USD/CHF tried to draw support from 38.2% retracement of 0.9041 to 0.9771 at 0.9492 and turned sideway last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. On the upside, above 0.9657 minor resistance will indicate that pull back from 0.9771 is finished and turn bias back to the upside. Further break of 0.9771 will target 0.9916 medium term cluster resistance next. On the downside, however, below 0.9477 will likely extend the fall from 0.9771 to 61.8% retracement at 0.9320 instead
medium term rebound from 0.7065 is still in progress and is viewed as a correction in the larger down trend. Thus, in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948) to limit upside and bring reversal. Though, sustained trading above there will start to argue that whole down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed and will bring stronger rally through parity to 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9594 from 0.8930 at 1.0493
long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in favor to resume for another low below 0.7065. However, decisive break of mentioned 0.9916/48 cluster resistance will in raise the odds the such down trend is already completed and would pave the way back to 1.1288/3283 resistance zone.
USD/CHF is to range-trade undermined by franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF downside limited by broadly stronger demand for safe-haven USD as investor risk tolerance stays subdued amid U.S. fiscal cliff fears.
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