EUR/NZD - Elliott Wave Analysis for July 30 - 2012
EUR/NZD 4 Hourly
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
S1: 1.5167 R1: 1.5226
S2: 1.5131 (low) R2: 1.5250
S3: 1.5100 R3: 1.5287
In long-term we expect that an important bottom is in place at 1.5131, but we need more proof, which we will get if the break above resistance at 1.5443 occurs. As we are in the very early parts of a possible new major rally, we must expect the market to test all of our patience, but we will have to trade referring to the chart.
Here we have seen a break below support at 1.5220 and a new test of the 1.5131 low. Under the Elliott Wave Principle a 100% retracement of wave one is allowed, but we cannot see just one pip below as that would force a change in the count and delay the coming new uptrend.
As long as important support at 1.5131 protects the downside, we should still be expecting a new rally above minor resistance at 1.5333 to add confidence in our count, but a break above 1.5443 is required to confirm the bottom at 1.5131 for a continuation higher towards 1.5665 and possibly even 1.5830.
A break below 1.5131 will force a change to the above counts and call for a move towards 1.5096 as the next possible bottom target.
You should be long EUR against NZD from 1.5250; 1.5265 or 1.5295 with a 1.5125 stop. The very deep decline in red wave ii has delivered a new possible buying opportunity here at 1.5180 with a low risk stop at 1.5125. Or you could choose to set the stop at 1% risk from the entry at 1.5030, which will keep you in the position if a break below 1.5131 calls for a move towards 1.5096 before a new possible bottom could be seen.
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