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GBP/USD: how long will the rally last? Kira Iukhtenko, FX BAZOOKA analyst As we expected yesterday, the cable met buyers at the lower boundary of the bearish channel at $1.6230 (this is also the 38.2% Fibo retracement from the $1.5850/6450 rally). On Wednesday GBP/USD jumped to $1.6365 (61.8%...

MS: trading on the FOMC Analysts at Morgan Stanley developed scenarios of the FOMC meeting results and supplied them by the suitable course of actions for traders: Scenario 1: No major policy changes Actions: Initially sell USD against most currencies; buy risky currencies vs. JPY. Then start...

Key currency options (Dec. 18) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m...

Dec. 18: Asian session Asian stock market edged up as investors are waiting for the Fed’s meeting results: today we’ll find out whether US central bank decides to start tapering QE or not. The Fed’s quantitative easing has been a major driver for global risk assets in recent years. MSCI’s...

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EUR/USD: levels to watch Analysts at ANZ point out that EUR/USD is in the period of prolonged consolidation off 2008’s high ($1.6040) and euro’s rebounds are regarded as corrective. Still, the current outlook is considered cautiously bullish “until there is a clearer sign that the gains are...

GBP/USD under pressure FX BAZOOKA analyst Kira Iukhtenko Currency markets remain thin on Tuesday as investors hold breath ahead of the tomorrow’s Fed policy announcement. British pound remains range-bound for a second consecutive day, trading in the $1.6280/6350 area. Great Britain released a...

Dec. 17: European session EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3780/45 area. Euro decline ahead of the important European data, but then got support on better than expected ZEW readings (euro zone’s economic sentiment rose from 60.2 to 68.3; German economic sentiment rose from 54.6 to 62.0)...

QE taper: what does economy say? According to Reuters forecast, majority of economists expect the Fed to start tapering QE in March. Still, the recent positive economic figures out of the US create room for doubts. What exactly do we mean by “positive economic figures”? Analysts at BK Asset...

BOJ Kuroda FT interview The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda gave interview to the Financial Times. Here are the essential points of his comments: - Japan is half way with the “three arrows” of Abenomics: inflation rose to 0.9%, but there’s still “a long way to go” to the 2% target. - There...

Dec. 17: Asian session Asian stock markets went higher on the back of rising US manufacturing output and a jump in euro zone business activity. MSCI Asia-Pacific index of shares outside of Japan advanced by 0.4%. Nikkei 225 climbed by 0.9%. Investors are waiting for the Fed’s 2-day meeting...

USD/JPY lower ahead of the Fed Kira Iukhtenko, FX BAZOOKA analyst Early Monday USD/JPY extended the bearish correction from a 5-year high of 103.90, falling ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. The pair found support at 102.60 and rebounded from here, but for now the upside...

EUR/USD: news from the battlefield EUR/USD has spent some tome under $1.3760 today, but then broke up $1.3774 (top of the Ichimoku Cloud at H4). French flash manufacturing and services PMIs came lower than expected (47.1 and 47.4 vs. forecasts at 49.1 and 48.9 respectively). German and euro...

AUD/USD: Elliott waves (Dec. 16) Weekly. The pair continues building the wave which takes the form of a zigzag. Now Aussie’s forming a final wave of this zigzag – (C). Chart Weekly AUD/USD Daily. At the moment, the wave V of (C) is being formed. Chart. Daily AUD/USD H4. The market is...

GBP/USD: Elliott waves (Dec. 16) Weekly. The pair may have completed the wave [c] of B. In the near future is expected to fall within the new downward wave. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily. Here’s the detailed layout. The structure of the last section can be seen in greater detail on H4...

EUR/USD: Elliott waves (Dec. 16) Weekly. In line with the forecast growth EUR/USD went up last week. Now euro’s forming the wave (y) of [D]. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Daily. The wave (y) is a double zigzag w – x – y. At the moment the wave x is being formed and it will likely take form of a...

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WSJ: estimating the FOMC outcome Wall Street Journal correspondent Jon Hilsenrath, an expert on the Fed and its policy, wrote an article on the central bank’s upcoming meeting. According to Hilsenrath, the improvement in US labor market (job growth averaged 195K a month in the past 12 months...

Key currency options (Dec. 16) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m...

Dec. 16: Asian session MSCI Asian Pacific Index of shares outside of Japan declined by 0.5%. Japanese Nikkei lost 1.2% despite a generally upbeat survey of the country’s business sector. USD/JPY declined to 102.70 after peaking to 103.90 on Friday. Yen strengthened as investors assess US...