Christine
04-16-2012, 05:20 PM
Recoveries from financial crisis’ are slow because the economy needs to work off excess credit
Compared with the avg recovery 2012 GDP should be lowered 0.6-0.8 percentage points
2013 lower 05-0.7 pp
2014 should be almost normal
Full report (http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2012/el2012-12.html?utm_source=home)
“Any forecast that assumes the recovery from the Great Recession will resemble previous post-World War II recoveries runs the risk of overstating future economic growth, lending activity, interest rates, investment, and inflation,” wrote Oscar Jorda, a research adviser.
This would have been a great paper…two years ago. At this point, it’s conventional wisdom.
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/forexlive-rss?d=yIl2AUoC8zA (http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/forexlive-rss?a=vuQBNzPEV-o:tnlFxpvLaD0:yIl2AUoC8zA) http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/forexlive-rss?i=vuQBNzPEV-o:tnlFxpvLaD0:V_sGLiPBpWU (http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/forexlive-rss?a=vuQBNzPEV-o:tnlFxpvLaD0:V_sGLiPBpWU) http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/forexlive-rss?d=qj6IDK7rITs (http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/forexlive-rss?a=vuQBNzPEV-o:tnlFxpvLaD0:qj6IDK7rITs)
Read more... (http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/forexlive-rss/~3/vuQBNzPEV-o/)
Compared with the avg recovery 2012 GDP should be lowered 0.6-0.8 percentage points
2013 lower 05-0.7 pp
2014 should be almost normal
Full report (http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2012/el2012-12.html?utm_source=home)
“Any forecast that assumes the recovery from the Great Recession will resemble previous post-World War II recoveries runs the risk of overstating future economic growth, lending activity, interest rates, investment, and inflation,” wrote Oscar Jorda, a research adviser.
This would have been a great paper…two years ago. At this point, it’s conventional wisdom.
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/forexlive-rss?d=yIl2AUoC8zA (http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/forexlive-rss?a=vuQBNzPEV-o:tnlFxpvLaD0:yIl2AUoC8zA) http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/forexlive-rss?i=vuQBNzPEV-o:tnlFxpvLaD0:V_sGLiPBpWU (http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/forexlive-rss?a=vuQBNzPEV-o:tnlFxpvLaD0:V_sGLiPBpWU) http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/forexlive-rss?d=qj6IDK7rITs (http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/forexlive-rss?a=vuQBNzPEV-o:tnlFxpvLaD0:qj6IDK7rITs)
Read more... (http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/forexlive-rss/~3/vuQBNzPEV-o/)