Daily Forex News By XtreamForex

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EUR/USD Hovers Near 1.0600 as US Dollar Retreats on Profit-Taking

The EUR/USD pair remains steady with a positive bias around the 1.0600 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair’s upward momentum appears supported by a softer US Dollar (USD), which is undergoing profit-taking after its recent rally.

Despite the USD’s pullback, its downside remains limited due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Powell emphasized the economy’s resilience, a robust labor market, and persistent inflation pressures, cautioning that the Fed sees no urgency to cut interest rates. Market participants are now awaiting further insights from Fed officials later this week regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

The USD could also regain strength as investors expect the incoming Trump administration to implement tax cuts and higher tariffs—policies that may drive inflation, potentially slowing the pace of Fed rate cuts.

On the European side, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde highlighted structural challenges in the region. Speaking on Monday, Lagarde called for a consolidation of resources in areas such as defense and climate, citing stagnating productivity growth and increasing global fragmentation into competitive blocs.

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USD/CAD Holds Near One-Week Low, Trades Range-Bound Above Mid-1.3900s

The USD/CAD pair has found support near the mid-1.3900s, marking a one-week low during Wednesday’s Asian session. However, the pair struggles to gain upward momentum, pausing this week’s pullback from its highest level since May 2020. Mixed fundamental signals keep bullish traders cautious.

Canadian Inflation and BoC Outlook
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose more than expected to 2.0% in October, prompting a recalibration of market expectations for a significant rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in December. This has provided some support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), offsetting pressure on the USD/CAD pair. However, subdued crude oil prices continue to cap the Loonie’s gains, limiting its appreciation.

Crude Oil Dynamics
While fears of supply disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict persist, crude oil prices remain constrained by signs of increased U.S. stockpiles. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a larger-than-expected build of 4.75 million barrels in U.S. inventories last week, indicating ample supply and dampening oil’s recent recovery from a two-month low.

U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields
On the U.S. side, a resurgence in dip-buying for the U.S. Dollar (USD) offers support to the USD/CAD pair. Expectations that U.S. fiscal policies under President-elect Donald Trump could stimulate economic growth and fuel inflation have bolstered U.S. Treasury yields, enhancing USD demand. This dynamic limits the pair’s downside potential.

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EUR/USD Slips Below 1.0550 Amid Awaited ECB Lagarde Speech and US PMI Data

The EUR/USD pair extended its decline to around 1.0530 during early Asian trading on Monday, pressured by a strengthening US Dollar (USD). Traders are focusing on key events scheduled for later in the day, including European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech and the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

In the Eurozone, November’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose to 2.3% year-over-year, up from October’s 2.0%, aligning with market expectations and surpassing the ECB’s 2.0% target. Core HICP also edged higher, rising to 2.8% YoY from 2.7% in the prior reading, meeting forecasts.

Markets are pricing in a 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut by the ECB in December, marking the central bank’s fourth reduction of the year. However, expectations for a larger 50 bps cut have waned, supported by marginal improvements in the Eurozone’s subdued growth outlook. Anticipation of rate cuts continues to weigh on the Euro (EUR).

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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bearish Bias Remains Unchanged Below 1.2700

The GBP/USD pair remains in positive territory for the second consecutive day, trading near 1.2690 during Wednesday’s early European session. However, the upside potential appears limited as expectations of a less aggressive interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and concerns over President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff policies lend support to the US Dollar. Investors are closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for insights into the interest rate outlook.

From a technical perspective, the bearish bias for GBP/USD persists, with the pair holding below the critical 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), hovering below the midline at 45.35, signals potential further downside.

Key support is located at the psychological level of 1.2600. A break below this level could expose the next target at 1.2467, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band, with further declines potentially testing 1.2331, the low from April 23.

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EUR/USD Gains Momentum Ahead of Key NFP Data Release

The EUR/USD pair climbed on Thursday, rising by 0.7% to approach the 1.0600 level. The move comes as better-than-expected European retail sales data for October temporarily buoyed sentiment, despite a monthly decline. Meanwhile, expectations of an ECB rate cut and a risk-on market mood ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report are keeping the currency pair in focus.

ECB Poised for Another Rate Cut Amid Mixed Economic Signals
October retail sales across the EU increased by 1.9% YoY, beating the 1.7% forecast, though still sharply lower than September’s revised 3.0%. This decline in broader economic activity has led to rising expectations of more aggressive rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated the bank’s commitment to fostering growth, projecting that inflation would ease again by 2025 despite a near-term bump in Q4.

Markets are pricing in a 25-bps rate cut from the ECB next week. Political turmoil in France, including President Emmanuel Macron surviving a no-confidence vote and planning to appoint a new Prime Minister, has been largely brushed aside by investors.

US Labor Market Data Adds Complexity to NFP Expectations
In the US, Initial Jobless Claims rose to 224,000 for the week ending November 29, the highest in six weeks, missing expectations of 215,000. Challenger Job Cuts also increased to 57,727 in November, signaling potential cracks in the labor market. However, these figures are seen as less significant compared to the looming NFP data, which is expected to show a strong rebound of 200,000 job additions in November following October’s hurricane- and strike-impacted figure of 12,000.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Current Outlook: The EUR/USD daily chart reflects a consolidation phase following a substantial downtrend that started in mid-July. After peaking near 1.1270, the pair experienced a steep decline, breaking below major support levels, including the 200-day EMA (1.0834) and the critical psychological level of 1.0600.

Recent Action: The pair recently rebounded from a November low of 1.0450, showing resilience around the 1.0588 level. Thursday’s bullish daily candle indicates growing momentum, with the pair breaking above the short-term resistance at 1.0550.

Upside Potential: A sustained move above 1.0600 could set the stage for further gains, potentially targeting the 50-day EMA at 1.0715. Breaking this level could validate a broader trend reversal and pave the way for a test of the 200-day EMA at 1.0834.

Downside Risks: On the downside, the MACD remains negative but shows signs of weakening bearish momentum. A failure to maintain the current rally could see EUR/USD revisiting support at 1.0500, with the critical 1.0450 low serving as a key threshold for bullish traders.

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GBP/USD Rebounds as US Dollar Weakens Amid Rising Fed Rate Cut Expectations

GBP/USD has recovered losses from the previous session, trading near 1.2770 during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair gains strength as the US Dollar (USD) retreats from a four-day winning streak, despite support from elevated US Treasury yields.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 106.50. Meanwhile, yields on US 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds are reported at 4.16% and 4.28%, respectively.

The USD faces headwinds as the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data does little to deter speculation of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is nearly a 99% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction during the Fed’s December 18 meeting. Market participants now turn their attention to the US November Producer Price Index (PPI), set for release later on Thursday, for further direction.

In November, the US CPI rose to 2.7% year-over-year, up from 2.6% in October, aligning with expectations. Month-over-month, headline CPI posted a 0.3% increase, matching market consensus. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, advanced 3.3% YoY and 0.3% MoM, both in line with forecasts.

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EUR/USD edges higher as US shutdown concerns pressure the Dollar

The EUR/USD pair rose more than 0.20% on Monday, supported by renewed concerns about a potential US government shutdown. Despite improved sentiment data in the Eurozone, the common currency’s advance remained modest. At the time of writing, the pair trades near 1.1726, after touching a daily low of 1.1701.

Dollar weakens amid political deadlock in Washington

The US Dollar slipped against most G10 currencies as political uncertainty in Washington weighed on investor sentiment. President Donald Trump met with Democratic leaders from both the House and Senate, but the discussions revealed deep divisions.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said, “We have large differences,” while House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries stressed that his party would not support a partisan Republican bill that threatens healthcare. Meanwhile, Vice President J.D. Vance told Bloomberg that the US is heading toward a shutdown following stalled talks.

Fed comments mixed; US housing data supports outlook
Earlier in the session, US housing data surprised to the upside, with Pending Home Sales jumping 4% in August, far above the 0.3% expected, and reversing July’s slight decline.

Federal Reserve officials, however, struck mixed tones:

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem described inflation expectations as “somewhat high,” while noting labor market weakness.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack maintained that inflation remains too high and continues on the wrong path.

New York Fed President John Williams highlighted that policy is restrictive but still effective in easing inflationary pressures, while acknowledging gradual labor market softening.

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GBP/USD Advances Above 1.3450 Amid Rising Fed Rate Cut Expectations

GBP/USD extends its rally for the fourth straight session, trading near 1.3460 during Wednesday’s Asian session. The pair remains supported as the US Dollar (USD) weakens on the back of soft labor market data, which has heightened expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a 97% chance of a rate cut in October and a 76% probability of another reduction in December.

US Job Openings data signaled further cooling in the labor market, with vacancies edging up slightly to 7.23 million in August from 7.21 million, while the hiring rate slipped to 3.2%—its lowest since June 2024. Layoffs, however, remained subdued. Traders now turn their focus to September’s ADP Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI, though releases may be disrupted by the ongoing US government shutdown.

The shutdown, which has left around 750,000 federal employees furloughed, came after Congress failed to pass funding bills. The US Labor Department confirmed that its statistics agency will suspend key data releases, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, if the shutdown continues.

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Australian Dollar Falls Due to Weak Housing Data and Strong US Dollar

Following weak housing data, the Australian dollar (AUD) continued to decline against the US dollar (USD) on Wednesday, continuing its losses for the second straight session. The AUD/USD pair declined as investor sentiment intensified, with the S&P/ASX 200 index edging down 0.14% to trade below 8,950. It occurred due to declines in technology and gold stocks.

New data showed that Australia’s housing sector is slowing down. In August, private house approvals fell by 2.6%, after a slight rise the month before. Building permits also dropped by 6%, marking the second consecutive month of decline, and these weak data statistics have raised concerns about the economy and added pressure on the Australian dollar.

Even so, the Australian dollar received some support from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which remains cautious. The bank maintained its main interest rate at 3.6%, citing that inflation remains high and the job market remains strong. Policymakers don’t want to cut rates too early while prices for services stay above target.

Globally, the US Dollar Index reached 98.80, marking its third consecutive day of gains for forex traders who showed trust in it. The dollar remained strong, despite many traders expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year. Traders are becoming increasingly anxious due to the ongoing discussions about a potential US government shutdown, the Fed’s conflicting responses, and the delays in the publication of economic data.

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EUR/USD Strengthens Above 1.1600 as Fed Signals Possible Rate Cuts

The EUR/USD pair climbed to around 1.1620 during Wednesday’s Asian session, as the US Dollar (USD) softened following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell suggested that the Fed could cut interest rates twice more this year, citing slower hiring as a growing risk to the US economy. These dovish remarks have pushed traders to anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, with another likely in December, giving the Euro a boost against the Greenback.

The US government shutdown has delayed key economic releases, including the September jobs report. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) update is now scheduled for October 24, just before the Fed’s October 28–29 meeting, keeping traders focused on upcoming data to gauge USD strength.

In Europe, political developments have also supported the Euro. French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu suspended the controversial 2023 pension reform, postponing any increase in the retirement age until after the 2027 presidential election. The move eased political tensions in France and helped EUR/USD gain further ground.

Traders will continue to monitor speeches from Fed officials later on Wednesday, including Stephen Miran, Christopher Waller, and Jeff Schmid. Any hawkish comments could strengthen the USD and limit the pair’s upside, while dovish signals are likely to keep the Euro supported.

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GBP/JPY Rises Ahead of Important UK Economic Data

Thursday saw GBP/JPY climb, rising past 202.50 after an initial dip in Asia that put forex traders in pause mode. They are now waiting for key UK economic data before making their next moves.

Given that recent job figures weren’t great, disappointing growth data may nudge the Bank of England toward further rate cuts. Consequently, the pound could struggle—perhaps even fall again against the yen.

Meanwhile, there is an anticipation that Japan’s central bank might lift interest rates once again this year, which will give strength to the yen. However, it is not certain, as the political unrest in Japan might make it more difficult for the bank to act quickly. It will help the pound’s strength against the Yen.

Despite gains, experts aren’t yet convinced prices in GBP/JPY forex trading will consistently rise, and folks in forex trading might want to see more robust purchases happen first before anticipating further increases. However, should values fall—and stay beneath 201.50—one can expect potential losses to grow.

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US Dollar Index Weakens Near 98.00 Amid US Shutdown and Fed Rate Cut Expectations

The dollar weakened for a fourth day running, hovering near 98.20 in Asia on Friday. This drop reflects investor unease stemming from the US government closure, alongside growing bets that the Fed will lower interest rates. All this is happening amidst difficulties resurfacing in relations between America and China.

For three weeks, the U.S. government remains closed because politicians haven’t agreed on how to fund things. As a result, important financial data is delayed, disrupting currency exchange transactions.

The heat is on—a Federal Reserve governor voiced support for lowering rates soon, while another wants even bigger cuts next year. To top it off, reports suggest people are buying less; moreover, job losses are increasing.

China’s proposed restrictions on rare earth shipments were condemned by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who called them both economic pressure and an attempt to control the global flow of these. Despite this sharp rebuke, American representatives indicated discussions haven’t been ruled out.

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EUR/CAD Gains Slightly Before Canada’s CPI Data

Tuesday saw a small lift for the EUR/CAD, hovering near 1.6345–1.6350 while everyone watched for Canada’s CPI numbers. Trading remained calm; neither the Euro nor the Canadian dollar strongly responded to what’s been happening economically.

The Canadian dollar lost some ground because surveys from the Bank of Canada aligned with predictions of further cuts to interest rates. Moreover, falling oil prices weighed on the Loonie (Canadian one-dollar coin), adding to its struggles in forex markets.

The Euro stumbled when S&P lowered France’s credit score, citing worries about the country’s spending plans as the reason. Though a softer Canadian dollar offered a bit of help, this news restricted how much the Euro could climb. Consequently, a slight strengthening of the US dollar further held back the Euro’s progress against the Canadian dollar.

People are eager to hear Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), speak at a climate conference today. However, based on her statements, the Euro is unlikely to change because she is unlikely to discuss financial issues.

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GBP/USD Remains Below 1.3400 as Uk Borrowing Rises More Than Expected

Wednesday saw GBP/USD struggle, hovering near 1.3380 as Asian markets opened. Clearly investors were hesitant, awaiting crucial UK inflation figures—September’s CPI alongside the RPI.

The British pound dipped when figures revealed the UK government took on an additional £7.2 billion in debt during the first six months of the financial year. Overall borrowing hit £99.8 billion—surpassing predictions of £92.6 billion from budget officials. Meanwhile, September saw a surge in debt interest payments, climbing 66% to £9.7 billion, a new high for that time of year.

The British Pound didn’t fall far despite a weak US dollar—troubled by the continuing government closure. Because this stalemate stretches into a fourth week, vital figures like Nonfarm Payrolls are stalled, so gauging how well the American economy performs is tough for those trading.

Nearly every economist surveyed by Reuters—115 from a group of 117—figures the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates a quarter point, bringing them to between 3.75% and 4%, sometime this month. And many anticipate another cut before January even comes.

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AUD/USD Marches Toward 0.6600 as Presidents Trump and Xi Hold Trade Talk

The Australian dollar rose on Thursday, hitting 0.6590 in Asia market hours. This shift occurred as the optimism bloomed when both American and Chinese leaders, President Trump and Mr. Xi, began discussions. Reports suggest discussions went well, covering topics like trade duties, soybeans, and specialized minerals, alongside TikTok. This good news gave investors confidence, so they embraced riskier ventures, consequently lifting the Australian dollar.

In addition to unexpectedly persistent inflation during the summer, August saw an increase in prices for consumers across the country. As a result, discussions about the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates quickly subsided. Despite a slight increase in unemployment, Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that the labor market remains strong.

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GBP/USD Reaches 1.3150 as Markets Expect December Fed Cut

The British Pound showed strength versus the US Dollar on Friday, hitting the mark of 1.3160 in Asian trading sessions. Because of expectations, the FED may lower rates in December; the GBP got a lift—CME FedWatch now shows a 71% chance, compared to 66% a day earlier. On the other hand, sentiment across markets held steady, especially in metals and commodities, as investors waited for fresh US economic numbers before making moves.

The dollar dipped a bit when Fed chief Jerome Powell said leaders are struggling to handle inflation alongside employment trends. Yet he noted rate changes could be delayed since fresh data isn’t coming in while the government shutdown continues. The majority of policymakers supported the central bank’s decision to only lower its key rate by 0.25%.

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Wall Street Continues Falling as Bank CEOs Warn of Market Pullback

Wall Street took a hit on Tuesday after some of the biggest names in banking sounded the alarm about overheated stock prices. The warnings set off a wave of selling across the major indexes. The Dow slid 0.53%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.17%. The Nasdaq tumbled 2.04%. That’s the worst single-day drop for all three since early October.

Tech stocks really felt the pain. Six out of the “Magnificent Seven” AI heavyweights finished in the red. Chipmakers didn’t escape either—the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 4%. When Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley CEOs started talking about a possible correction, investors got even more jittery. It’s been months of big gains, all driven by AI excitement, but now people are getting nervous.

A lot of analysts say stocks just got too expensive, too quickly. And then there’s the government shutdown. It’s dragging into its sixth week, and that’s making things messier. With official economic data stuck in limbo, everyone’s turning to important financial data reports like ADP’s employment survey to figure out what’s really going on.


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EUR/JPY Goes Above 178.00 Ahead of Key Eurozone Sentiment Data

EUR/JPY pushed above 178.00 in Tuesday’s Asian trading, landing around 178.35. The Euro’s picking up steam against the Yen as global risk appetite comes back to life. Everyone’s waiting to see the German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index—that data could shake things up for this pair.

As the funding bill passed, it put traders in a positive mood as US shutdown fears subsided. Definitely, it will make them more attracted to riskier options like the Euro; however, the Japanese Yen, considered a safe haven, will lose some of its appeal.

The Euro also found support from the ECB camp. Vice President Luis de Guindos called current rates “appropriate,” with inflation inching closer to their 2% goal. Other ECB officials sounded cautious but made it clear they’re keeping an eye out for any inflation surprises.

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