QoQ) 2021-01-27 00:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 29 2020 Trimmed mean gave a -0.2 deviation but we saw a conflict with the Headline CPI QQ and YY with a positive +0.1 so it wasn't a trade for me. It's worth noting that Trimmed Mean won the day and blew away the conflict.

Check out the price action here:

AU CPI (QoQ) 2020-07-29 01:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Trimmed Mean (Q/Q) 1.2
CPI - Trimmed Mean (Y/Y) 3.4

Today's trade plan

If we see a deviation from the forecast of 0.3 on either line. Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q or Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y in either direction with no conflicts from the Headline CPI QQ and CPI YY. If they line up, we should see a prolonged move that we can bank some good pips from.

Tradable pairs

AUDUSD
EURAUD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · May 2, 2022

The Week Ahead 02nd May 2022

In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

03rd May 2022 05:30 GMT Austrailian Cash Rate

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

05th May 2022 09:00 GMT Norweigan Rate Decision

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

05th May 2022 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

06th May 2022 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz

JamesThatcher · May 3, 2022

Australia Cash Rate May 3 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Statement 0.25

Today's trade plan

Today the forcast is to raise the rates to 0.25% Therefore i will trade either outcome, If no raise and rates remain at 0.10% i'll take a sell. If the raise further to to 0.50% I'll take a buy.

Tradable pairs

AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · May 4, 2022

United States Federal Funds Rate May 4 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49RmVkJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

I will use forecasts of:

FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Max 0.75

Today's trade plan

Today is a very rare occasion when there are varying forcasts of a change. I am using the forcast of 0.75% actual, therefore I wil take a take if the hike to 1.00% or leave the rates unchanged at 0.50%

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · May 5, 2022

Norway NOK Rate Decision May 5 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

June 18 2020 7th May 2020

A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00%

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

March 19 2020 20th March 2020

A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25%

NO Interest Rate Decision 2020-03-20 07:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

March 19 2020 13th March 2020

An emergency cut of 0.50% to the 1.5% interest rates due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant expected impact on the economy is the first cut to interest rates since 2016

The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic began to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts.

Due to the unprecedented times this first in a series of emergency cuts which doesn't create anything near the reaction we would likely see if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020, which I'm glad to say is now behind us, and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released.

NO Interest Rate Decision 2020-03-13 07:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision 0.75

Today's trade plan

Today it is forecast for the rate to remain at 0.75%. All economists predict this therefore, I will take a buy if they hike to1.00% or a sell if they cut the rates to 0.50%

This equates to a +/- 0.25% Deviation from the forecast of 0.75%

Tradable pairs

EURNOK
USDNOK

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · May 5, 2022

United Kingdom Official Bank Rate May 5 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.

See the report history here :

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

Historic deviations and their outcome

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Statement 1.00

Today's trade plan

Today the official forecast is for the rate to be hiked to 1.00% Therefore I will be looking to take a buy or sell on an deviation of 0.25% in either direction

Tradable pairs

EURGBP
GBPUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · May 6, 2022

United States Non-Farm Employment Change May 6 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-09-03 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-08-06 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-07-02 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.40
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 391,000
US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 5.5

Today's trade plan

I will be focusing on Average Earnings Y/Y and want this to deviate by at least +/- 0.2% with supporting deviation from the headline NFP to deviate by at least 75k.

I will not tolerate conflicts from Average Earnings M/M

I will ignore all other lines.

This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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