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Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Murrey Math Lines 12.06.2024 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has breached the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to test the 7/8 (159.37) level, break above it, and rise to the resistance at 8/8 (162.50). A breakout below the 5/8 (153.12) support level could cancel this scenario, leading to a potential decline to 4/8 (150.00).

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On M15, a breakout above the upper line of the VoltyChannel would provide an additional signal supporting the price increase.

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USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”
USDCAD quotes are in the overbought area on D1. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to break the 8/8 (1.3671) level and decline to the support at 7/8 (1.3549). Surpassing the +1/8 (1.3793) level could cancel this scenario, leading to a potential rise to the +2/8 (1.3916) resistance level.

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Read more - Murrey Math Lines (USDJPY, USDCAD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 13.06.2024 (GBPUSD, XAUUSD, USDCHF)

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is correcting after rebounding from the upper boundary of the bullish channel. The pair is moving above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting an uptrend. A test of the Cloud’s lower boundary at 1.2745 is expected, followed by a rise to 1.2925. A rebound from the upper boundary of the bearish channel would be an additional signal confirming the increase. The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the Cloud’s lower boundary, with the price securing below 1.2715, indicating a further decline to 1.2625.

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XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
Gold is bouncing off the resistance level. The instrument is moving below the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a downtrend. A test of the Cloud’s lower boundary at 2340 is expected, followed by a decline to 2230. A rebound from the upper boundary of the bearish channel would be an additional signal confirming the fall. This scenario could be cancelled by a breakout above the upper boundary of the Cloud, with the price securing above 2355, indicating a further rise to 2395. Conversely, a decline could be confirmed by a breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, with the price gaining a foothold below 2300.

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USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
USDCHF is rising after rebounding from the lower boundary of the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. The pair is moving inside the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a sideways trend. A test of the resistance area at 0.8960 is expected, followed by a decline to 0.8795. A rebound from the upper boundary of the bearish channel would signal the decline. The scenario could be cancelled by a breakout of the upper boundary of the Cloud, with the price securing above 0.9055, indicating a further rise to 0.9145. Conversely, a decline could be confirmed by a breakout below the lower boundary of the Head and Shoulders pattern, with the price establishing itself below 0.8865.

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Read more - Ichimoku Cloud Analysis (GBPUSD, XAUUSD, USDCHF)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
Murrey Math Lines 14.06.2024 (Brent, S&P 500)

Brent

Brent crude oil quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing downtrend. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to break the 2/8 (81.25) level, rebound, and fall to the support at 1/8 (78.12). Surpassing the 3/8 (84.38) level could invalidate this scenario, propelling the quotes to the resistance at 4/8 (87.50).

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On M15, a breakout of the VoltyChannel lower line will provide an additional signal for a price decline.

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S&P 500
S&P 500 quotes and the RSI are in the overbought areas on D1. In this situation, the price is expected to breach the +1/8 (5312.5) level and decline to the 8/8 (5000.0) support level. The scenario could be invalidated by surpassing the +2/8 (5625.0) level, which might reshuffle the Murrey indication, setting new price movement targets.

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Read more - Murrey Math Lines (Brent, S&P 500)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EUR continues to fall: the US dollar is to blame. Overview for 17.06.2024

The EURUSD position appears weak on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0702.

The EUR faces serious pressure due to the political imbalance in Europe and a rather mixed outlook. The euro-dollar exchange rate has declined by 0.8% over the last week, marking the maximum weekly fall since April and giving a reason for a detailed forecast for EURUSD on 17 June 2024.

The market is speculating on the risks of a budget crisis in the eurozone. This pertains to the situation in France, where the confrontation between the right and left parties is reaching a new level ahead of snap parliamentary elections, with increasing pressure on President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist administration.

All these factors increase the likelihood of implications for the economy in the heart of the eurozone. This situation appears significant and dubious and is unlikely to be resolved soon.

A fall in the euro rate indirectly benefits the US dollar.

Despite a massive sell-off in the French financial markets last week, the European Central Bank does not plan to initiate an emergency purchase of French bonds.

Technical analysis EURUSD

17062024-eurusd-h4.png


As the analysis for 17 June 2024 shows, EURUSD is developing another decline wave towards 1.0450. On the H4 chart, the market formed the first structure of this wave, with a target at 1.0666. Today, a consolidation range is expected to form above this level. With an upward breakout, a correction towards 1.0790 might follow. Once the correction is complete, a new decline structure in the EURUSD exchange rate could start, aiming for 1.0680. A breakout of this level will open the potential for a decline wave towards the local target of 1.0570. With a downward breakout of the range, a decline wave to 1.0570 is possible. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680. The market has completed a decline to the lower boundary of the Envelope, with a rise to its upper boundary being expected.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
Gold is correcting, facing pressure from a strong US dollar

Gold prices continue to correct after reaching an all-time high of 2,450 USD per troy ounce. Pressure mostly comes from the strengthening US dollar, which has received support after last week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The interest rate remained unchanged at 5.5%, and comments indicated that economic activity continues to increase steadily, with job gains remaining high and the unemployment rate low.

Although market participants hoped for a signal from the Federal Reserve about an upcoming interest rate reduction amid slowing US inflation, this did not occur. Analysts anticipate one interest rate cut of 0.25% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, gold has experienced steady growth of approximately 12.5% since the beginning of the year. This rise is driven by fundamental factors: the US treasury bond market is gradually losing its share as the main global reserve asset, with world central banks partially selling US treasury bonds and purchasing gold instead.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, gold quotes are experiencing a correction within a descending price channel after reaching a high of 2,450 in May. The price is currently hovering near the 2,320 mark, with a Triangle technical pattern forming on the chart. The direction of the price movement out of this pattern may indicate the near term.

18062024-gold.png


According to the forecast, if the quotes exit the Triangle pattern upwards and secure above 2,340, this will open the potential for growth towards the 2,388 resistance level. If the price of gold declines, dropping below the lower line of this pattern, a fall might continue towards a strong support area between 2,285 and 2,277.

Read more - Gold

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
Will the ECB meeting help strengthen the euro?

The US dollar continues to lose ground against the euro on Wednesday. The European Central Bank meeting may bring about some changes.

Today’s European Central Bank meeting on non-monetary policy issues may change the EURUSD rate. In anticipation of the ECB’s monthly and meeting reports, the euro may slightly strengthen against the US dollar.

Wednesday is rich in news with a weak economic effect, and this news typically does not significantly impact the quotes individually. The eurozone and US news may positively affect the EURUSD forecast, but this influence will be short-lived. When the news for 19 June 2024 is released, the EURUSD pair may slightly strengthen before further losing ground.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD 4Н chart analysis for 19 June 2024 shows a corrective wave towards 1.0760. A decline structure is expected to start, aiming for 1.0711. A new consolidation range might practically develop within these levels. With an upward breakout of the range, a correction might continue towards 1.0800. Subsequently, the EURUSD price could decline to 1.0660. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline wave directly towards 1.0660, potentially continuing towards the local target of 1.0570.

19062024-eurusd.png


This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680. This level is considered crucial for a downward wave in the EURUSD pair. The market has received a downward rebound from the Envelope centre. If the market gains a foothold above the 1.0760 level, the corrective wave might continue towards the Envelope’s upper boundary at 1.0800. If the market fails to secure above the 1.0760 level, the wave could expand towards 1.0630, potentially continuing to 1.0570, with another touch of the Envelope’s lower boundary.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EUR is on standby, awaiting news

The leading currency pair is consolidating. Investors are conserving energy ahead of a new batch of statistics and external information.

The euro against the US dollar is stable around the 1.0738 mark on Thursday. The EURUSD pair has been rising for three consecutive days, but current market conditions have set the stage for a temporary pause.

Yesterday, no significant statistics were published due to the Juneteenth holiday in the US and a quiet day in the eurozone. However, the macroeconomic calendar is set to liven up today. Germany will present data on the Producer Price Index for May, where some improvement in numbers is expected. Subsequently, the US will release reports on the number of building permits issued in May and the number of new housing starts. Both are expected to show a slight increase.

The US will also present fresh weekly data on the number of initial unemployment claims. The figure has likely improved compared to last week’s parameters and is expected to be 235,000 compared to the previous 242,000.

Overall, the currency market looks calm. The excitement about the Federal Reserve interest rates discussion has somewhat subsided, allowing major currencies to stabilise.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range is forming around the 1.0735 level, a crucial development for today’s EURUSD forecast. An upward breakout of the range will open the potential for a further correction towards 1.0800. Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave might develop, aiming for 1.0680. With a downward breakout, the trend could continue towards 1.0630. If this level also breaks, this will open the potential for a decline wave towards the local target of 1.0570.

20062024-eurusd-ezgif.com-webp-to-jpg-converter.jpg


This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680. This level is considered crucial for a downward wave in the EURUSD rate. The market has received support at the 1.0724 level and is attempting to secure above the Envelope’s centre. Practically, a further rise to the Envelope’s upper boundary could follow. After the price tests this boundary, a decline wave is expected to start, aiming for the Envelope’s lower boundary.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
JPY struggles amid widespread decline

The Japanese yen is undergoing a correction after the release of the May core consumer price index. The likelihood of continued weakening remains high.

Japan released the nationwide core consumer price index for May. In the previous period, the index was 2.2%. Analysts had predicted a 2.6% rise, but the actual figure was 2.5%, indicating an improvement, although less than expected.

The positive trend did not save the yen from losing positions against the US dollar. A higher index value typically suggests a positive outlook and strengthens the yen. However, in the current situation, the data did not favour the yen’s exchange rate, which has led to its further weakening.

The US Federal Reserve’s report on monetary policy may “add fuel to the fire” and weaken the yen even more.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the USDJPY H4 chart, the fifth corrective wave continues to develop, with a target at 159.35. The price has reached the local target of 158.80. Today, 21 June 2024, a consolidation range is expected to form around this level. A downward breakout of the range will open the potential for a decline to 158.20 (testing from above), followed by a rise towards 159.35, representing the main target for correction. Once the correction is complete, a decline wave might start, aiming for 155.50.

21062024-usdjpy-ezgif.com-webp-to-jpg-converter.jpg


This USDJPY rate scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a correction matrix with a pivot point at 155.70. The market has completed a growth structure towards the Envelope’s upper boundary at 158.80. A decline wave is expected to begin, targeting its centre – 158.20, with an onward growth wave structure aiming for 159.35 as the main target.

Read more - USDJPY

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
The fall of the pound continues for the second week

On Monday, the pound keeps losing ground against the US dollar, continuing its decline since 12 June 2024.

British industrialists expect a slight improvement in the UK Industrial Orders Index (CBI). The CBI came out worse than expected in the last reporting period, but now the analysts are waiting for more favourable data, which will not help improve the GBPUSD rate.

The indicator is expected to settle around the -26 level in the current reporting period compared to -33 in the previous one. Index values below zero indicate a decline in the volume of industrial orders and have a negative impact on the GBPUSD rate.

Also on Monday, the CFTC data on the number of net speculative positions in GBP among traders in the New York and Chicago futures markets will be released. Over the past four weeks, the number of positions in GBPUSD has been growing, which may indicate an increase in demand for this asset among speculators.

GBPUSD technical analysis

According to the analysis on 24 June 2024, GBPUSD is developing another decline wave towards 1.2600. On the GBPUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range has formed around 1.2666. This level is crucial in the current decline wave.

If the price falls below the range's boundary, another decline wave could develop towards a local target at 1.2600. After this wave is completed, a corrective GBPUSD growth structure towards 1.2666 (test from below) may begin, followed by another decline wave with a first target at 1.2477.

24062024-gbpusd.png


This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.2666. The market continues to decline to the lower boundary of the Envelope. After reaching 1.2600, a growth wave towards the Envelope's centre at 1.2666 may begin.

After that, a decline to the Envelope's lower boundary at 1.2477 is possible. Only after the price reaches this level may the decline wave be considered complete. A correction to the Envelope's upper boundary may follow.

Read more - GBPUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
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AUD rises to a two-week peak, supported by several factors

The AUDUSD pair benefits from the RBA’s tough stance, the US dollar’s weakness, and attacks on the yen.

The Australian dollar has reached a two-week high against the US dollar and is hovering near the 0.6660 mark.

The main support for the Aussie came from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which maintains a hawkish stance on monetary policy. The RBA is expected to lower the interest rate much later than other major central banks.

Thus, the markets missed nearly every chance of an interest rate cut from the RBA in 2024. Overall easing is only projected to happen by the end of 2025, with an average expectation of 43 basis points.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that the regulator discussed the need for an interest rate hike at its June meeting without even considering a rate reduction.

The AUD rate is currently benefitting from short attacks on the JPY and the local weakening of the US dollar rate.

Later this week, the market will focus on Australia’s inflation data.

AUDUSD technical analysis

A consolidation range has formed above the 0.6630 level on the AUDUSD Н4 chart and extended to 0.6677 following an upward breakout. Subsequently, the market returned to the 0.6630 level, which is crucial for the AUDUSD forecast for 25 June 2024. With an upward breakout, the price might rise to 0.6750. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline in the AUDUSD quotes to 0.6565. If this level breaks, the trend might continue towards 0.6424, representing an estimated target.

25062024-audusd.png


This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 0.6555. The market has reached a local target of the growth wave at the Envelope’s upper boundary – 0.6710. Following this, the price declined to its lower boundary at 0.6577 as part of a correction. Today, the market continues to develop a consolidation range around the Envelope’s central line at 0.6630. With a downward breakout, a decline wave could follow, targeting the Envelope’s lower boundary at 0.6565. An upward breakout might enable a growth wave, aiming for its upper boundary at 0.6750.

Read more - AUDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EUR is declining ahead of the Eurogroup meeting

Today’s EURUSD forecast appears pessimistic as the news landscape may confirm the technical analysis conclusion about the pair’s decline.

The Eurogroup meeting and a speech by ECB representative Philip R. Lane are scheduled for Wednesday. They might provide insights into the future trajectory of the eurozone’s monetary policy.

The US will release data, including May 2024 new home sales, building permits, and crude oil stocks.

If these indicators exceed forecasts and previous readings, they may collectively support the US dollar, which will be considered in today’s EURUSD forecast.

By the end of the business day, the US will publish the results of bank stress tests the Federal Reserve conducted on 34 of the largest US banks to evaluate their ability to increase dividends and buy back shares. Although such tests are rare, their results may affect the US dollar by contributing to its strengthening or weakening, which will cause increased volatility in the market.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD is currently in a consolidation phase around the 1.0717 level without any clear trend. With an upward breakout of the range, a correction might continue to 1.0760. After reaching this level, the price could decline to 1.0680. Subsequently, another corrective structure might develop, aiming for 1.0770 as the main target for correction. Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave is expected to start, targeting 1.0680, a crucial level for the EURUSD forecast for 26 June 2024. A breakout of this level will open the potential for a decline to 1.0610, possibly continuing to 1.0570, the estimated local target.

26062024-eurusd.jpg


The Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680 technically confirm this scenario. This level is considered crucial for a downward wave in the EURUSD rate. The market has breached the Envelope’s centre and is consolidating below the 1.0717 level. The wave could decline to its lower boundary today.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
JPY falling due to fundamental discrepancies in Fed and BoJ policies

The USDJPY rate declined on Thursday, 27 June 2024, unable to hold at the 38-year high of 160.85 reached on Wednesday.

The Japanese authorities expressed concerns about the sharp decline in the yen. The country’s major financial policymaker, Masato Kanda, said they were closely watching the situation and were ready to act. Renowned currency analyst Masafumi Yamamoto warns that the USDJPY rate may rise to 162.00 if the Japanese authorities do not take prompt action to support the national currency.

However, traders are unsure whether the Japanese authorities’ verbal or actual actions can halt the yen’s decline. The yen’s weakness is attributed to investor uncertainty about the pace of Fed interest rate cuts. The opinion is that if the BoJ slightly adjusts its zero-rate policy at the 30-31 July meeting, this will unlikely significantly impact the yen rate.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the USDJPY H4 chart, the market received support at 160.00. Today, 27 June 2024, a rise to 161.30 is possible, followed by a correction to 160.00 (testing from above). Subsequently, the price could rise to 162.00, potentially continuing the uptrend to 163.30. Once this wave is complete, a decline might start, aiming for 158.90 as the first target.

27062024-usdjpy.png


The Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a 158.90 pivot point technically confirm this USDJPY scenario. The market has received support at the Envelope’s central line and continues growth to its upper boundary. A decline wave is expected from the 161.30 level to the Envelope’s centre at 160.00. Subsequently, a consolidation range could form around this level. With an upward breakout, the growth wave might expand to 163.30. A decline wave aiming for the Envelope’s lower boundary is expected only after the price reaches this level.

Read more - USDJPY

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
NZDUSD declines again: the primary reason is the strong US dollar

The NZDUSD pair is falling, facing strong pressure from the US dollar and reaching mid-May lows.

The New Zealand dollar-to-US dollar rate continues to decline with regular intervals for consolidation, but the overall trend is steady and quick. The NZDUSD pair is falling to 0.6059.

The current values are the lowest since mid-May.

The market is preparing for the evening’s US releases. In particular, it is interested in core PCE data, one of the most significant inflation reports for the Federal Reserve. The figures may provide insight into the Fed’s future actions on interest rates, which is currently offering strong support for the USD. As for news from New Zealand, it remains relatively neutral. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s stance remains unchanged: it will maintain a stable monetary policy at least until mid-2025 due to ongoing inflation growth risks.

However, investors believe that the RBNZ will lower interest rates in November.

Although the NZD rate declined by 1.2% in June, the Kiwi dollar gained 1.5% over the quarter.

NZDUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, NZDUSD has completed the first decline wave towards 0.6068 and corrected to 0.6108. Subsequently, the price is expected to fall to the local target of 0.6038. A consolidation range might form around 0.6073, a crucial level for the NZDUSD forecast for 28 June 2024. A downward breakout of this level will open the potential for a decline in the NZDUSD quotes to 0.6038, potentially continuing to 0.5995, the estimated target.

28062024-nzdusd.png


The Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 0.6070 technically confirm this scenario. The market has reached the first target of the decline wave near the Envelope’s lower boundary at 0.6068 and then undergone a correction towards its centre at 0.6108. Today, the market is under pressure to fall to 0.6038. If this level breaks, the price might decline to the Envelope’s lower boundary at 0.5995.

Read more - NZDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EUR has risen: all eyes on French policy

The EURUSD pair partially recovered its previous decline on Monday. The far-right party was not strong enough in the first round of the French election, which was positive for the market.

EURUSD starts the week rising. The EURUSD pair increased to 1.0753 and returned to levels seen on 13 May.

Investors are now primarily focused on data from the first round of the French snap election. Although the far-right was again winning, it did not appear as strong as before, favouring observers and boosting the EUR rate.

Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) won the first round of the parliamentary election on Sunday. However, the party secured fewer votes than expected.

The euro has declined since France’s President Emmanuel Macron called snap elections.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD is currently in a consolidation phase around the 1.0714 level. This level is considered crucial for the current decline wave in the EURUSD pair. Today, 1 July 2024, a corrective phase is expected, targeting 1.0760. Subsequently, a decline wave might start, aiming for 1.0600 and potentially continuing to the local target of 1.0573. The Elliott Wave structure with the centre at 1.0714 technically confirms this scenario.

01072024-eurusd.png


From the fundamental analysis perspective, the EURUSD pair is supported. Upcoming economic reports will be crucial for determining short-term movements in the EURUSD rate. Technical indicators point to a further decline to the 1.0600 and 1.0573 targets.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
AUDUSD is falling: the market does not believe in interest rate hikes

The Australian dollar is declining for the second consecutive day. The AUDUSD pair is returning to fluctuations within the traded range.

The AUDUSD pair declines to 0.6638 on Tuesday, retreating from a two-week high despite the recent hints from the Reserve Bank of Australia about a potential interest rate increase.

According to the RBA’s June meeting minutes, monetary policymakers prefer to remain vigilant about inflation risks. They believe that significant price rises may necessitate a noticeable rate hike. However, the RBA is confident it can bring inflation down to the 2% target while maintaining economic and employment stability.

Investors estimate a one-in-three chance of an RBA interest rate hike at its August meeting.

On a global level, the Aussie is under pressure from the US dollar due to increased treasury bond yields.

AUDUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair has formed a consolidation range above 0.6630 and, after breaking above it, extended the range to 0.6677. Subsequently, the quotes returned to the 0.6633 level, crucial for the AUDUSD forecast for 2 July 2024. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline in the AUDUSD rate to 0.6555, representing the estimated target.

02072024-audusd.png


The Aussie is under pressure from the USD due to increased treasury bond yields. The AUDUSD technical analysis points to a further correction towards 0.6555.

Read more - AUDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
The yen is deteriorating: JPY continues to depreciate

The USDJPY pair is hitting 37-year highs, with the Bank of Japan’s inaction working against the yen.

The Japanese yen is suffering considerably from this depreciation. Following financial interventions in May by the Japanese government and regulator, the yen stabilised for some time. However, it started weakening on 6 May, and the USDJPY pair has continuously risen since then.

The primary reason for the yen’s weakness is the significant difference in monetary approaches and interest rates between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. The BoJ interest rate remains at zero. The Bank of Japan’s inaction on the interest rate issue and the lack of a plan to normalise monetary policy exert pressure on the JPY. At the same time, the market speculates that the BoJ may raise the rate or give respective instructions at its meeting in late July.

The weak yen negatively impacts household consumption, increasing import costs and heightening inflationary pressure.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the USDJPY H4 chart, a support level formed at 161.00, with the wave continuing to develop towards 161.85. Today, 3 July 2024, the price might reach this level and correct to 161.00 (testing from above). Subsequently, the quotes could rise to 163.30, representing the main target of this growth wave.

03072024-usdjpy.png


The yen’s depreciation remains the main scenario. The USDJPY technical analysis suggests the growth wave extension to the 163.30 level, followed by a decline to the 158.90 and 157.40 targets.

Read more - USDJPY

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EURUSD has risen significantly, and statistics have nothing to do with it

Risk appetite is pushing up the EURUSD pair. US statistics came out mixed, providing no clear signals.

The EURUSD pair has risen markedly over the last two sessions and stabilised at 1.0785 on Thursday.

Yesterday, the market had a plethora of macro statistics to consider, which have been factored into prices overall. The first signals about the state of the employment market have been received and analysed: the ADP number of jobs in the US private sector increased by 150,000 in June compared to the forecasted 163,000 and the previous 152,000, providing a neutral signal. Let us see what Friday’s NFP release will bring.

The services PMI appears uneven. The official PMI report showed a decrease to 48.8 points in June from 53.8 points in May, a warning signal. At the same time, Markit observations reflected an increase to 55.3 in June from the previous 54.8. Readings over 50.0 points indicate improvement and expansion.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD has corrected to 1.0815. Today, 4 July 2024, a consolidation range could form below this level. With a downward breakout of the range, a new decline wave might start, aiming for 1.0730, a crucial level for this wave. Once the price reaches this level, it could correct to 1.0777 (testing from below). Subsequently, the decline structure might develop, targeting 1.0677 and potentially continuing to 1.0630.

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Risk appetite supports the EUR position. Technical indicators for today’s EURUSD forecast point to a further decline to the 1.0680, 1.0600, and 1.0555 targets.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
NZD has reached new weekly highs, driven by the weak US dollar

The NZDUSD pair has risen for the fourth consecutive day, driven by the US dollar's weakness.

The NZDUSD pair rises for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 0.6116.

The New Zealand dollar gains ground due to the US dollar's weakness. The USD previously declined after the release of the ADP employment data in the US private sector and amid decreasing business activity in the services sector. These factors strengthened the market view that the Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs by the end of 2024. The US dollar fell, giving other currencies a chance to rise.

At its previous meeting, the Federal Reserve noted an inflation shift in the right direction but believed prices were not moving fast enough to revise interest rates.

Some Federal Reserve monetary policymakers stress the importance of being patient and consistent when making interest rate decisions. Others believe that it is time to raise rates as inflation is rising.

NZDUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, NZDUSD has corrected towards 0.6128. The market is forming a consolidation range around 0.6115, which could extend up to 0.6134 today, 5 July 2024. Once the price reaches this level, a new decline wave is expected to start, aiming for 0.6090. Breaking above this level will open the potential for a decline to 0.6040, potentially continuing to 0.6023, the estimated target.

05072024-nzdusd.png


The New Zealand dollar is strengthening, supported by the weakness of the US currency. The NZDUSD technical analysis suggests the completion of the correction and the beginning of a new decline wave to the 0.6090 and 0.6040 targets.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
EURUSD remains elevated but is not too high

The EURUSD pair continues its ascent. However, the euro faces risks due to the French political situation.

The EURUSD pair appears relatively expensive, hovering at 1.0828 on Monday.

Although US nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 191,000, the data fell short of May readings. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.4%. As expected, average hourly earnings in June expanded by 0.3% m/m following a 0.4% increase in May.

The market viewed the statistical data as soft, heightening expectations of a September US Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which pressured the USD position.

However, the euro also has reservations. The French election results created uncertainty about the country’s financial prospects. The left-wing alliance may have received an unexpected number of votes, creating challenging conditions for forming the French parliament.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD received support at 1.0806. A consolidation range has practically formed around this level, which is considered crucial for the EURUSD pair today, 8 July 2024. Breaking above the range will open the potential for a growth wave to the local target of 1.0900. After reaching this target, the price is expected to fall to 1.0840 (testing from above). Subsequently, another growth structure could develop, aiming for 1.0944

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The EURUSD pair remains elevated, but risks are mounting. Technical indicators point to a potential further correction to the 1.0840, 1.0900, and 1.0944 targets.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
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EURUSD: Nagel’s and Powell’s speeches may give hope for the euro’s strengthening

The EURUSD pair continues strengthening ahead of officials’ speeches and amid the rising US national debt.

Wednesday, 10 July 2024, is rich in speeches from the central bank and Fed’s chiefs and officials. A speech by the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank (concurrently a member of the ECB Governing Council) may shed light on the future EU monetary policy and help strengthen the euro against the US dollar. A subsequent speech by Deutsche Bundesbank official Sabine Mauderer may bolster the words of the Deutsche Bundesbank president.

Comments from the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are due after the US trading session opens, potentially adding to the market volatility and providing insight into the future of US interest rates. The increasing US national debt also works against the US dollar.

Although any market movements can be expected in this environment, the general situation does not favour the US currency at this stage. The euro is more likely to strengthen than the US dollar.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range continues to develop above 1.0806. This level is considered crucial for the EURUSD pair today, 10 July 2024, with the market receiving support at this level. A rise to 1.0844 is expected. If this level breaks, the price could climb to the local target of 1.0888. After reaching this target, the price is expected to decline to 1.0840 (testing from above). Subsequently, another growth structure could follow, aiming for 1.0900.

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The Federal Reserve chair’s speech, rising US national debt, and technical indicators suggest a potential correction towards the 1.0888 and 1.0900 targets.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
 
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