CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Donald Trump – "Master" of the Price
● The main event of recent days in the crypto world was the annual Bitcoin-2024 conference in Nashville (USA). The highlight of this conference was the speech by Donald Trump. The former and possibly future President of the United States promised to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler if elected and appoint key regulators who will be friendly to the crypto industry. "From now on, the rules will be written by those who love your industry, not hate it," Trump declared, receiving a standing ovation from the audience.
The politician also intends to end the war on digital assets, turn the US into the cryptocurrency capital of the world, and include the government's existing bitcoins in the national strategic reserve. Trump also stated that "one fine day" bitcoin would surpass gold and silver in market capitalization. Following these promises and forecasts by the presidential candidate, the BTC/USD pair surged, reaching $70,000 on July 29. However, it failed to set a new all-time high.
● A known supporter of physical gold and a fierce critic of digital gold, financier Peter Schiff believes Trump should have kept his mouth shut. According to Schiff, the Biden administration, out of a desire to harm its competitor, will now sell everything in the government's crypto stash, leaving not a single satoshi. It turns out these are not empty predictions – as reported by Arkham Intelligence, 30,000 BTC out of the 200,000 owned by the US government have already started moving. Against this backdrop, the leading cryptocurrency plunged, reaching a local bottom of $62,210 on the first day of August.
● Summer 2024 has been tough for bitcoin. The crypto market faced significant pressure due to the German government's sale of 50,000 BTC (approximately $3.0 billion) confiscated by the police. Additionally, another 62,000 coins (about $4 billion) were distributed to creditors of the bankrupt crypto exchange Mt.Gox, which collapsed 10 years ago. According to the analytical agency Glassnode, the total pressure for June-July amounted to 147,500 bitcoins (around $10 billion).
It should be noted that the flagship cryptocurrency has honourably withstood the bear attacks. Contributing to its resilience were the launch of exchange-traded spot ETFs, the April halving, and the anticipation of an imminent easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Long-term holders (LTHs) also supported the prices, not only refraining from selling but continuing to add to their wallets. The Glassnode data clearly shows how recent months' sell-offs by short-term holders (STHs) have been offset by purchases from long-term holders.
Of course, if the Biden administration decides to part with all 200,000 BTC, it will exert new downward pressure on the prices. However, the market will likely cope with this issue, and any price decline is not expected to be very severe or long-lasting.
● Economist and trader Alex Krüger believes that bitcoin is in a super-cycle. According to him, Wall Street and the traditional financial world have fundamentally changed the nature and structure of the digital asset market. As a result, downside volatility will be much more limited, and buyer activity will significantly increase. "Essentially, a super-cycle means the following," explained the expert, "it's not that we no longer have bears or corrections, and we just keep going up. It means that upcoming corrections will be shallow and won't last forever."
"The main driving force behind this change," Krüger continues, "is that Wall Street is here, and ETFs [exchange-traded funds] are now here, which has fundamentally altered the market structure. [...] The share of bitcoin ownership is currently very low in aggregate terms and, of course, in portfolios. The marketing pitch from Wall Street is that this figure should be around 2%." Based on this, the economist believes the super-cycle will continue until this target is reached.
Analyst Daan de Rover, better known on social network X as Crypto Rover, expects the BTC price could exceed $800,000. De Rover bases his forecast on Trump's remarks that bitcoin could surpass gold in market capitalization. If this happens, according to the analyst's calculations, the value of 1 BTC would be exactly $813,054.
● Another speaker at the Nashville conference was MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, who announced that bitcoin's price will reach $13 million by 2045. According to his calculations, with the current bitcoin price around $65,000, its market capitalization is $1.3 trillion – just 0.1% of global wealth. With an annual return of approximately 29%, digital gold will reach a market cap of $280 trillion and represent 7% of global wealth by 2045. According to Saylor, this is an average result. If the bullish forecast materializes, the price of 1 BTC will reach $49 million, totalling 22% of global wealth. If the bearish forecast plays out, the figures will be $3 million and 2%, respectively.
The MicroStrategy founder is confident that all physical capital – from stocks and bonds to cars and real estate – is subject to the laws of thermodynamics, including entropy, which is the tendency of energy to disperse over time. "Entropy dilutes the value of physical assets. It sucks capital out of them." According to Saylor, the primary cryptocurrency is an exception to this rule because it "does not exist in the physical world" and has an "infinite lifespan." "Bitcoin is immortal, immutable, and incorporeal," making it "the solution to our economic dilemma," the billionaire stated.
● 2045 is still a long way off. Regarding the near-term horizons, the head and founder of MN Trading, Michaël van de Poppe, believes that "Donald Trump's speech [in Nashville] had a positive impact, thanks to which bitcoin could test its all-time high in the coming weeks." "As long as it stays above $60,000-62,000, we have good prospects for further growth," the expert stated.
Some experts, such as Dan Crypto Traders and Tanaka, predict BTC will rise to $100,000 and ETH to $8,000-10,000. The well-known analyst Plan B forecasted bitcoin's price to reach $140,000. After the flagship cryptocurrency hit $70,000 on July 29, he wrote, "I expect bitcoin's price to double from today's value within 3-5 months." Plan B explained his prediction by stating that after the April halving, "miner revenues have bottomed out, meaning less profitable miners have stopped. Only the most profitable ones (with the latest equipment and lowest electricity costs) have survived." "The battle is over, the difficulty will continue to rise. And investors will take over pricing," Plan B stated.
● As of the evening of Friday, August 2, the BTC/USD pair is trading at $62,400. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $2.22 trillion (down from $2.42 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 68 to 57 points over the past 7 days but remains in the Greed zone.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
https://nordfx.com/
● The main event of recent days in the crypto world was the annual Bitcoin-2024 conference in Nashville (USA). The highlight of this conference was the speech by Donald Trump. The former and possibly future President of the United States promised to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler if elected and appoint key regulators who will be friendly to the crypto industry. "From now on, the rules will be written by those who love your industry, not hate it," Trump declared, receiving a standing ovation from the audience.
The politician also intends to end the war on digital assets, turn the US into the cryptocurrency capital of the world, and include the government's existing bitcoins in the national strategic reserve. Trump also stated that "one fine day" bitcoin would surpass gold and silver in market capitalization. Following these promises and forecasts by the presidential candidate, the BTC/USD pair surged, reaching $70,000 on July 29. However, it failed to set a new all-time high.
● A known supporter of physical gold and a fierce critic of digital gold, financier Peter Schiff believes Trump should have kept his mouth shut. According to Schiff, the Biden administration, out of a desire to harm its competitor, will now sell everything in the government's crypto stash, leaving not a single satoshi. It turns out these are not empty predictions – as reported by Arkham Intelligence, 30,000 BTC out of the 200,000 owned by the US government have already started moving. Against this backdrop, the leading cryptocurrency plunged, reaching a local bottom of $62,210 on the first day of August.
● Summer 2024 has been tough for bitcoin. The crypto market faced significant pressure due to the German government's sale of 50,000 BTC (approximately $3.0 billion) confiscated by the police. Additionally, another 62,000 coins (about $4 billion) were distributed to creditors of the bankrupt crypto exchange Mt.Gox, which collapsed 10 years ago. According to the analytical agency Glassnode, the total pressure for June-July amounted to 147,500 bitcoins (around $10 billion).
It should be noted that the flagship cryptocurrency has honourably withstood the bear attacks. Contributing to its resilience were the launch of exchange-traded spot ETFs, the April halving, and the anticipation of an imminent easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Long-term holders (LTHs) also supported the prices, not only refraining from selling but continuing to add to their wallets. The Glassnode data clearly shows how recent months' sell-offs by short-term holders (STHs) have been offset by purchases from long-term holders.
Of course, if the Biden administration decides to part with all 200,000 BTC, it will exert new downward pressure on the prices. However, the market will likely cope with this issue, and any price decline is not expected to be very severe or long-lasting.
● Economist and trader Alex Krüger believes that bitcoin is in a super-cycle. According to him, Wall Street and the traditional financial world have fundamentally changed the nature and structure of the digital asset market. As a result, downside volatility will be much more limited, and buyer activity will significantly increase. "Essentially, a super-cycle means the following," explained the expert, "it's not that we no longer have bears or corrections, and we just keep going up. It means that upcoming corrections will be shallow and won't last forever."
"The main driving force behind this change," Krüger continues, "is that Wall Street is here, and ETFs [exchange-traded funds] are now here, which has fundamentally altered the market structure. [...] The share of bitcoin ownership is currently very low in aggregate terms and, of course, in portfolios. The marketing pitch from Wall Street is that this figure should be around 2%." Based on this, the economist believes the super-cycle will continue until this target is reached.
Analyst Daan de Rover, better known on social network X as Crypto Rover, expects the BTC price could exceed $800,000. De Rover bases his forecast on Trump's remarks that bitcoin could surpass gold in market capitalization. If this happens, according to the analyst's calculations, the value of 1 BTC would be exactly $813,054.
● Another speaker at the Nashville conference was MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, who announced that bitcoin's price will reach $13 million by 2045. According to his calculations, with the current bitcoin price around $65,000, its market capitalization is $1.3 trillion – just 0.1% of global wealth. With an annual return of approximately 29%, digital gold will reach a market cap of $280 trillion and represent 7% of global wealth by 2045. According to Saylor, this is an average result. If the bullish forecast materializes, the price of 1 BTC will reach $49 million, totalling 22% of global wealth. If the bearish forecast plays out, the figures will be $3 million and 2%, respectively.
The MicroStrategy founder is confident that all physical capital – from stocks and bonds to cars and real estate – is subject to the laws of thermodynamics, including entropy, which is the tendency of energy to disperse over time. "Entropy dilutes the value of physical assets. It sucks capital out of them." According to Saylor, the primary cryptocurrency is an exception to this rule because it "does not exist in the physical world" and has an "infinite lifespan." "Bitcoin is immortal, immutable, and incorporeal," making it "the solution to our economic dilemma," the billionaire stated.
● 2045 is still a long way off. Regarding the near-term horizons, the head and founder of MN Trading, Michaël van de Poppe, believes that "Donald Trump's speech [in Nashville] had a positive impact, thanks to which bitcoin could test its all-time high in the coming weeks." "As long as it stays above $60,000-62,000, we have good prospects for further growth," the expert stated.
Some experts, such as Dan Crypto Traders and Tanaka, predict BTC will rise to $100,000 and ETH to $8,000-10,000. The well-known analyst Plan B forecasted bitcoin's price to reach $140,000. After the flagship cryptocurrency hit $70,000 on July 29, he wrote, "I expect bitcoin's price to double from today's value within 3-5 months." Plan B explained his prediction by stating that after the April halving, "miner revenues have bottomed out, meaning less profitable miners have stopped. Only the most profitable ones (with the latest equipment and lowest electricity costs) have survived." "The battle is over, the difficulty will continue to rise. And investors will take over pricing," Plan B stated.
● As of the evening of Friday, August 2, the BTC/USD pair is trading at $62,400. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $2.22 trillion (down from $2.42 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 68 to 57 points over the past 7 days but remains in the Greed zone.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
https://nordfx.com/
