Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

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EUR/USD H4 Price Action and Indicators


The EUR/USD forex pair, representing the Euro and the US Dollar, is one of the most traded currency pairs globally. Currencies are influenced by a myriad of economic factors and news events, making their analysis crucial for traders. The EUR USD pair's chart performance today will be particularly impacted by several key economic indicators and events.
Fundamental analysis for the EURUSD today focuses on a range of economic indicators and events. The upcoming release of the German Factory Orders, with a forecast of 0.6%, could positively influence the Euro if the actual figures surpass expectations, signaling increased manufacturing activity. Similarly, the Italian Retail Sales forecast of 0.3% and the broader Eurozone Retail Sales expected at -0.2% will be watched closely as they gauge consumer spending. The European Parliamentary Elections and the ECB's monetary policy updates, including the Main Refinancing Rate and the ECB Press Conference, are high-impact events likely to cause significant volatility. Additionally, US data such as the Unemployment Claims forecasted at 220K will be crucial for the USD's performance, potentially affecting the EUR/USD pair's movement throughout the day.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the EUR-USD H4 chart, the price has been trending within an ascending channel, indicating a short-term bullish trend. The last 10 candles of EURUSD’s H4 chart exhibit a mixture of bullish and bearish sentiments, with five green candles and the recent bullish candles suggesting a potential upward continuation. The Bollinger Bands have slightly contracted, yet they remain relatively wide, reflecting ongoing volatility. The price oscillates around the middle band, indicating consolidation within the broader uptrend. The MACD indicator, however, shows a bearish signal with the MACD line crossing below the signal line and a red histogram, implying potential downward pressure. Despite the MACD's bearish outlook, the price's proximity to the middle band and the overall ascending channel suggests the bullish momentum could still persist, albeit with caution.

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CADJPY H4 Chart Key Insights and Technical Analysis

The CADJPY forex pair, representing the Canadian Dollar versus the Japanese Yen, is a critical currency pair in the forex market, frequently influenced by economic indicators from both Canada and Japan. The CADJPY forex pair is affected by various factors including commodity prices, economic policies, and trade relations between these two major economies. Traders often look at this pair to gauge risk sentiment and the overall health of the Canadian and Japanese economies.
Today, the CADJPY chart price may experience significant movements due to several high-impact economic announcements from Canada. The Employment Change report, forecasted at 24.8K, is crucial as it reflects the number of employed people, and a higher-than-expected number would be favorable for the CAD. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate, predicted to be 6.2%, is another vital indicator, where a lower-than-expected rate would indicate a healthier economy, boosting the CAD. The Capacity Utilization Rate, though of low impact, provides insight into the efficiency of resource usage in the Canadian economy, and a higher rate is considered positive. On the Japanese side, household spending and leading indicators are expected to have a low impact, with forecasts of 0.6% and 111.6%, respectively, providing a backdrop for potential minor influences on the JPY currency.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the CADJPY H4 chart, we observe the pair trading within Bollinger Bands, recently moving from the lower band towards the middle band. The MACD indicator shows a recent bullish crossover, indicating a potential upward momentum. However, the last five candles, after touching the middle band, have turned red and bearish, suggesting some resistance near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands have slightly tightened, indicating a decrease in volatility, although they remain wider compared to the past two weeks. The overall trend appears cautiously optimistic, with the price oscillating around the middle band, hinting at a possible consolidation phase before a significant move.

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EURGBP Technical Breakdown and Fundamental Impacts

The EUR GBP forex pair, commonly referred to as “Chunnel,” represents the exchange rate between the Euro and the British Pound. This pair is a crucial indicator of economic relations between the Eurozone and the United Kingdom, making it a popular choice among forex traders. In today’s context, the EURGBP forex pair is influenced by various upcoming economic events and fundamental factors.
Fundamentally, the EUR/GBP pair might experience subtle fluctuations due to the low-impact economic news from the Eurozone. The Italian Industrial Production m/m is forecasted to grow by 0.3%, and a higher-than-expected figure could slightly strengthen the Euro. Similarly, the Sentix Investor Confidence index, with a forecast of -1.5, if it exceeds expectations, could boost investor sentiment towards the Euro. Additionally, a speech by German Buba President Joachim Nagel could provide insights into future ECB monetary policy, potentially affecting the Euro’s strength. However, given the low impact expected from these events, significant volatility is not anticipated unless there are unexpected remarks or data.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the EUR/GBP H4 chart price, the recent candlestick patterns reveal a strong bearish momentum. The last five candles have moved sharply from the middle Bollinger Band towards the lower band, with the last three candles touching the lower band, indicating increased selling pressure. The Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, reflecting heightened market volatility and further bearish sentiment in EUR-GBP price. Additionally, the MACD indicator shows the MACD line crossing below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish trend. This technical setup suggests that the EUR/GBP pair is likely to continue its downward movement in the near term, barring any major fundamental shifts.

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GBPUSD Bearish Wave and Recovery Potential

The GBP/USD H4 price chart has experienced a significant bearish wave, with the price line descending well below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a strong downtrend. However, recent GBPUSD candlestick patterns on this pair’s price chart suggest a potential recovery. Notably, the formation of a Morning Star pattern, a powerful bullish reversal signal, hints at a possible upward momentum. This pattern is often seen as a reliable indicator that the bears are losing control, and the bulls may take over, making it a crucial point for traders looking for a trend reversal, as predicted by price action analysis on this pair.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the H4 price chart of the pair is showing positive divergence, reinforcing the recovery potential for GBP/USD. This divergence occurs when the RSI indicator forms higher lows while the price forms lower lows, suggesting that the bearish momentum is weakening. For clients seeking GBP/USD technical analysis and price prediction, these technical signals provide valuable insights. As the pair may be gearing up for a bullish reversal, traders should monitor these indicators closely, as well as the price behavior on the pair, considering the possibility of a strategic entry point in anticipation of a rebound.

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Analyzing USDJPY with Bollinger Bands and RSI

The USDJPY forex pair, often referred to by its nickname “Gopher,” represents the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Japanese yen. As one of the most traded currency pairs in the forex market, it is influenced by the economic activities of the United States and Japan. Traders closely monitor this pair for its high liquidity and the impact of economic indicators from both countries. Fundamental analysis for today suggests that the USDJPY might experience some volatility due to key economic data releases. From Japan, the Core Machinery Orders m/m report is expected, with a forecast of -2.9%. This low-impact indicator reflects changes in the total value of new private-sector purchase orders placed with manufacturers for machines, excluding ships and utilities. A higher-than-expected value would be positive for the JPY. Meanwhile, the US will release the Empire State Manufacturing Index, with a forecast of -12.5, indicating worsening conditions if the actual figure is below 0.0. Given its high impact, a better-than-expected result could boost the USD, as it is a leading indicator of economic health based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state. These contrasting data releases could create a dynamic trading environment for USDJPY forex pair today.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the H4 chart of USDJPY, we observe several technical indicators. The recent price action shows the last ten candles moving from the lower Bollinger Band toward the upper band, crossing the middle band. The last six candles have remained in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, with the most recent three candles being green and one bearish. The current candle is bullish so far. Bollinger Bands have tightened slightly, indicating reduced volatility, but are not tight enough to signal an imminent breakout. The RSI is positioned above the 50 level, suggesting a bullish momentum of USDJPY. The visible Fibonacci levels indicate key support and resistance zones that traders should watch. Overall, the chart signals a cautiously bullish sentiment, with potential resistance around the 158.063 level and support near 155.617.

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AUDUSD and Key Levels to Watch for a Breakout

The AUD/USD currency pair, often referred to by traders as the “Aussie,” is a major forex pair representing the exchange rate between the Australian dollar and the US dollar. This pair is heavily influenced by the economic policies and conditions in both Australia and the United States, making it a favorite among forex traders looking to capitalize on macroeconomic trends and news releases.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Based on the provided H4 chart and the recent news releases, there is an observable general bearish trend for the AUD/USD. However, recent price action suggests a potential shift towards a bullish trend, presenting a buying opportunity for traders. The support level at approximately 0.65903 has been tested multiple times, indicating a strong base, while the resistance level at 0.66165 is being approached again. This suggests that if the price breaks above this resistance, there could be a significant upward movement. In the context of AUDUSD analysis today, the recent Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish outlook and the Federal Reserve’s resource utilization data could further impact the pair’s movement, providing traders with opportunities to capitalize on these economic indicators. This detailed AUDUSD technical analysis today highlights the crucial levels and potential breakout points that traders should watch for, reinforcing the importance of staying updated with AUDUSD forecast live for informed trading decisions.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore Ltd”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis on H4 Chart

The EUR/USD, commonly known as “Fiber,” is the most traded currency pair in the forex market, reflecting the exchange rate between the euro (EUR) and the U.S. dollar (USD). This pair is heavily influenced by economic developments in both the Eurozone and the United States, making it a key indicator for global economic health. Today, traders are closely watching several low-impact Eurozone reports, including the German PPI m/m, ECB Economic Bulletin, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, and Consumer Confidence. Additionally, significant attention is on high-impact U.S. data such as Unemployment Claims, Building Permits, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. If the German PPI exceeds forecasts, it may provide slight bullish support for the euro. Conversely, strong U.S. data, particularly a lower-than-expected unemployment claims figure, could bolster the dollar, adding potential downward pressure on the EUR-USD pair.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The H4 chart of EUR/USD indicates a bullish momentum with the last 10 candles showing six green and bullish candles. The price has been moving from the middle Bollinger Band towards the upper band, signifying potential upward movement. The Bollinger Bands have tightened compared to the previous week, indicating decreased volatility yet a bullish trend. The RSI is around 53, moving away from oversold territory, supporting a positive outlook. The EURUSD chart price action is currently around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which acts as a significant support and resistance zone. This alignment of indicators suggests a continuation of the bullish trend, provided there are no major disruptions from the upcoming economic data.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore Ltd”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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