Daily Technical Analysis By CSFX

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 02 August 2023​

Fitch Downgrades US Credit Rating: What Does This Mean for Investors?​

Introduction​

In a move that has sent shockwaves across the financial world, rating agency Fitch has downgraded the United States from AAA to AA+, causing a ripple effect in global markets. This downgrade, while not entirely unexpected, has put traders on edge and has already had significant implications on Asian markets. In this article, we’ll delve into the details of Fitch’s decision and its impact on different financial assets and regions. We’ll also explore the outlook for the upcoming sessions and discuss how central banks and key economic indicators might influence market sentiment.

Fitch Downgrades The US: Initial Market Reactions​

As the New York market closed, the news of Fitch’s downgrade hit Asian markets hard, with opening rates in the negative territory. While the reaction has been relatively restrained so far, the downward trend in interest rates and stock futures, coupled with increased flows towards safe-haven currencies, suggests that further declines may be on the horizon once the Asian market resumes trading. Despite the Fitch report, US indices experienced a minor reprieve on the first trading day of the month, with the Dow up by 0.2%, the S&P down by 0.27%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.43%.

APAC Trading And Safe-Haven Assets​

In the wake of the Fitch downgrade, the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF) experienced increased buying in the foreign exchange market. On the other hand, the Australian dollar fell against the US dollar and other major currencies following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold interest rates steady earlier in the day. Interestingly, safe-haven assets like gold saw a rise in prices, trading 0.6% higher than the previous day’s low, as investors sought refuge amidst the uncertainty.

Market Volatility And Key Data Releases​

As the market braces for a potentially tumultuous period, it’s essential to keep an eye on key economic indicators and central bank actions. Before the highly-anticipated job numbers report later in the week, markets are expected to remain volatile. The Asian session, followed by the European session, is relatively calm in terms of macroeconomic data, but once the US session begins, things might become more intriguing. Investors will closely monitor Wall Street’s response to the Fitch downgrade, as well as critical data releases, such as the US Crude Oil Inventory numbers and the ADP Non-Farm Employment data.

GBPUSD​

Exponential Moving Average​

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2799, suggesting a Sell sentiment.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2836, reinforcing a Sell indication.
• EMA 50: With a value of 1.2855, the 50-day EMA aligns with a Sell recommendation.

Simple Moving Average​

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2785, indicating a Sell sentiment.
• SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2844, supporting a Sell stance.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2922, signifying a Sell indication.

RSI (RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX)​

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 40.10, suggesting a Neutral signal.

Stochastic Oscillator​

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Neutral condition.

Resistance And Support Levels​

• Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.2803.
• Support: The support level is observed at 1.2745.

Summary And Trade Suggestions​

Based on the technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Sell outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

TRADE SUGGESTION:​

• Entry Point: 1.2707
• Take Profit: 1.2629
• Stop Loss: 1.2766

EURUSD​

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 04 August 2023​

Nervous Excitement Grips Traders as US Job Data Sparks Market Anticipation.​

In anticipation of important job numbers later today, investors meticulously analyzed changes in treasury yields, economic data, and profit reports yesterday. The day resulted in a mixed performance for US stock markets. The S&P experienced a slight decline of 0.25%, the Nasdaq, on the other hand, saw a modest rise of 0.08%, while the Dow ended the day lower by 0.19%. Sterling faced downward pressure after the Bank of England announced a 25bps raise, while the currency market had a relatively calm day, trading in narrow ranges but at the top of recent USD levels. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury note traded as high as 4.198% throughout the session. After the market closed, Amazon shares soared as it anticipated substantially greater third-quarter revenues than expected. Meanwhile, Apple’s shares fell due to weaker iPhone sales.

Important US Job Data Today​

Traders are keeping a close eye on the prestigious release for the financial markets today. Investors have long been focused on non-farm payrolls, now known as employment change, which has given many traders nightmares when unexpected prints took markets on rollercoaster rides they didn’t really need on a late Friday trading session. The Federal Reserve has stated that they are closely monitoring the data as they approach the end of their tightening cycle, adding even more significance to today’s event. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6%, and the headline number is projected to climb by 205K. However, if one of these expectations is significantly off, traders may find themselves getting back on the rollercoaster, whether they want to or not!

What Happened In The Asia Session?​

During the Board meeting in August, the potential for further tightening of monetary policy was considered. Nevertheless, it was ultimately concluded that keeping rates unchanged was the better course of action, considering the severe tightening of policy that has already occurred. Therefore, we might witness an increase in interest rates as the year draws to a close, and currency pairs like AUD/USD could eventually experience bullish momentum.

What Does It Mean For The Europe & US Sessions?​

The most important news event today will be the Non-Farm Employment Change in the United States. This is expected to create another exceptionally volatile session for both currencies and gold prices.

Expert Analysis: Forex And Cryptocurrency Trading Recommendations​

GBPUSD​

Exponential Moving Average​

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2709, suggesting a bearish sentiment.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2772, reinforcing a bearish indication.
• EMA 50: With a value of 1.2822, the 50-day EMA aligns with a sell recommendation.

Simple Moving Average​

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2699, indicating a bearish sentiment.
• SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2787, supporting a bearish stance.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2893, signifying a sell indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)​

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 36.42, suggesting a negative signal.

Stochastic Oscillator​

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a positive condition.

Resistance And Support Levels​

• Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.2761.
• Support: The support level is observed at 1.2679.

Summary And Trade Suggestions​

Based on technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a bearish outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:​

• Entry Point: 1.2640
• Take Profit: 1.2538
• Stop Loss: 1.2730

EURUSD​

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 08 August 2023​

Nasdaq Lags as Dow Gains, Oil Prices Await API Stockpiles.​

Introduction​

In this dynamic market update, we delve into the recent surge in stocks, exploring the factors driving the rebound. We dissect the implications of Federal Reserve remarks on interest rates, the divergent CPI data between China and the US, and key news events shaping the Euro (EUR), Canadian Dollar (CAD), and Kiwi Dollar (NZD). As global markets oscillate, we provide insights into Asian, European, and US equities, along with commodity trends and significant news and data releases.

Rejuvenated Stock Market Momentum​

Dow Delivers Over 1% Gain Despite Fed’s Rate Remarks​

The stock market kicked off the trading week with gusto as major US indices demonstrated resilience against the backdrop of Federal Reserve members’ pronouncements. While Fed officials indicated a need for prolonged high-interest rates and hinted at potential future hikes, the Dow managed a remarkable 1.16% surge. This uptick stands as the Dow’s most substantial gain in over seven weeks, underlining investors’ willingness to embrace risk despite the monetary policy narrative. The S&P followed suit, ascending 0.9%, while the tech-laden Nasdaq, though trailing, still posted a 0.61% upturn.

US Treasury Yields Climb; Dollar Impact Muted​

While the Fed’s remarks spurred an uptick in US Treasury yields, the dollar’s response was subdued due to trading in narrow currency ranges. This curious reaction underscores the delicate balance of global currency dynamics, despite the underlying shifts in monetary policy outlook.

CPI Data Takes Center Stage​

Divergent Market Perspectives: China Vs. US​

The impending week places substantial emphasis on Consumer Price Index (CPI) data releases, particularly from the two largest economies – China and the US. These contrasting economic giants showcase divergent market perspectives. China’s CPI data is set to debut during the Asian session, with an anticipated 0.4% year-on-year decline. Such a downtrend might compel Chinese authorities to consider defensive measures against the looming threat of deflation. In stark contrast, the US economy is projected to exhibit year-on-year growth surpassing 3%, coupled with a 0.2% month-on-month expansion. This robust growth may bolster the assertive language voiced by Fed officials, amplifying the discourse on monetary policy outlook. The interplay between these differing economic trajectories and corresponding policy actions fuels fertile ground for FX traders seeking profitable opportunities.

Forex and Commodity Market Insights for Successful Trades​

GBP/USD: Navigating The Path​

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)​

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2754, signaling a bearish trend.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2767, reinforcing the downtrend.
• EMA 50: At 1.2808, the 50-day EMA aligns with a bearish sentiment.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)​

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2758, indicating a bearish market.
• SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2759, supporting the sell stance.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2853, confirming the sell indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)​

The RSI, calculated over 14 days, presents a reading of 43.45, suggesting a negative market sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator​

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator points to a positive condition.

Resistance And Support Levels​

• Resistance: Identified at 1.2786
• Support: Observed at 1.2730

Summary And Trade Suggestions​

Considering the technical analysis, GBP/USD showcases a bearish outlook. Traders may contemplate short positions based on indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.2674
• Take Profit: 1.2584
• Stop Loss: 1.2752

EURUSD: Unraveling The Dynamics​

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 21 August 2023​

Euro’s Hidden Battle: Can it Rebound from 1.0845 Support or Face Further Decline?​

Last week proved to be a trying period for investors as mounting concerns manifested into tangible market risks. As the new week unfolds, investors are eagerly anticipating a more favorable outcome. Despite a relatively subdued weekend for the major US indices, the preceding damage has already been incurred. The S&P closed marginally down by 0.01%, the Nasdaq experienced a 0.2% dip, while the Dow managed a modest 0.07% uptick. The dollar’s streak of five consecutive weeks of gains has concluded, and US treasury rates have once again escalated. The benchmark 10-year note reached a 10-month pinnacle of 4.328%. Although the forthcoming week’s calendar is sparsely populated with events, investors are already casting their gaze towards the Jackson Hole symposium slated for week’s end, hopeful for fresh catalysts to rejuvenate sluggish markets.

Gold Bears Triumph In A Challenging Market​

Gold’s Struggle Continues with a 9% Retreat

Gold’s trajectory has been marked by adversity over the past few months, with its value plummeting by 9% from its previous all-time high reached in May. Recent days have seen this precious metal comfortably trading below the $1,900 threshold, leading traders to seek out new points for selling. While the dollar’s resurgent position has certainly contributed to this downturn, investors, accustomed to gold’s role as a haven during market downturns, find themselves puzzled by the dollar’s dominance. From a technical perspective, the shattering of recent support levels has paved the way for a potential plunge to $1,800, with initial resistance presenting itself at the $1,910 mark. Nevertheless, if risk-centric trades continue to dwindle, a resurgence is plausible as safe-haven assets eventually gain traction.

​

Expert Analysis: Forex and Commodity Market Insights for Profitable Trading​

GBPUSD: Expert Technical Analysis For Trading Success​

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Insights​

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2728, suggesting a potential Sell sentiment.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2723, reinforcing the idea of a Sell indication.
• EMA 50: With a value of 1.2747, the 50-day EMA aligns with a recommendation to Sell.

Simple Moving Average (SMA) Trends​

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2728, indicating a Sell sentiment.
• SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2709, supporting a Buy stance.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2738, signifying a potential Sell indication.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Insights​

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 48.96, suggesting a positive signal.

Stochastic Oscillator Analysis​

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Negative condition.

Resistance And Support Levels​

• Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.2756
• Support: The support level is observed at 1.2681

Summary And Trade Suggestions​

Based on the technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Sell outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.2634
• Take Profit: 1.2509
• Stop Loss: 1.2735

EURUSD: Technical Analysis For Informed Trading​

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 22 August 2023​

Nvidia’s Meteoric Rise and HSBC’s Jaw-Dropping Prediction: Is This the End of Wall Street Predictions?​

In a whirlwind of market activity, tech giants like Nvidia have taken center stage, propelling the Nasdaq to remarkable gains, while investor attention remains fixated on the upcoming Jackson Hole conference. Let’s dive into the latest market updates and uncover the driving forces behind these significant movements.

Nvidia’s Earnings Drive Nasdaq’s Upward Trajectory​

Nvidia’s impending earnings announcement sent ripples through the stock market, with its shares experiencing a notable surge on Monday. This surge played a pivotal role in boosting both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, leading them to close the day with more than a 1% increase. The positive momentum wasn’t confined to Nvidia alone, as other technology-related equities also enjoyed gains, painting a vivid picture of the tech sector’s impact on the broader market.

Dow Jones Dips Amidst Market Fluctuations​

While the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were basking in their gains, the Dow Jones industrial average experienced a slight decline. This divergence in performance underscores the intricate interplay of various market factors that influence each index’s trajectory.

Anticipation Builds Ahead Of Jackson Hole Conference​

Investor apprehension is palpable as the countdown to the Jackson Hole conference begins. Scheduled to take place in scenic Wyoming, this conference will bring together central bankers from around the world to discuss pivotal monetary policy matters. The stakes are high, given that the yield on 10-year Treasury notes recently reached levels reminiscent of the 2007 Great Financial Crisis. All eyes are on Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, as he prepares to take the stage on Friday to deliver a speech that could steer market sentiment.

Tech Sector Takes The Lead: S&P 500 And Nasdaq Benefit​

The technology sector emerged as a key driver of market gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaping the most significant rewards. This surge was particularly pronounced in the SPLRCT, the technology sector’s S&P 500 subindex. Further underlining this trend, the semiconductor index (SOX) saw a notable uptick of 2.8%.

NVIDIA’S SOARING STOCK AND HSBC’S BULLISH OUTLOOK​

A standout performer, semiconductor manufacturer Nvidia witnessed an impressive 8.5% increase in its stock value. This surge can be attributed, in part, to HSBC’s decision to raise its price target for Nvidia shares to a staggering $780—a figure that now ranks as the second-highest on Wall Street. Such an optimistic outlook from a reputable financial institution further solidifies Nvidia’s position as a market leader.

GBPUSD: A Buy Outlook​

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: Standing at 1.2764, this suggests a Buy sentiment.
• EMA 20: Displaying 1.2738, reinforces a Buy indication.
• EMA 50: Aligned at 1.2751, the 50-day EMA supports a Buy recommendation.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: At 1.2766, this indicates a Buy sentiment.
• SMA 20: Recording 1.2724, this supports a Buy stance.
• SMA 50: Standing at 1.2735, this signifies a Buy indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI, calculated over 14 days, reads 61.13, suggesting a positive signal.

Stochastic Oscillator The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator indicates a Positive condition.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: Identified at 1.2819
• Support: Observed at 1.2711

Summary And Trade Suggestions Based on technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Buy outlook. Traders may consider entering a long position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.2869
• Take Profit: 1.2973
• Stop Loss: 1.2788

EURUSD: Favorable For Long Position​

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 29 August 2023​

Nasdaq Rockets 0.84% After Jackson Hole! What’s Behind This Explosive Surge?​

Introduction​

In the ever-changing landscape of financial markets, the US stocks have once again demonstrated their resilience as the Nasdaq rose by an impressive 0.84%. This surge comes on the heels of the Jackson Hole symposium, a gathering of economic minds that often sets the tone for market sentiment. As the week unfolds, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s data, providing investors with crucial insights into the future trajectory of interest rates. Let’s delve into the details of this market update and explore the implications for global investors.

Nasdaq Takes The Lead​

The Nasdaq, a stalwart among the three major US indices, stole the spotlight with its 0.84% rise on the heels of the Jackson Hole symposium. This advance was accompanied by gains in both the Dow and the S&P 500, indicating a promising start to the week for US markets.

Treasury Notes And Rate Speculations​

Amidst the market fervor, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note garnered attention as it hovered just below the 4.21% mark. Notably, US treasury rates witnessed a slight dip from earlier gains, a reflection of investor debates over the possibility of a third Fed boost. The outcome of these discussions could significantly influence market trends in the near future.

Forex Market’s Response​

While the recent news failed to generate significant excitement in the foreign exchange markets, there were notable fluctuations. The USDJPY initially surged to a high point before experiencing a decline by the end of the trading day. This contributed to an overall decline in the dollar’s value. In contrast, Gold exhibited its characteristic resilience, reaching a high of around $1,926 per ounce. Oil, on the other hand, remained relatively stable, adhering to familiar trading ranges.

Fed’s Data: The Center Of Attention​

The optimism that characterized Wednesday’s stock market surge was largely attributed to Jerome Powell’s optimistic remarks, viewed through a dovish lens. However, seasoned investors recognize that central banks closely monitor data as they plan their next moves regarding interest rates. This week’s data calendar is brimming with US economic indicators, most notably the PCE Price Index, a preferred inflation gauge of the Fed. Additionally, the eagerly awaited non-farm payrolls report promises to shed light on the labor market’s trajectory.

Impact On US Markets​

With all eyes on the US job market, the week’s focus revolves around a market slowdown that could potentially influence the Fed’s decisions on interest rates. While investors hope for a market deceleration to halt rising rates, they are wary of a market crash that could signal an impending recession. This dichotomy sets the stage for a tumultuous week as market participants brace themselves for a whirlwind of data releases.

GBP/USD: Riding The Market Waves​

Exponential Moving Averages Paint A Story​

• EMA 5: At 1.2607, there’s a beckoning Buy sentiment.
• EMA 20: Stands at 1.2646, reinforcing a Sell indication.
• EMA 50: Aligns at 1.2695, giving way to a Sell recommendation.

RSI And Stochastic Insights​

• RSI: Over 14 days, a reading of 43.21 unveils a Neutral signal.
• Stochastic Oscillator: %K value suggests a Positive condition.

Critical Resistance And Support Levels​

• Resistance: 1.2645
• Support: 1.2598

Analyst’s Take: It’s A Sell Outlook​

Based on our technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Sell outlook. Traders might consider a short position, considering the various indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.2576
• Take Profit: 1.2502
• Stop Loss: 1.2641

EUR/USD: Riding The Eurocoaster​

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