Amega Forex Analysis

[Amega]

Hello traders and investors!
In this thread, we will be publishing daily market analysis as well as news alerts for significant events that are likely to affect financial markets volatility. We hope you will find these posts useful and we would very much appreciate your feedback and comments. Please keep in mind that our analysis are intended for educational/informational purposes only, and do not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations.

 

[Amega]

USDCAD 03.06.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bearish

The bear market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.21404-1.21242 and it has a potential to reach the target zone №2 1.19804-1.19646. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 1.21899-1.21736. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone 1.21899-1.21736 (175 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

Don’t miss the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls announcement as it is likely to cause financial market volatility.

 

[Amega]

GOLD overview 03.06.2021

Gold falls on lower U.S. jobless claims.

Gold falling strongly today after initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell below 400,000 last week for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic started more than a year ago. This is pointing to a strengthening labour market and boosting the dollar – leading to the wide scale closing of the previously initiated gold longs. Gold is expected to move downwards over the next six to 12 months on expectation Fed will start to move toward hiking interest rates – in response to the heartening US economy. Focus now turns to key U.S. non-farm payroll numbers due on Friday – with better than expected number expected to drive gold price further down.

Next support to watch – 1870.00

 

[Amega]

NZDUSD 04.06.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bearish

The bear market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 0.71260-0.71165 and it has a potential to reach the target zone №2 0.70310-0.70215. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 0.72303-0.72208. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone 0.72303-0.72208 (105 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

EURUSD overview 04.06.2021

EURUSD rises on lower Nonfarm Payrolls.

EURUSD rising today under the effect of the weaker U.S. dollar as the markets are reacting to the latest release of the USA Nonfarm Payrolls data – which showed that US gained only 559K jobs in May – much lower than 664K expected by the economists. The data still indicates gradual economic recovery in USA – meaning the Fed will retain status quo for now – adding to the bearish pressure on U.S. dollar and driving the pair up. The improving public health situation and massive fiscal stimulus are supporting the economy with half of the American population has been fully vaccinated – which still means the upward gains can be temporary for EURUSD.

Next resistance to watch – 1.2216

 

[Amega]

EURUSD 07.06.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bearish

The bear market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.20903-1.20815 and it has a potential to reach the target zone №2 1.20023-1.19935. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 1.22007-1.21919. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone 1.22007-1.21919 (100 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

BRENT overview 07.06.2021

Oil rises on oil output restraint.

Oil rising today as the traders are responding to signs of continued output restraint, especially from the U.S. shale sector, which is expected to lead to a further reduction in inventories over the second half of the year. Since the start of last week, front-month crude futures prices have risen to multi-year highs, as the market signals the need for an increase in output. The output has still be restrained by some of the key exporters – driving the prices up. Besides this OPEC and its allies expect oil inventories to fall further in the coming months, OPEC’s secretary general said on Monday, suggesting the demand can outstrip the supply in the near-term perspective – which is a bullish signal for the oil.

Next resistance to watch – 74.00

 

[Amega]

GBPUSD 08.06.2021

Medium-term trend: Bullish

The bull market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.42436-1.42264 and it is going to the target zone №2 1.44156-1.43984. Any price reduction is considered like corrective. The best prices to try to have a long position are the control resistance zone 1.40764-1.40592. In case of the price is fixed below the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bear market and all long positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a long position near the control resistance zone 1.40764-1.40592 (190 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current maximum. If this maximum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points up. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

Watch out for the upcoming Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision announcement and its impact on USDCAD & other CAD pairs.

 

[Amega]

GBPUSD overview 08.06.2021

Sterling falls on reopening concerns.

Sterling falling today as the investors are starting to be concerned about the timing of UK reopening after Matt Hancock, UK Secretary of State for Health of the United Kingdom, said the Government is ‘absolutely open’ to delaying lockdown easing. He acknowledged that the rise in delta variant cases may delay the government’s plan to lift most remaining lockdown restrictions on June 21. He also said he wouldn’t rule out continuing measures such as face masks in public settings and working from home where possible – jeopardising the prospects of the full recovery that has been underpinning sterling for the last weeks. The other part of the pair – USD – is also driving the pair down on the rising USD bullishness on signs the upcoming inflation data from USA might prompt Fed to move toward rising the interest rates in USA.

Next support to watch – 1.4085

 

[Amega]

USDCHF 09.06.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bearish

The bear market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 0.90215-0.90109 and it has a potential to reach the target zone №2 0.89153-0.89050. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 0.90660-0.90554. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone 0.90660-0.90554 (120 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

Watch out for the upcoming ECB Interest Rate Decision announcement and its impact on EURUSD & other EUR pairs.

 

[Amega]

USDJPY 10.06.2021

Medium-term trend: Bullish

The bull market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 109.958-109.837 and it is going to the target zone №2 111.180-111.057. Any price reduction is considered like corrective. The best prices to try to have a long position are the control resistance zone 109.243-109.136. In case of the price is fixed below the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bear market and all long positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a long position near the control resistance zone 109.243-109.136 (120 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current maximum. If this maximum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points up. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

EURUSD overview 10.06.2021

EURUSD falls on robust US CPI.

EURUSD falling today on the strong U.S. dollar inflows after US CPI beat estimates with 5% and Core CPI reached 3.8%. The pair is also pressured down after ECB left its rates unchanged and refrained from tapering. The ECB further noted that it will continue to conduct net asset purchases under Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) with a total envelope of €1,850 billion until at least the end of March 2022. Lagarde added that “ECB stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry.” This is leading the traders to expect the rates to remain on hold in Eurozone – adding to the bearish pressure on EURUSD.

Next support to watch – 1.2105

 

[Amega]

USDCAD 11.06.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bearish

The bear market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.21404-1.21242 and it has a potential to reach the target zone №2 1.19804-1.19646. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 1.21899-1.21736. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone 1.21899-1.21736 (175 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

GOLD overview 11.06.2021

Gold falls on stronger dollar.

Gold falling today on the strong U.S. dollar inflows as inflation concerns are starting to strengthen among the investors. Data showed U.S. consumer prices rose strongly in May, leading to the biggest annual increase in nearly 13 years, while jobless claims dropped to their lowest in nearly 15 months last week. The dollar index rose today reducing gold’s appeal for investors holding other currencies and adding to the bearish pressure on the precious metal. Focus now shifts to Fed’s June 15-16 policy meeting – which should give clues on to how the Fed will handle the overheating USA economy – which would be an important signal for gold prices.

Next support to watch – 1869.00

 

[Amega]

EURUSD 14.06.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bearish

The bear market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.20903-1.20815 and it has a potential to reach the target zone №2 1.20023-1.19935. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 1.21893-1.21805. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone 1.21893-1.21805 (100 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

BRENT overview 14.06.2021

Oil rises on increased demand.

Oil continues to rise steadily supported by economic recovery and the prospect of fuel demand growth as vaccination campaigns accelerate worldwide. The price is driven up by the combined effect of demand optimism and OPEC+ supply cuts. Motor vehicle traffic is returning to pre-pandemic levels in North America and much of Europe which together with plans to donate of 1 billion vaccine doses to poor nations increases oil demand expectations. If the inoculation of the global population accelerates further, that could mean an even faster acceleration in oil demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that it expected global demand to return to pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2022. The OPEC+ group has been restraining production to support prices – adding to the bullish pressure on oil.

Next resistance to watch – 74.72

 

[Amega]

GOLD 15.06.2021

Medium-term trend: Bullish

The bull market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1905.61-1901.11 and it is going to the target zone №2 1950.61-1946.11. Any price reduction is considered like corrective. The best prices to try to have a long position are the control resistance zone 1867.75-1863.25. In case of the price is fixed below the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bear market and all long positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a long position near the control resistance zone 1867.75-1863.25 (500 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current maximum. If this maximum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points up. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.