#Brent and #WTI: how a single post crashed oil
What happened on March 23:
On March 23, the oil market experienced a sharp decline. Within a few hours,
#Brent crude lost more than $10, falling from $110 to $93, while
#WTI dropped from $100 to $84. However, it was not the decline itself that drew attention, but what preceded it.
According to Financial Times and Bloomberg, large trades were executed just 15 minutes before Donald Trump posted on Truth Social about “productive negotiations with Iran.” Within 27 seconds, around 6:50 a.m. New York time, about 6,200 futures contracts on
#Brent and
#WTI were sold. The total value of these transactions was approximately $580 million. Immediately after Trump’s post (at 7:04 a.m.), oil prices plunged, while stock indices moved higher.
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Denial from Iran:
Later, Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf described the reports about negotiations as “fake news aimed at manipulating markets.” There has been no official confirmation from the Iranian side.
White House reaction:
The U.S. administration called suspicions of insider trading “unsubstantiated and irresponsible,” adding that illegal actions by its employees would not be tolerated. The identities of the traders who executed the $580 million worth of deals have not been disclosed.
Current situation (March 25):
Oil has partially held its levels after “Trump’s Monday.” Today,
#Brent is trading around $95, while
#WTI is near $87. Market participants remain uncertain: on the one hand, geopolitical risks persist (military presence in the region, potential threats to the Strait of Hormuz), while on the other hand, U.S. oil inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels, easing fears of a supply shortage.
FreshForex analysts note: the market is currently moving not around real supply flows, but around news whose reliability is difficult to verify. The $580 million in trades executed 15 minutes before Trump’s post showed that those who entered the market before public information captured the move. In the coming days,
#Brent and
#WTI may remain under pressure, as the market quickly removes the “risk premium” when signals about negotiations appear. If the diplomatic narrative does not fade, quotes may continue to decline, although volatility is likely to remain sharp. When the market reacts to a headline within minutes,
the key question is whether you can open a trade before the news becomes official and starts influencing the price.
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